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What does it mean for something to be possible, plausible, or probable?

FrumiousBandersnatch

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If it's not "possible" based on empirical cause/effect justification, who gets to decide if it's a "plausible" extension to the "natural laws"?
I'm suggesting predictions or implications of the physics (mathematics) underlying known successful models. A plausible extension would be consistent with, or subsume, the original model. Ultimately though, it must be useful - either by making some testable predictions, or by providing new techniques and approaches that could be useful in generating models that do have testable predictions.
 
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Chriliman

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By that standard it is possible to conclude that everything is designed.

I would say that it's logical presume that everything we observe is possibly a result of intention. This isn't necissarily a conclusion, but rather a logical presumption.

However ID theory asserts that only some things are designed, so the argument from functionality fails.

I wasn't addressing ID theory, I was addressing the use of the word 'possible' and how it can logically be used.
 
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Loudmouth

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I would say that it's logical presume that everything we observe is possibly a result of intention. This isn't necissarily a conclusion, but rather a logical presumption.

It is also logical to presume that everything we observe is possibly NOT a result of intention. The trick is being able to tell when something is probably NOT the result of a given mechanism. That is the trick used in science.
 
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Radrook

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Presuming that everything observed is possibly not the result of intention is illogical? By everything observed I'm sure you don't mean EVERYTHING observed since there are Cleary events which are not the result of someone's intention. They are called accidents. If indeed EVERYTHING would be tagged as intentional then the claim of innocence in court cases would be futile. Or we could claim innocence by claiming that although the murder happened it was not our intention but was intended by someone who controls all events and it was his intention not really yours. So when you say everything we view can be logically assumed to be intentional, I will assume you mean things which clearly display intentionality in order to prevent the claim from becoming nonsensical.
 
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Radrook

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It is also logical to presume that everything we observe is possibly NOT a result of intention. The trick is being able to tell when something is probably NOT the result of a given mechanism. That is the trick used in science.
Selective blindness isn't science.
 
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Michael

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I'm suggesting predictions or implications of the physics (mathematics) underlying known successful models.

GR is a known successful model, but stuffing magic into a GR formula, or specifically an "extended" version of GR doesn't give "magic" any extra 'viability' by virtual of help to get some mathematical fit using magic with GR.

Space expansion isn't a *requirement* of GR anymore than magic is a *requirement* of GR.

A plausible extension would be consistent with, or subsume, the original model.


A "magic" GR model might be arguably "consistent" with the original formulas, but so what? Once we start deviating from empirical physics, and enter into the realm of pure speculation, how much "confidence" could we claim to have in the idea anyway?

Ultimately though, it must be useful - either by making some testable predictions, or by providing new techniques and approaches that could be useful in generating models that do have testable predictions.

SUSY models of "dark matter", as well as other models of "dark matter", claimed to make all sorts of "testable" mathematical predictions, but alas none of them "passed" those tests, either in the observational cosmos, or in the lab. Now what? Shall we just ignore those "mathematical predictions" because they don't work out in our favor?

The fact we can insert magic into a GR formulas doesn't lend scientific legitimacy to the topic of "magic". Likewise, stuffing the supernatural claim of "space expansion" and "dark energy" into a GR formula doesn't lend any physical credibility to those claims either. The fact we might get a mathematical fit to some observation with "magic" is ultimately irrelevant.

The fact that string theory can be made to look "consistent with" what we observe in 3D+Time really doesn't lend any additional credibility to that theory either.
 
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Radrook

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This brazen willingness to be unscientific while claiming admiration of and a strict adherence to science raises serious doubts concerning the sincerity of such claims. If indeed the standard is set very high for others but they refuse to abide by them themselves, then how can they expect to be taken seriously? The sad part about it is the vehement denial that they detect this glaring discrepancy while pompously posturing as unwavering defenders of both science and logic.
 
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Mountainmike

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Your definitions are very muddled at a philosophical level

Take this..
"based on our understanding of how things work. The critical part of this is that there must be some sort of evidence"

The first part "understanding of how" is a statement based on whether a relationship can be derived or approximated in the axiomatic model of science. All so called "understanding" is whether or not the phenomenon is modelled in that framework.

"there must be some sort of evidence" refers to empirical observation, NOT whether or not it can be approximated or derived in the axiomatic model.

The two things are chalk and cheese, yet you somehow try to relate them.

I have cited before the wholesale misunderstandings of ohms law and how it impacts those spheres to illustrate that difference.

Ohms law is a limited scope empirical observation model.

The equation (more correctly and equivalence) almost universally but wrongly attributed as ohms law, lives in the axiomatic model as the definition of resistance. That equivalence holds true, whether or not ohms law does.

Also the evidence, that is observation lives in an observation projection. Much can exist that it is not observable, which is constrained by our senses, therefore the lack of evidence for it, does not make it impossible, or even implausible.

The words possible, plausible and probable are in almost all cases used to describe a persons level of faith in the existence of something. Although the last "probable" does have clear systematic meaning.

Most atheists believe in a hole in the paradigm of life as a biochemical accident called abiogenesis. It is not a theory, nor even a valid scientific hypothesis. There is no evidence nor anything in the axiomatic model.

Yet they call it possible, plausible or probable, depending on emotion not science. There is far more evidence for (such as) bread became flesh in the eucharist, yet this is discounted for emotive rather than scientific reason.

Probability is also widely misunderstood. Take dawkins wholesale misunderstanding of probability applied to quantum chemistry has led to a wholly false premise. But there is atheism for you. It is a belief that affects dawkins judgement.

The annals of science are littered with bad judgement influenced by atheist belief. It is laughable how science loses all objectivity when it gets close to matters with theistic overtones.

Thousands of examples could be cited.



 
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Radrook

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Plausible and possible are almost synonyms meaning that whatever is under consideration can exist, happen or be accomplished. Probable means that whatever is under consideration is likely to happen or be accomplished.
 
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TBDude65

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You've made an erroneous assumption in that I said that the evidence must be empirical and/or observational. I did not say that and you should not have assumed that.

What it takes for something to be possible is a reason to believe that it exists beyond the imagination.
 
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Mountainmike

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What you said is purely subjective
"the" imagination is not an objective reality independent of an observer
"Your" imagination may be more limited than others.
But Possibility is unchanged by your inability to perceive it - or indeed the likelihood that it occurs.

Take. There is no evidence whatsoever for abiogenesis.
There is plenty of analytical evidence for bread became flesh in eucharistic miracles.

By your rules, abiogenesis is not possible. Eucharistic miracles certainly are.
But Most atheists would disagree,
because for them "possibility" is contingent on them "liking" the proposition.
They "Like" abiogenessis. They "dislike" eucharistic miracles.
 
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Speedwell

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So what you are claiming is that there are entities and phenomena in the universe which have no Final cause? You put yourself in the position that the entire universe was not created by God, but only parts of it.
 
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TBDude65

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I don't think you realize what you are arguing for or against with respect to the imagination, but you certainly aren't arguing against any point I made. For instance, I did NOT say the imagination was an objective reality independent of an observer.

Secondly, what limits anyone's imagination? How do you know if someone's imagination is more or less "limited" and what does that even mean in the context of this discussion?

Also, there is evidence of abiogenesis. Life. Life is the evidence of abiogenesis and there are multiple natural hypotheses about how abiogenesis works. What there is no evidence of is a supernatural "consciousness" being involved in any part of the formation of life or the Earth or the Universe.

People have imagined such a scenario, but it requires a deviation from what we know to be true about the way the universe works.
 
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Michael

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Life is the evidence of abiogenesis and there are multiple natural hypotheses about how abiogenesis works.

Even that statement is ultimately a statement of faith on your part.

I could just as easily say that human experiences of the "effect" of "God" in their lives is evidence of God. The cause/effect relationship might not be as advertised, and the observed effect might have multiple valid alternatives.

Is life on Earth also evidence of Panspermia and intelligent design?
 
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TBDude65

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Life is evidence life is here and that it is plausible for life to arise on Earth. That is all that is necessary in order to construct a hypothesis about how life got here.

So sure, you could propose life as evidence for intelligent design but the onus is now on you to demonstrate that it is possible. Step 1, show that the intelligence you propose exists.

As for showing "that human experiences of the "effect" of "God" in their lives is evidence of God." You are almost correct. It is evidence that they believe their god is involved in their life, but is not evidence of their god.
 
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Michael

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Life is evidence life is here and that it is plausible for life to arise on Earth. That is all that is necessary in order to construct a hypothesis about how life got here.

Ok, I'll accept that life is evidence that life currently exists on Earth, but the fact that life currently exists on Earth might be due to any number of possible explanations.

It's mere existence on Earth isn't actually even evidence that life originated on Earth, let alone evidence that life formed "naturally" on Earth without any type of "intelligent intervention".

So sure, you could propose life as evidence for intelligent design but the onus is now on you to demonstrate that it is possible. Step 1, show that the intelligence you propose exists.

Before we even bring the concept of "intelligent design" into the discussion, how did you personally decide whether abiogenesis or panspermia was 'better' supported by the existence of life on Earth? How is the mere existence of life on Earth evidence of abiogenesis, and not also evidence of panspermia, or any other theory of life that we happen to start with?

As for showing "that human experiences of the "effect" of "God" in their lives is evidence of God." You are almost correct. It is evidence that they believe their god is involved in their life, but is not evidence of their god.

Likewise the mere existence of life on Earth isn't direct evidence of either Panspermia or abiogenesis. Multiple theories might seek to "explain" the very same "observation", just as you're offering an alternative explanation for other people's "experiences", without the benefit of having experienced them.
 
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Michael

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Life is the evidence of abiogenesis....

That's the claim that is a "statement of faith". Your assertion that the mere presence of life on Earth is a form of "evidence" to support abiogenesis is false, otherwise it would also have to apply to panspermia, and/or any other theory of life that we might propose. They would all enjoy exactly the same amount of supporting "evidence" based on the mere presence of life on Earth.
 
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Mountainmike

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The point I made was fair.
On philosophical matters precision is everything.
You said
"What it takes for something to be possible is a reason to believe that it exists beyond the imagination."
But the problem is "imagination" is a subjective thing, so in relating "possible" to whether or not it is "beyond imagination" you are also making the "possible" subjective.

As for abiogenesis, it is just a void with pure speculation.
And again - being precise - it is not a hypothesis nor are there any hypotheses for it.
Why?
Because in precise scientific terms,to be a hypothesis it has to be testable. There is no testable idea. Nor anything that either does repeat or can be made to repeat. So "abiogenessis" is simply the name for a void in the paradigm of life as a biochemical accident. It is not a valid scientific hypothesis. It is pure speculation. Nothing else.

And on the final point.
I have already stated there is plenty of (for example) forensic evidence of bread changing to heart myocardium in so called eucharistic miracles. And because of the white cells observed it is live at the point of sampling according to forensic cell biochemistry as science presently understands "life".
So..if it is a war on evidence, there is far more evidence for theistic interpretation of life, than by random chance abiogenesis.
And that is a fact. Uncomfortable for atheists. A fact none the less.

Read it. Get the evidence on sokolka, buenos aires, tixtla, legnica, lanciano even. Take a view. The "day job" of the people who prepared the slides is forensic criminal investigation. You would trust them implicitly on a life or death criminal case as "beyond reasonable doubt". But I bet you don't trust the same people when they come up with conclusions such as those!

In terms of your definitions.
Possible is unconstrained. Anything is possible - we cannot know until "it happens" and the fact it has happened once, does not necessarily mean it can happen again. Science only studies that which repeats. But that does allow the conclusion that " to exist, something must repeat, so be capable of scientific investigation" - which is atheist pseudoscience at work. being precise in philosophical terms , the inability to analyze somethign that only happens once unexpectedly is only a limitation on science not a limitation on the universe to do such things.

There is a stage beyond that. Although whether "Plausible" is the right word I doubt.

"Plausible"...( to use your word - I might prefer "justifiable speculation" ) means that somewhere in the axiomatic or empirical models of science there has to be a reason to suspect something can , should or will happen. But there is the problem..the axiomatic model is not the universe. So "plausibilty" from the axiomatic model implies nothing necessarily about plausibiilty in the real univers.e

Probable is simply a number generally derived from the axiomatic model. For sure...according to the axiomatic model, the particles of the monitor you are looking at in principle can crystallise on observation at the end of your nose, so giving you a bloody nose.
But the wave functions are just a model. They do not imply the ability of a real monitor to crystallise at the end of your nose, however "improbable" the math says it is.

And that is where dawkins gets it so badly wrong.
That even if quantum chemistry modelled the real world in the "Long tail" distribution - His presumption of the right chemicals in the right places happening to allow life to pop into existence by random accident means that he has not grasped just how small even the theoretic probabilities are mind blowingly small.... So the fact there may be " a lot of places for life to happen" is largely irrelevant to his argument, that even if likelihood is small, given long enough, it will happen. He should look at the math! And even then the math is not the universe!



 
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TagliatelliMonster

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What about the function of a sharp random rock that a cat is using to scratch itself in places it can't reach itself, by rubbing up against it?

When you ask kids the question "is the rock sharp for the purpose of cats being able to scratch themselves, or do the cats simply make clever use of a rock that happens to be sharp?", those under 6 years old will usually go for the teleological answer: the rock is sharp for the purpose of cats scratching themselves.

When they get older, they grow out of that sort of teleological fallacy.

Clearly, "function" is thus not an accurate criteria to conclude "intentional design".
Clearly, things can gain function or attributed function without those things being "intentionally designed" for that function.
 
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