At the core of the “it’ll get worse before it gets better” fallacy lies a psychological phenomenon known as
confirmation bias. This bias refers to the tendency to favor information confirming one’s preexisting beliefs or predictions. When a situation worsens, the person offering the vague prediction can claim that their foresight was accurate. When things unexpectedly improve, the same person can attribute the improvement to their expertise or intervention. Either way, the outcome supports their position.
This is particularly dangerous when the person making the prediction is an expert, a leader, or someone in a position of authority. They can position themselves so that they can’t lose. If things worsen, their prediction is confirmed. If they improve, it’s a result of their actions. This allows them to evade responsibility, even if their actions—or lack thereof—are directly contributing to the situation.
Confirmation bias makes it difficult for people to critically assess the situation and recognize that the “it’ll get worse before it gets better” narrative is a form of evasion. It encourages passivity in the face of problems and allows people to keep moving forward without genuinely addressing the root causes of the issues at hand. This is why it’s essential to question the validity of such statements and look for clear, tangible evidence of progress or regression.