New Statistical Study Shows Vatican II Triggered Global Decline In Mass Attendance

Michie · Jul 29, 2025

From the summary of a major new paper just published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), in Cambridge, Massachusetts, authored by some of the greatest names in Economic research, including the famous Dr. Barro, of Harvard University, Dr. Dewitte, of the University of Oxford, and Dr. Iannaccone, of Chapman University:

Looking Backward: Long-Term Religious Service Attendance in 66 Countries

Robert J. Barro, Edgard Dewitte & Laurence Iannaccone

Issue Date July 2025

The attendance rate at religious services is an important variable for the sociology and economics of religion, but long-term and global data are scarce. Retrospective questions from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP) allow the construction of rates of religious-service attendance back as far as the 1920s in 66 countries, half from the “Global South.” A number of checks support the reliability of the retrospective information. One exercise demonstrates the consistency between retrospective and contemporaneous survey data when the two overlap. Another procedure shows that the retrospective values are similar when generated from individual ISSP surveys for 1991, 1998, 2008, and 2018; that is, there is no clear dependence of memory on the number of years of recall. The new data document a century-long “Great Religious Divergence” between North and South. We use the data to carry out event studies for effects on religious-service attendance of two major events. Vatican II, in 1962-1965, triggered a decline in worldwide Catholic attendance relative to that in other denominations. In contrast, the endings of Communism in the early 1990s did not systematically affect religious-service attendance. Finally, in a large sample, religious-service attendance responds positively to wars and depressions. [source]

From the text of the working paper itself, available in PDF for download at the linked website, comes this:

Continued below.

Conclusion of Major New Economic Research Paper: "Vatican II, in 1962-1965, triggered a decline in worldwide Catholic attendance relative to that in other denominations."

From the summary of a major new paper just published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), in Cambridge, Massachusetts, auth...

rorate-caeli.blogspot.com

chevyontheriver · Jul 29, 2025

Michie said:
From the summary of a major new paper just published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), in Cambridge, Massachusetts, authored by some of the greatest names in Economic research, including the famous Dr. Barro, of Harvard University, Dr. Dewitte, of the University of Oxford, and Dr. Iannaccone, of Chapman University:

Looking Backward: Long-Term Religious Service Attendance in 66 Countries

Robert J. Barro, Edgard Dewitte & Laurence Iannaccone

Issue Date July 2025

From the text of the working paper itself, available in PDF for download at the linked website, comes this:

Continued below.

Conclusion of Major New Economic Research Paper: "Vatican II, in 1962-1965, triggered a decline in worldwide Catholic attendance relative to that in other denominations."

From the summary of a major new paper just published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), in Cambridge, Massachusetts, auth...

rorate-caeli.blogspot.com

I think this will be significant. I also think it will be misused by the sedevacantist opponents of Vatican II that are now so popular. Some big things happened around Vatican II, and it was a very mixed bag of things.

Valletta · Jul 29, 2025

chevyontheriver said:
I think this will be significant. I also think it will be misused by the sedevacantist opponents of Vatican II that are now so popular. Some big things happened around Vatican II, and it was a very mixed bag of things.

They're economists, what do they know about religions? And what constitutes a trigger? Did they take evil into account? To me it seems clear that Vatican II was used as an excuse by many to sell the cultural revolution to Catholics. People said Vatican II said this or that when it really did not.

chevyontheriver · Jul 29, 2025

Valletta said:
They're economists, what do they know about religions? And what constitutes a trigger? Did they take evil into account? To me it seems clear that Vatican II was used as an excuse by many to sell the cultural revolution to Catholics. People said Vatican II said this or that when it really did not.

Economists measure causes and effects pretty well. They don’t need to know beans about religion to discover true things about causality, that ‘somehow’ Vatican II related events ended up causing more of a decline in the Catholic Church than in other religions, so we can’t just blame general secularization.

I have opinions, but first I want to say that what we call Vatican II can, in some people’s minds, range from Lumen Gentium to birth control to the Bugnini liturgy to no longer fasting to all of the priests and nuns quitting to get married. There is the ‘letter’ of Vatican II (sometimes ambiguous) and the ‘spirit’ of Vatican II (sometimes nefarious). What caused what is not settled by this study, only that something got unleashed. And we know, we already knew, something got unleashed and it wasn’t all that pretty.

I’m hoping this study can enable some re-examination of Vatican II, much like that done in 1985 by pope John Paul II. We now have lots of blind VII advocates and blind VII opponents squaring off. What scares me is the sedevacantists seem to be surging in response to the woke pope Francis acolytes.

Valletta · Jul 29, 2025

Michie said:
From the summary of a major new paper just published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), in Cambridge, Massachusetts, authored by some of the greatest names in Economic research, including the famous Dr. Barro, of Harvard University, Dr. Dewitte, of the University of Oxford, and Dr. Iannaccone, of Chapman University:

Looking Backward: Long-Term Religious Service Attendance in 66 Countries

Robert J. Barro, Edgard Dewitte & Laurence Iannaccone

Issue Date July 2025

From the text of the working paper itself, available in PDF for download at the linked website, comes this:

Continued below.

Conclusion of Major New Economic Research Paper: "Vatican II, in 1962-1965, triggered a decline in worldwide Catholic attendance relative to that in other denominations."

From the summary of a major new paper just published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), in Cambridge, Massachusetts, auth...

rorate-caeli.blogspot.com

Barro, the guy who says that the increase in canonization of saints by the Catholic Church is the "Church’s competitive response to Protestantism.”

chevyontheriver · Jul 29, 2025

Valletta said:
Barro, the guy who says that the increase in canonization of saints by the Catholic Church is the "Church’s competitive response to Protestantism.”

Well, these days everybody gets canonized. I suppose even the damned are maybe being canonized. Luther was all but canonized in 2017. In a few years we can canonize Calvin and Henry VIII and Servetus. Calvin and Servetus, that would be a mind bender.

Michie · Jul 29, 2025

chevyontheriver said:
Well, these days everybody gets canonized. I suppose even the damned are maybe being canonized. Luther was all but canonized in 2017. In a few years we can canonize Calvin and Henry VIII and Servetus. Calvin and Servetus, that would be a mind bender.

What have I forgotten about Luther and the Church in 2017??

chevyontheriver · Jul 30, 2025

Michie said:
What have I forgotten about Luther and the Church in 2017??

Pope Francis. He all but officially canonized Martin Luther in 2017 for the 500th anniversary 'celebration' of the nailing of Luther's 95 theses to the door of the Wittenburg church.

Michie · Jul 30, 2025

chevyontheriver said:
Pope Francis. He all but officially canonized Martin Luther in 2017 for the 500th anniversary 'celebration' of the nailing of Luther's 95 theses to the door of the Wittenburg church.

Ah! I recall that now. That was very confusing to many. He was very difficult to figure out.

New Statistical Study Shows Vatican II Triggered Global Decline In Mass Attendance

Michie

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Conclusion of Major New Economic Research Paper: "Vatican II, in 1962-1965, triggered a decline in worldwide Catholic attendance relative to that in other denominations."

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chevyontheriver

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Conclusion of Major New Economic Research Paper: "Vatican II, in 1962-1965, triggered a decline in worldwide Catholic attendance relative to that in other denominations."

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Valletta

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chevyontheriver

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Valletta

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Conclusion of Major New Economic Research Paper: "Vatican II, in 1962-1965, triggered a decline in worldwide Catholic attendance relative to that in other denominations."

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chevyontheriver

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Michie

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