Europe's New Security Architecture

mindlight · Feb 24, 2022

The invasion of Ukraine changes everything. For the first time since WW2, we have a major land war going on in Europe. Assumptions of peace and safety in our time have been shattered by the reality of Russian aggression and by Putin's narrative relating to the illegitimacy of all new NATO members since 1999.

What are the major lessons and what should the new European security architecture look like? I have the following suggestions which I would love to discuss:

1) NATO and our alliance with the USA especially remains fundamental to European Security
2) NATO members have not been spending enough on defense for some years now and at a minimum need to raise levels to the recommended 2%.
3) Europe is too dependent on Russian gas and needs to review its energy sources. This is an opportunity to expedite the Green Economy and new technologies to replace fossil fuels.
4) Germany was mistaken to close down its nuclear power stations before it had a Green Alternative in place and to rely on gas from Russia for the transitory phase.
5) European security has been undermined by political elites that have placed business as usual and European idealism over the Real Politik essential to European security. The Schroeder/Merkel doctrine involved putting trade before human rights in its engagement with the Chinese and the Russians. This has benefitted multinational profit margins but has directly led to the current catastrophe of inflated energy prices and the prospect of war in our time.

We need to review how we do business in the future. But what changes are required?

Aussie Pete · Feb 24, 2022

mindlight said:
The invasion of Ukraine changes everything. For the first time since WW2, we have a major land war going on in Europe. Assumptions of peace and safety in our time have been shattered by the reality of Russian aggression and by Putin's narrative relating to the illegitimacy of all new NATO members since 1999.

What are the major lessons and what should the new European security architecture look like? I have the following suggestions which I would love to discuss:

1) NATO and our alliance with the USA especially remains fundamental to European Security
2) NATO members have not been spending enough on defense for some years now and at a minimum need to raise levels to the recommended 2%.
3) Europe is too dependent on Russian gas and needs to review its energy sources. This is an opportunity to expedite the Green Economy and new technologies to replace fossil fuels.
4) Germany was mistaken to close down its nuclear power stations before it had a Green Alternative in place and to rely on gas from Russia for the transitory phase.
5) European security has been undermined by political elites that have placed business as usual and European idealism over the Real Politik essential to European security. The Schroeder/Merkel doctrine involved putting trade before human rights in its engagement with the Chinese and the Russians. This has benefitted multinational profit margins but has directly led to the current catastrophe of inflated energy prices and the prospect of war in our time.

We need to review how we do business in the future. But what changes are required?

Nothing will change until nations have to pay too high a price for attacking other nations. Putin read the situation perfectly. He's watched while China has broken international law with impunity. He's seen how North Korea gets away with murder and Iran continues to develop nukes. Sanctions? What have they achieved? Nothing. The European house of cards is collapsing. I don't know where this will end up, but so far it's Putin 10, Europe nil.

dqhall · Feb 24, 2022

We need to review how we do business in the future. But what changes are required?[/QUOTE]
Try to find inflation proof investments. If you want energy advice seek energy industry leaders.

Jesus fed 5,000 people bread and fish by a miracle. After he finished, he told them to waste nothing.

Russia took out Ukraine’s main air defenses within hours. They also destroyed warehouses. The Russians have cruise missiles..

trophy33 · Feb 24, 2022

mindlight said:
1) NATO and our alliance with the USA especially remains fundamental to European Security
2) NATO members have not been spending enough on defense for some years now and at a minimum need to raise levels to the recommended 2%.

Maybe these two points are contradictory to each other, in practical life.

Either European countries rely on the USA to save them (and therefore do not feel the need to have huge modern armies) or European countries will become more or less equal military partners to USA, with great armies and with a lot of money in it.

Currently, it seems that the EU/European countries are kind of in between, undecided which way to choose.

mindlight · Feb 24, 2022

Aussie Pete said:
Nothing will change until nations have to pay too high a price for attacking other nations. Putin read the situation perfectly. He's watched while China has broken international law with impunity. He's seen how North Korea gets away with murder and Iran continues to develop nukes. Sanctions? What have they achieved? Nothing. The European house of cards is collapsing. I don't know where this will end up, but so far it's Putin 10, Europe nil.

It is not just sanctions but also intelligence sharing and military equipment and supplies also. Russia may well take the country militarily but holding it will be a lot harder than it was for the Coalition to hold Afghanistan or Iraq. The people want their freedom.

mindlight · Feb 24, 2022

dqhall said:
We need to review how we do business in the future. But what changes are required?
Try to find inflation proof investments. If you want energy advice seek energy industry leaders.

Jesus fed 5,000 people bread and fish by a miracle. After he finished, he told them to waste nothing.

Russia took out Ukraine’s main air defenses within hours. They also destroyed warehouses. The Russians have cruise missiles..

Yes and a year from now with a Russian occupation force two soldiers will see a Ukrainian girl smile at them while two of her friends kill them with kitchen knives from behind. How will the tech help them hold the place?

mindlight · Feb 24, 2022

myst33 said:
Maybe these two points are contradictory to each other, in practical life.

Either European countries rely on the USA to save them (and therefore do not feel the need to have huge modern armies) or European countries will become more or less equal military partners to USA, with great armies and with a lot of money in it.

Currently, it seems that the EU/European countries are kind of in between, undecided which way to choose.

Ukraine may be unable to defend itself against Russia but Germany, which has an economy about the same size as the real value of the Russian economy, should have adequate forces to defend itself even without American support. The new reality is that America is tired of wars at exactly the moment where it is dangerous for them to be so. Russia cannot be allowed to take advantage of that perceived weakness following the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Keeping the crucial Europe-American alliance depends on the Europeans playing their part, and paying their way in blood and treasure.

Albion · Feb 24, 2022

mindlight said:
The invasion of Ukraine changes everything. For the first time since WW2, we have a major land war going on in Europe. Assumptions of peace and safety in our time have been shattered by the reality of Russian aggression and by Putin's narrative relating to the illegitimacy of all new NATO members since 1999.

What are the major lessons and what should the new European security architecture look like? I have the following suggestions which I would love to discuss:

1) NATO and our alliance with the USA especially remains fundamental to European Security
2) NATO members have not been spending enough on defense for some years now and at a minimum need to raise levels to the recommended 2%.
3) Europe is too dependent on Russian gas and needs to review its energy sources. This is an opportunity to expedite the Green Economy and new technologies to replace fossil fuels.
4) Germany was mistaken to close down its nuclear power stations before it had a Green Alternative in place and to rely on gas from Russia for the transitory phase.
5) European security has been undermined by political elites that have placed business as usual and European idealism over the Real Politik essential to European security. The Schroeder/Merkel doctrine involved putting trade before human rights in its engagement with the Chinese and the Russians. This has benefitted multinational profit margins but has directly led to the current catastrophe of inflated energy prices and the prospect of war in our time.

We need to review how we do business in the future. But what changes are required?

I have to take exception to point 3 although I respect your other points. "Going green" is an illusion, certainly in the short run.

Someone needs to go to Delaware and wake up the American president, talk sense to him and hope he will muster the resources sufficient to defy his extremist advisors, and return America to the energy exporting nation that she had been prior to his administration.

This would allow Europe to have energy resources independent of Putin's Russia and deny him the monies he needs to continue with his expansionist plans.

mindlight · Feb 24, 2022

Albion said:
I have to take exception to point 3 although I respect your other points. "Going green" is an illusion, certainly in the short run.

Someone needs to go to Delaware and wake up the American president, talk sense to him and hope he will muster the resources sufficient to defy his extremist advisors, and return America to the energy exporting nation that she had been prior to his administration.

This would allow Europe to have energy resources independent of Putin's Russia and deny him the monies he needs to continue with his expansionist plans.

The acceptance of climate change is a given in Europe. Also, we are not as well blessed with oil and gas as are the Americans and are not inclined to poison our water tables with fracking. Wind Energy and its spin-offs have developed significantly in recent years and on the scale now being talked about can replace much of our fossil fuel usage. The alternative is a dependence on Russian gas or Arab oil. American extraction costs make their gas about 40% more expensive than Russian gas and so is not as attractive an option as you might think. You may find you need it more than we do as supplies struggle to meet American demand. Also, the real reason for the re-emergence of energy deficits in the USA, the US's vulnerability to global energy market pricing, and the increase in American energy bills is the growth of demand in the USA exceeding supply and has nothing to do with Biden.

dqhall · Feb 24, 2022

mindlight said:
The acceptance of climate change is a given in Europe. Also, we are not as well blessed with oil and gas as are the Americans and are not inclined to poison our water tables with fracking. Wind Energy and its spin-offs have developed significantly in recent years and on the scale now being talked about can replace much of our fossil fuel usage. The alternative is a dependence on Russian gas or Arab oil. American extraction costs make their gas about 40% more expensive than Russian gas and so is not as attractive an option as you might think. You may find you need it more than we do as supplies struggle to meet American demand. Also, the real reason for the re-emergence of energy deficits in the USA, the US's vulnerability to global energy market pricing, and the increase in American energy bills is the growth of demand in the USA exceeding supply and has nothing to do with Biden.

Fracking is safe. Trusting Russia for energy is naive.

You do not have a natural gas pipeline from North America to Europe anyway. After ten years of development, the U.S. is nearly the largest exporter of LNG. Most of it is spoken for.
U.S. to be world's biggest LNG exporter in 2022

It has taken years to expand LNG export capacity. The U.S. has enough for itself. Most other NATO nations are not self sufficient in energy. As nat gas became expensive, power plants switched to coal. Europe might rather freeze than burn coal. China and India consume piles of it.

trophy33 · Feb 24, 2022

dqhall said:
Europe might rather freeze than burn coal. China and India consume piles of it.

It destroys the planet, though. If we want to breathe and live healthier life, we must clean our air, our water and our lands. That requires a clean energy.

India and China are developing economies, Europe is on the top of the most advanced nations. If somebody must be the first to sacrifice some money to show an example, it should be Europe or USA.

Albion · Feb 24, 2022

mindlight said:
Also, the real reason for the re-emergence of energy deficits in the USA, the US's vulnerability to global energy market pricing, and the increase in American energy bills is the growth of demand in the USA exceeding supply and has nothing to do with Biden.

Well, that part ^ I think is untrue, but I did appreciate the points made leading up to it.

Albion · Feb 24, 2022

myst33 said:
It destroys the planet, though. If we want to breathe and live healthier life, we must clean our air, our water and our lands. That requires a clean energy.

So long as China and India are expanding their use of fossil fuels, it's a hopeless project. And the part of Ukraine that is being conquered at present is coal producing territory.

Supposedly, Russia is set to sell that to China for its expanding industries. Meanwhile, Europeans and North Americans think that the new windmills and solar panels are the answer to polluted air and water everywhere and suppose that these are not polluting (false) and will last forever (also false) once installed.

trophy33 · Feb 24, 2022

Albion said:
So long as China and India are expanding their use of fossil fuels, it's a hopeless project.

Somebody must be first.

Also, its unthinkable that Chinese or Indians want to destroy their air, lands, water and to have unhealthy population and to have their cities full of smog.
Indeed, when they will develop their economies and technologies enough, they will also go for the clean energy.

Albion · Feb 24, 2022

myst33 said:
Somebody must be first.

Not unless there is a chance of the project meeting with success.

Also, its unthinkable that Chinese or Indians want to destroy their air, lands, water and to have unhealthy population and to have their cities full of smog.

You may say that, but they have endured it for years now and have no ability to prevent their governments from increasing it as is planned. Besides, the appeal of better standards of living for people in those countries, and in others as well, counter the daydreams of people elsewhere who do not face the same realities of daily life that these non-Western nations face.

trophy33 · Feb 24, 2022

Albion said:
Not unless there is a chance of the project meeting with success.

So what do you propose, to do nothing and to let the global warming and the global pollution accelerate to the point in which we all die?

Pollution made in China and India is still smaller (and the global warming rate slower) than in China, India, USA, EU, Japan etc together, if no country will do nothing.

dqhall · Feb 24, 2022

myst33 said:
It destroys the planet, though. If we want to breathe and live healthier life, we must clean our air, our water and our lands. That requires a clean energy.

India and China are developing economies, Europe is on the top of the most advanced nations. If somebody must be the first to sacrifice some money to show an example, it should be Europe or USA.

People are complaining more about high gasoline prices than the earth warming two degrees Fahrenheit. It would be great to have clean energy. We do not have enough of it. Where I live there are no windmills and few solar cells.

trophy33 · Feb 24, 2022

dqhall said:
People are complaining more about high gasoline prices than the earth warming two degrees Fahrenheit.

Because they do not understand what it means for the global weather, for example for hurricanes or for oceanic and marine life.

dqhall said:
It would be great to have clean energy. We do not have enough of it. Where I live there are no windmills and few solar cells.

It needs much more investments and inventions, current clean energy technologies are quite primitive and ineffective. Except of nuclear energy. But solar panels are much cheaper and much more effective than 10 years ago, so some advancement can be seen.

Albion · Feb 24, 2022

myst33 said:
So what do you propose, to do nothing and to let the global warming and the global pollution accelerate to the point in which we all die?

If that were my proposal, I assure you I would have said so already.

The progress towards a Utopia on Earth takes time. Right now, we're talking about how to head off World War III or something similar.

trophy33 · Feb 24, 2022

Albion said:
If that were my proposal, I assure you I would have said so already.

The progress towards a Utopia on Earth takes time. Right now, we're talking about how to head off World War III or something similar.

That does not mean that an average American family needs 3 cars that are huge almost as a bus. Or that people need to fly on vacations over the half of planet. Or to live the consumerism to the fullest, producing unbelievable amount of waste. Or that people should not support clean energy in politics, even though they will have less money for a new iphone.

We must start somewhere. And there is not much time anymore, to do nothing. According to scientists, we must make the turn in few future years or else it will be irreversible. We certainly cannot return back to coal.

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