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Base Rate Question

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lawtonfogle

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The following two questions are hypothetical situations which are not related.

A room has 10% males and 90% females in it. A person named Bob is called out of the room. What is the chance Bob is male?

A room has 90% males and 10% females in it. A person named Bob is called out of the room. What is the chance Bob is male?



Ok, now that you have answered both, does the base rate affect your decision at all? Should it? And if you have a problem answering either hypothetical, you are just a horrible person .
 

atomweaver

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Insufficient data for a 100% firm answer. To provide a 100% correct answer, you need to provide one more piece of data; "what percentage of women in each room are named Bob". (...and I accept your label of being a horrible person, its meaningless coming from an anonymous internet poster Hey, so sue me, I know a girl named Kieth.)

With the incomplete data presented, 100% chance in both cases; the base rates are far less important than the identifier for the person called out....
 
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Ectezus

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lawtonfogle said:
A room has 10% males and 90% females in it. A person named Bob is called out of the room. What is the chance Bob is male?
Click to expand...
10%


A room has 90% males and 10% females in it. A person named Bob is called out of the room. What is the chance Bob is male?
Click to expand...
90%

You could apply the percentage of women named bob and man named bob though, but I'm not going to look those up for you.

- Ectezus
 
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