After Arafat
by Barry Rubin
When Yasir Arafat became seriously ill in late 2003, Palestinians were near panic for several days. Officials did not know how to handle the crisis. Ahmad Dudin, former Fatah leader in the Hebron region, summed up the dilemma in this way: "The Palestinian Authority has always been a one-man operation. Arafat never really agreed to share power. That is the problem."
[1]
The problem is not just that Arafat has not designated a successor. It is that he has blocked the development of anybody who could be a successor. Equally, he has crippled the creation of institutions that could provide for a smooth transition, promote the development of a new leader, mediate disputes among competing candidates, or check the power of a future dictator.
Although Palestinian politics are often regarded as more pluralistic than those of neighboring Arab countries, they depend upon one man. A Palestinian official once said, "Egyptian politics is like the pyramid: President Husni Mubarak is at the top, and there's a very wide base. Syrian politics is like the Eiffel Tower: President Hafez al-Assad [today his son, Bashar] is at the top, and there are a few people on each level. Palestinian politics is the shape of Yasir Arafat: Yasir Arafat is Palestinian politics and that's all there is to it."
[2]
But at some point, Arafat will depart the scene. He is currently seventy-four years old, and while his ill health has often been exaggerated, he cannot be described as a healthy man. What will happen when a transition is forced on the Palestinian movement by his demise?
Speculating on the precise outcome is only of limited value. Much will depend on timing, detail, and even happenstance. It is more useful to ask what the succession dilemma itself reveals about the Palestinian movement, Arab politics, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The best entry to that question is to focus not on
who but rather
what would replace Arafat.