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Discussion and Debate
Discussion and Debate
Physical & Life Sciences
The Sun is shutting down , is another LIA coming ?
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<blockquote data-quote="Chalnoth" data-source="post: 54670824" data-attributes="member: 159254"><p>Given that we have a strong El Nino this year, yes, the global temperature will drop shortly. We can't say precisely when, but this is a short-term peak. Of course, the overall trend is still increasing.</p><p></p><p></p><p>You can view the current temperature anomaly here:</p><p><a href="http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/" target="_blank">AMSU-A Temperatures</a></p><p></p><p>It's still as warm as ever. Like I said, this short-term warm period (due to the El Nino) won't last, but the overall long-term trend is still towards warming.</p><p></p><p></p><p>The Southern Hemisphere isn't warming as rapidly, but it's still warming:</p><p><img src="http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A3.lrg.gif" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p>Also, this year the temperature anomaly for Antarctica is definitely on the warm side:</p><p><img src="http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/2010vs2005+1998.gif" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p></p><p></p><p>Given the current trend, we can expect the global temperature anomaly (as measured by Gistemp) to get around 1C in, very roughly, 30 years, give or take a decade. The UAH temperature anomaly has a higher offset due to the later start date, so obviously it'll take longer with that data set.</p><p></p><p>According to this <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html" target="_blank">El Nino forecast</a>, it looks like El Nino conditions may be weakening towards neutral conditions later in the year. So a short-term drop from the current highs within the next few months is reasonable.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Chalnoth, post: 54670824, member: 159254"] Given that we have a strong El Nino this year, yes, the global temperature will drop shortly. We can't say precisely when, but this is a short-term peak. Of course, the overall trend is still increasing. You can view the current temperature anomaly here: [url=http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/]AMSU-A Temperatures[/url] It's still as warm as ever. Like I said, this short-term warm period (due to the El Nino) won't last, but the overall long-term trend is still towards warming. The Southern Hemisphere isn't warming as rapidly, but it's still warming: [img]http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A3.lrg.gif[/img] Also, this year the temperature anomaly for Antarctica is definitely on the warm side: [img]http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/2010vs2005+1998.gif[/img] Given the current trend, we can expect the global temperature anomaly (as measured by Gistemp) to get around 1C in, very roughly, 30 years, give or take a decade. The UAH temperature anomaly has a higher offset due to the later start date, so obviously it'll take longer with that data set. According to this [url=http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html]El Nino forecast[/url], it looks like El Nino conditions may be weakening towards neutral conditions later in the year. So a short-term drop from the current highs within the next few months is reasonable. [/QUOTE]
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The Sun is shutting down , is another LIA coming ?
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