Solar activity predicted to fall 60% in 2030s, to 'mini ice age' levels

[nightflight]

A new model of the Sun's solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun's 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955.htm

 

[NightHawkeye]

Shh ... don't tell anyone.

 

[Billnew]

no, no, no.
Check with all the MMGW people, this is not right.
You can't control the people with an ice age. You can only control the people if you get them believing
the energy they use today will kill the world in 1-2 decades.

Ice age loses all the power.

 

[Paradoxum]

Most people, like me, who accept that MMGW is happening, don't say it because they want to control people. We think it's true; the scientists aren't lying, and the theory makes sense.

I don't know enough about this mini ice age theory to have an opinion on it.

 

[essentialsaltes]

If 'solar activity' decreased 60%, we'd all die. But this is making some tenuous connections between solar magnetism and solar output.

Phil Plait covered the basic mechanism 4 years ago. It's not at all clear that solar magnetism is related to climate.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astr...for_a_new_ice_age.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_top

 

[MehGuy]

Yeah. 1.2 billion people are expected to die.

 

[ChristsSoldier115]

So its like.. going to even out in 2030? cool.

 

[NightHawkeye]

Most people, like me, who accept that MMGW is happening, don't say it because they want to control people. We think it's true; the scientists aren't lying, and the theory makes sense.

I don't know enough about this mini ice age theory to have an opinion on it.

Hi, Paradoxum.

The earth undergoes periodic ice ages immediately after 5,000 to 10,000 years of inter-glacial warm spells. Our current inter-glacial has already lasted 10,000 years, longer than any recorded in the ice core data. Maybe this chart of ice core data will help ...

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The good news about entering another ice age is that it will happen over a number of human lifetimes so a person shouldn't have to worry too much about temperatures permanently dropping 20 degrees all at once.

 

[Vylo]

Whelp maybe it will cancel out the warming. Then we only have to deal with all the toxins and even further elevated CO2 levels........

 

[NightHawkeye]

Whelp maybe it will cancel out the warming. Then we only have to deal with all the toxins and even further elevated CO2 levels........

Possible.

It deserves to be mentioned that the ice ages have been demonstrably linked to celestial events ... not terrestrial activity.

 

[kit]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955.htm

So by solar activity you mean what? That statement could be taken to mean that the Sun will go to less than half power.

 

[NightHawkeye]

So by solar activity you mean what? That statement could be taken to mean that the Sun will go to less than half power.

One should read the article ... http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955.htm

A new model of the Sun's solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun's 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645.​

To directly address your question though, ... the solar activity in question aka sunspots.

 

[kit]

I have been aware of this hypothesis for a couple of years now. The high level of activity in the past couple of months hasn't fit the projection.

My rather facetious point though was that your opening post really could be misleading without more facts than you presented.

 

[NightHawkeye]

In fairness, it's not my OP. I'm merely an interested participant, same as yourself.

 

[Loudmouth]

Hi, Paradoxum.

The earth undergoes periodic ice ages immediately after 5,000 to 10,000 years of inter-glacial warm spells.

This is due to the tilt of the Earth and changes in the eccentricities of Earth's orbit. It isn't linked to 11 year solar cycles.

http://www.climatedata.info/Forcing/Forcing/milankovitchcycles.html

I think it should be pretty obvious that you don't get 10,000 year trends from 11 year cycles.

Also, nothing in the solar model discounts the physical facts of the greenhouse effect or the fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.

 

[NightHawkeye]

This is due to the tilt of the Earth and changes in the eccentricities of Earth's orbit. It isn't linked to 11 year solar cycles.

http://www.climatedata.info/Forcing/Forcing/milankovitchcycles.html

I think it should be pretty obvious that you don't get 10,000 year trends from 11 year cycles.

Also, nothing in the solar model discounts the physical facts of the greenhouse effect or the fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.

Perhaps you should read the OP article, Loudmouth. It speaks to sunspot cycles which are hundreds of years.

 

[Loudmouth]

Perhaps you should read the OP article, Loudmouth. It speaks to sunspot cycles which are hundreds of years.

You don't get 10,000 year cycles from sunspot cycles that are hundreds of years. Also, we already found the correlation with Milankovitch cycles.

 

[NightHawkeye]

You don't get 10,000 year cycles from sunspot cycles that are hundreds of years.

But, there is the matter of correlation with little ice ages ... a matter of common sense given the slight variations in solar heating associated with the multi hundred year cycles.

Also, we already found the correlation with Milankovitch cycles.

Yes, the ice ages correlate with Milankovitch cycles. Imbrie provided proof of that.

 

[kit]

Well it is said "Little Ice Age". That is a rather hyperbolic title for a moderately cool period. The name is a bit of a misnomer. The Maunder Minimum may or may not be an example of a meta-cycle. We just don't have data enough to tell if the 11 year cycle is part of a larger pattern. Regardless a repeat of such a minimum wouldn't create an actual "ice age".

 

[Paradoxum]

Hi, Paradoxum.

The earth undergoes periodic ice ages immediately after 5,000 to 10,000 years of inter-glacial warm spells. Our current inter-glacial has already lasted 10,000 years, longer than any recorded in the ice core data. Maybe this chart of ice core data will help ...

That doesn't tell me if there's an ice age coming in my lifetime though.

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