Pandemic started in a lab:

hislegacy

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Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, Energy Department Now Says​

U.S. agency’s revised assessment is based on new intelligence​


WASHINGTON—The U.S. Energy Department has concluded that the Covid pandemic most likely arose from a laboratory leak, according to a classified intelligence report recently provided to the White House and key members of Congress.​
The shift by the Energy Department, which previously was undecided on how the virus emerged, is noted in an update to a 2021 document by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines’s office.​
 

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The tread title "Pandemic Started in a Lab" is misleading. There are still uncertainties as to how the pandemic started.

The conclusion from the energy department – which oversees a network of 17 US laboratories, including areas of advanced biology – is considered significant despite the fact that, as the report said, the agency made its updated judgment with “low confidence”.

The energy department’s updated findings run counter to reports by four other US intelligence agencies that concluded the epidemic started as the result of natural transmission from an infected animal. Two agencies remain undecided.

The CIA remains undecided between leak and natural transmission theories,
according to the National Intelligence Council study. But while the initial 2021 report did not reach a conclusion, it did offer a consensus view that Covid-19 was not part of a Chinese biological weapons program.

The National Security adviser, Jake Sullivan, acknowledged Sunday that there are a “variety of views” within US intelligence agencies on the issue.

“Some elements of the intelligence community have reached conclusions on one side, some on the other, and a number have said they just don’t have enough information to be sure,” Sullivan told CNN.


 
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Ana the Ist

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The tread title "Pandemic Started in a Lab" is misleading. There are still uncertainties as to how the pandemic started.

The conclusion from the energy department – which oversees a network of 17 US laboratories, including areas of advanced biology – is considered significant despite the fact that, as the report said, the agency made its updated judgment with “low confidence”.

A low confidence conclusion is a conclusion that should be taken with a grain of salt.


The energy department’s updated findings run counter to reports by four other US intelligence agencies that concluded the epidemic started as the result of natural transmission from an infected animal. Two agencies remain undecided.

How high was the confidence of these 4 agencies' conclusions?

Fair question....right?



The CIA remains undecided between leak and natural transmission theories, according to the National Intelligence Council study. But while the initial 2021 report did not reach a conclusion, it did offer a consensus view that Covid-19 was not part of a Chinese biological weapons program.

Biological weapon and lab leak aren't the same thing in case anyone is confused. These viruses get made in labs for reasons other than weaponry.

The National Security adviser, Jake Sullivan, acknowledged Sunday that there are a “variety of views” within US intelligence agencies on the issue.

“Some elements of the intelligence community have reached conclusions on one side, some on the other, and a number have said they just don’t have enough information to be sure,” Sullivan told CNN.



Odd then that we saw a coordinated effort to silence all discussion of the lab leak possibility.
 
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iluvatar5150

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Why does the US energy department have an opinion on the origin of a pandemic?

I was wondering that myself. Seems peculiar.
DOE oversees a number of top-level labs (e.g. Sandia, Lawrence Livermore), and according to the article, some of them do bio research.
 
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probinson

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Why does the US energy department have an opinion on the origin of a pandemic?

Why would the U.S. Department of Energy be weighing in on an investigation into the origins of Covid-19? The short answer is because the Energy Department has a special division that, as part of its mission to track and mitigate the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, specializes in the study of biological weapons such as viruses.
...
But hey, what would the U.S. Department of Energy know about researching the origin of a virus, huh?
 
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Nithavela

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Why would the U.S. Department of Energy be weighing in on an investigation into the origins of Covid-19? The short answer is because the Energy Department has a special division that, as part of its mission to track and mitigate the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, specializes in the study of biological weapons such as viruses.
...
But hey, what would the U.S. Department of Energy know about researching the origin of a virus, huh?
Thank you.

Looks to me like there is no consensus on this matter, more than 3 years after the outbreak. Maybe there never will be.
 
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durangodawood

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Lab mishap has always sounded reasonable. Same with transmission via food systems.

What I never liked was people trying to make political fuss about it prior to having good info. Thats America tho. Everything is mainly an opportunity to push buttons.
 
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probinson

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The only reason this became such a big deal is because there was such a concerted effort by the US government to classify anyone who believed the "lab-leak" theory as a conspiracy theorists. In 2020, even suggesting that SARS-CoV2 originated in a lab would get you censored or even banned on most social media platforms. It was complete taboo to even suggest it.

Whether or not SARS-CoV2 originated in a lab isn't the real story here. The real story is in how the government, and by proxy the media and big tech, took it upon themselves to censor discussion on what is now and always has been a plausible theory for the origin of the virus. And of course, this is going to fuel questions of why they were all so anxious to stifle all discussion of the possibility that the virus came from a lab.

That should concern people. And it's not just the origin of the virus that this pertains to. A recent op-ed on the topic of natural immunity in the WSJ summarizes it nicely.

The Lancet study’s vindication of natural immunity fits a pandemic pattern: The public-health clerisy rejects an argument that ostensibly threatens its authority; eventually it’s forced to soften its position in the face of incontrovertible evidence; and yet not once does it acknowledge its opponents were right.
Virus origins, lockdowns, school closures, masking, natural immunity, vaccine mandates, vaccines preventing transmission, the need for everyone to be boosted annually... the list goes on and on (and on and on) of things that just one year ago had you questioned aloud, you would have been criticized, ostracized and perhaps outright banned from social media platforms. Those same topics are all up for legitimate debate now. And this is the danger of allowing the government to decide what is and is not acceptable to be discussed in the public square.

That's really why I'm interested in this topic. I want to know why the government was so very anxious to stifle all discussion on this topic when it has been a plausible explanation since day one.
 
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probinson

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The Director of the FBI, Christopher Wray, has now publicly put his weight behind the lab-leak theory.

FBI director Christopher Wray on Tuesday spoke publicly for the first time on the bureau's assessment that the COVID-19 virus "most likely" originated from a potential lab incident in Wuhan, China.
He also faulted the Chinese government in an interview with Fox News' Bret Baier for, he said, trying to thwart the work of U.S. agencies investigating the beginnings of the global pandemic.
"The FBI has for quite some time now assessed that the origins of the pandemic are most likely a potential lab incident in Wuhan," he said.
 
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probinson

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Let's take a stroll down memory lane and remember how the media addressed people who promoted the now FBI-endorsed lab leak theory.

MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace, one of the media's most rabidly anti-GOP voices, blamed then-President Trump for pushing intelligence agencies into investigating one of his favorite "conspiracy theories."
...
"The effort comes as President Trump escalates a public campaign to blame China for the pandemic," the Times reporters added. "Most intelligence agencies remain skeptical that conclusive evidence of a link to a lab can be found."
MSNBC’s Joy Reid took things even further, calling the lab leak theory "debunked bunkum" being pushed by Trump.
New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman appeared on CNN’s since-canceled "New Day"to suggest the theory was political because Trump didn’t share any evidence that COVID began actually in a lab.
Then-CNN anchor Chris Cuomo called the lab leak theory a distraction, while then-CNN correspondent John Harwood suggested the theory was a way for Trump to "deflect blame" from the performance of his administration.
Grabien Media founder Tom Elliott, who tweeted multiple clips of pundits dismissing the theory, also unearthed CNN reporter Drew Griffin bashing the late Rush Limbaugh for mentioning potential lab leaks with "zero proof."
"CNN has spoken to a half dozen virus hunters who, right now, say anyone who claims they know the exact source of the novel coronavirus is guessing," Griffin said. "Did it come from bats? Most likely."
In another 2020 segment, Griffin said the theory that COVID began in the Wuhan lab was "widely debunked."
ABC funnyman Jimmy Kimmel once mocked Trump for embracing the lab leak theory.
"That’s his new angle to feed the wingnuts, to treat this virus like it was a conspiracy of some kind," Kimmel said. "Tomorrow he’ll blame the Spanish flu on Antonio Banderas."
"Morning Joe" regular John Heilemann called it a "made up" theory. NBC News correspondent Janis Mackey Frayer offered a look at the lab with a chyron referring to it as at the "heart of conspiracy theories."
Kasie Hunt, who was at MSNBC at the time, bluntly said "we know it’s been debunked that this virus was manmade or modified," while CNN host Fareed Zakaria said "the far right has now found its own virus conspiracy theory" when discussing the possibility of a lab leak.

Do you think there will be any self-reflection, admissions of error, or mea culpas of any kind? Don't hold your breath.
 
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iluvatar5150

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Let's take a stroll down memory lane and remember how the media addressed people who promoted the now FBI-endorsed lab leak theory.

MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace, one of the media's most rabidly anti-GOP voices, blamed then-President Trump for pushing intelligence agencies into investigating one of his favorite "conspiracy theories."
...
"The effort comes as President Trump escalates a public campaign to blame China for the pandemic," the Times reporters added. "Most intelligence agencies remain skeptical that conclusive evidence of a link to a lab can be found."
MSNBC’s Joy Reid took things even further, calling the lab leak theory "debunked bunkum" being pushed by Trump.
New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman appeared on CNN’s since-canceled "New Day"to suggest the theory was political because Trump didn’t share any evidence that COVID began actually in a lab.
Then-CNN anchor Chris Cuomo called the lab leak theory a distraction, while then-CNN correspondent John Harwood suggested the theory was a way for Trump to "deflect blame" from the performance of his administration.
Grabien Media founder Tom Elliott, who tweeted multiple clips of pundits dismissing the theory, also unearthed CNN reporter Drew Griffin bashing the late Rush Limbaugh for mentioning potential lab leaks with "zero proof."
"CNN has spoken to a half dozen virus hunters who, right now, say anyone who claims they know the exact source of the novel coronavirus is guessing," Griffin said. "Did it come from bats? Most likely."
In another 2020 segment, Griffin said the theory that COVID began in the Wuhan lab was "widely debunked."
ABC funnyman Jimmy Kimmel once mocked Trump for embracing the lab leak theory.
"That’s his new angle to feed the wingnuts, to treat this virus like it was a conspiracy of some kind," Kimmel said. "Tomorrow he’ll blame the Spanish flu on Antonio Banderas."
"Morning Joe" regular John Heilemann called it a "made up" theory. NBC News correspondent Janis Mackey Frayer offered a look at the lab with a chyron referring to it as at the "heart of conspiracy theories."
Kasie Hunt, who was at MSNBC at the time, bluntly said "we know it’s been debunked that this virus was manmade or modified," while CNN host Fareed Zakaria said "the far right has now found its own virus conspiracy theory" when discussing the possibility of a lab leak.

Do you think there will be any self-reflection, admissions of error, or mea culpas of any kind? Don't hold your breath.
The current state of this is that some (definitely not all) agencies think that the lab leak hypothesis is more likely than others to be true, but they're not very confident in that assessment.

That's not a ringing endorsement of it. It's still true that the people pushing the theory a couple years ago were talking out of their back sides, likely for political reasons, with no evidence to back up their claims. You guys have not been vindicated.
 
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probinson

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The current state of this is that some (definitely not all) agencies think that the lab leak hypothesis is more likely than others to be true, but they're not very confident in that assessment.

Try to keep up. There is a "low confidence" report from the DOE and the FBI Director's public statement, which are not the same thing.

That's not a ringing endorsement of it.

This is what the Director of the FBI said.

"The FBI has for quite some time now assessed that the origins of the pandemic are most likely a potential lab incident in Wuhan."

Now I suppose you can try to spin that as not being a "ringing endorsement" of the theory, but I'm not really sure how.

It's still true that the people pushing the theory a couple years ago were talking out of their back sides, likely for political reasons, with no evidence to back up their claims. You guys have not been vindicated.

The lab-leak theory has ALWAYS been plausible. It was never "debunked bunkum". The media was absolutely and unequivocally wrong to state with absolute certainty that the lab-leak theory was not true and declare it "disinformation". That was NEVER true, and those stated as such and sought to silence discussion of the theory should be held accountable.

This speaks to a deeper issue of "fact-checkers" being held up as the final word on issues that they have no business commenting on.
 
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iluvatar5150

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Try to keep up. There is a "low confidence" report from the DOE and the FBI Director's public statement, which are not the same thing.



This is what the Director of the FBI said.

"The FBI has for quite some time now assessed that the origins of the pandemic are most likely a potential lab incident in Wuhan."

Now I suppose you can try to spin that as not being a "ringing endorsement" of the theory, but I'm not really sure how.



The lab-leak theory has ALWAYS been plausible. It was never "debunked bunkum". The media was absolutely and unequivocally wrong to state with absolute certainty that the lab-leak theory was not true and declare it "disinformation". That was NEVER true, and those stated as such and sought to silence discussion of the theory should be held accountable.

This speaks to a deeper issue of "fact-checkers" being held up as the final word on issues that they have no business commenting on.
Yes, I did miss the post about the FBI.

However, I stand by my argument that the folks screaming about a lab leak early on were talking out of their back sides. That doesn’t absolve the folks claiming that it had been debunked, who were also wrong.
 
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probinson

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However, I stand by my argument that the folks screaming about a lab leak early on were talking out of their back sides.

Were they? I mean, was it really all that much of a stretch to believe that a viral pathogen that we were told originated in Wuhan, China at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, literally across the river and approximately 10 miles as the crow flies from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, might have actually come from the Wuhan Institute of Virology instead?

Screenshot 2023-03-01 at 9.10.19 AM.png


I'm reminded of this (now potentially prophetic) Far Side comic.

E0FIVEGVUAE_yXW.png


That doesn’t absolve the folks claiming that it had been debunked, who were also wrong.

But they weren't just "wrong". They were censorious authoritarians that demanded that they were absolutely right and censored anyone that dared to question them. That's way worse than just being "wrong".
 
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iluvatar5150

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Were they? I mean, was it really all that much of a stretch to believe that a viral pathogen that we were told originated in Wuhan, China at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, literally across the river and approximately 10 miles as the crow flies from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, might have actually come from the Wuhan Institute of Virology instead?

Yes, they were. The bulk of the folks I heard screaming about it were not merely saying “hey, this is plausible and should be investigated.” They were looking for someone to blame.
 
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probinson

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Yes, they were. The bulk of the folks I heard screaming about it were not merely saying “hey, this is plausible and should be investigated.” They were looking for someone to blame.

What's your point? Regardless of the motivation, it was always and still is a plausible theory. So why were those in the government so quick to declare it a conspiracy and stifle all discussion about the possibility?

That's what I want to know. The origin of the virus is a distant, secondary concern to me. I want to know why there were those in our government that were so very quick to dismiss any possibility that it could have come from the lab, and why social media giants thought that it was such a taboo topic that it could not even be discussed on their platforms, and why the media sought to claim this was a "debunked" claim, and what, if any, involvement the government had in censoring those discussions.
 
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