Former deputy supreme allied commander warns of nucluer war next year.

[Goonie]

well this is worrying...
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/18/west-russia-on-course-for-war-nato-ex-deputy-commander

 

[redleghunter]

well this is worrying...
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/18/west-russia-on-course-for-war-nato-ex-deputy-commander

Putin is an opportunist. He knows NATO is a paper tiger, the EU nations have disarmed to the point where they can only police their own individual states (or occupy high level staff positions in war zones to give the appearance of an alliance).

Putin knows the US military has been gutted as starting next fiscal year the US Army will be as small as pre- WWII force structure, yet global commitments are not decreasing.

Putin knows Obama is a weak CinC.

All the makings for an autocrat to start war and expand his buffer zones to the former USSR.

I mean, if you were in Putin's position and you were Putin why not take on the West when who goes to the bathroom and where is more important to federal and state governments (no matter what side of that issue one is on) than national security. If Putin does not take on the West this summer I would be surprised. He would much rather face a weak Obama admin than Trump or even Hillary. Hillary might just take out her 'man hate' for her husband on Putin. Trump may nuke Ukraine so Putin can't have it.

Putin has options and they are all from now until the fall 2016. If he does not act I would be surprised.

 

[Nithavela]

This guy is about as credible as a fortune teller. He even mentioned that Russia would attack Latvia first, in may 2017.

He's just trying to shill his book. Get over it.

 

[Goonie]

Putin is an opportunist. He knows NATO is a paper tiger, the EU nations have disarmed to the point where they can only police their own individual states (or occupy high level staff positions in war zones to give the appearance of an alliance).

Putin knows the US military has been gutted as starting next fiscal year the US Army will be as small as pre- WWII force structure, yet global commitments are not decreasing.

Putin knows Obama is a weak CinC.

All the makings for an autocrat to start war and expand his buffer zones to the former USSR.

I mean, if you were in Putin's position and you were Putin why not take on the West when who goes to the bathroom and where is more important to federal and state governments (no matter what side of that issue one is on) than national security. If Putin does not take on the West this summer I would be surprised. He would much rather face a weak Obama admin than Trump or even Hillary. Hillary might just take out her 'man hate' for her husband on Putin. Trump may nuke Ukraine so Putin can't have it.

Putin has options and they are all from now until the fall 2016. If he does not act I would be surprised.

Or it's a piece by a former general, looking to sell a book, and support the white elephant that is Trident.

Though with instability in Europe, more so if the UK withdraws, I can see Putin taking advantage, leading to a game of dominoes that might go nucluer.

 

[redleghunter]

Or it's a piece by a former general, looking to sell a book, and support the white elephant that is Trident.

Though with instability in Europe, more so if the UK withdraws, I can see Putin taking advantage, leading to a game of dominoes that might go nucluer.

It won't go nuclear for a long time. Why use nukes on territory you want to use. Putin is an opportunist, an autocrat but not crazy or an idiot. He's calculating and intelligent.

Sure the guy wants to sell books but he was a former senior NATO commander. You don't get there by being a crack pot. This general has sat in on all the higher level intelligence briefings and knows a thing or two. Does it mean Putin will do what he says he will do? No of course not. The senior UK, French and US commanders all thought Hitler would come through the Maginot Line and would not violate Belgium neutrality. They were wrong about that, but they were correct Hitler would attack France.

Put yourself in Putin's shoes. Give me one good reason he should not expand his borders within his interior military lines?

Now power projection beyond interior lines, Putin is smart enough to know he cannot do that....yet...Takes time to expand logistics capabilities for an Army, Navy and Air Force you just rebuilt from scratch.

Putin attacks along interior lines expanding his buffer zone. He wants to do that, and he can do that.

What's stopping him?

 

[redleghunter]

This guy is about as credible as a fortune teller. He even mentioned that Russia would attack Latvia first, in may 2017.

He's just trying to shill his book. Get over it.

He may be selling a book but Sir Alexander is far from the crack pot you would make him out to be. Just look at the assignments and his service accomplishments.

Sir Alexander is looking at the state of the West, what Putin HAS done recently and drawing educated conclusions.

The nuke part may be over the top, but it won't be Putin who pulls that first trigger. Nations who have nukes and have declining conventional deterrents usually get into situations where nukes become 'options.'

 

[Nithavela]

He may be selling a book but Sir Alexander is far from the crack pot you would make him out to be. Just look at the assignments and his service accomplishments.

Sir Alexander is looking at the state of the West, what Putin HAS done recently and drawing educated conclusions.

The nuke part may be over the top, but it won't be Putin who pulls that first trigger. Nations who have nukes and have declining conventional deterrents usually get into situations where nukes become 'options.'

He's not a crackpot, he's a dishonest sensationalist.

 

[redleghunter]

He's not a crackpot, he's a dishonest sensationalist.

Ah yes, your opinion is noted. Do you know Sir Alexander? Have you served in any of his commands or know of his accomplishments in command?

 

[redleghunter]

well this is worrying...
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/18/west-russia-on-course-for-war-nato-ex-deputy-commander

Just for background:

Gen. Sir Alexander Richard David Shirreff

Sir Richard Shirreff was born in Kenya in 1955 where he spent his early years. Educated in England at Oundle and Exeter College, Oxford (Modern History), he was commissioned from Sandhurst into the 14th/20th King’s Hussars in 1978.

His regimental service was spent in Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland, the Gulf and, while attached to 6th Queen Elizabeth’s Own Gurkha Rifles for a year, Hong Kong and Brunei. He commanded The King’s Royal Hussars 1994-1996. He attended the Army Staff Course at Camberley in 1987, the Higher Command and Staff Course in 1999 and the Foundation Term of the Royal College of Defence Studies in 2003.

Staff posts have included: Chief of Staff, Headquarters 33 Armoured Brigade; Military Assistant to the last Commander-in-Chief, British Army of the Rhine and Commander Northern Army Group; Colonel Army Plans in the MOD; Principal Staff Officer to the Chief of Defence Staff; and Chief of Staff HQ LAND Command.

He commanded 7th Armoured Brigade 1999-2000, amongst other things forming the core of a multinational brigade in Kosovo and 3rd (UK) Division from 2005-2007. During this time the divisional HQ deployed as HQ Multinational Division South East in Iraq between July 2006 and January 2007. He has commanded on operations at every level from platoon to division. This has included combat in the Gulf War of 1991 as a tank squadron leader, counter-insurgency operations in the infantry role in Northern Ireland (three tours), together with Iraq and Kosovo.

He qualified as a military parachutist in 2005.

Assuming command of the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps in December 2007, apart from preparing the Corps for deployment in support of ISAF, he also oversaw the relocation of the Corps from Germany to the United Kingdom.

He served as the 27th DSACEUR from 3rd March 2011 until 1 April 2014.

http://www.gcsp.ch/News-Knowledge/Experts/Fellows/Gen.-Sir-Alexander-Richard-David-Shirreff

 

[Quid est Veritas?]

World Wars happen by accident, so will Nuclear ones. No one wants to nuke everything.

WWI started from petty politics in the Balkans. WWII from the invasion of Poland, but Hitler thought the Allies would accept it like they did the rest of his 'corrections' to the treaty of Versailles. He wasn't ready for it yet and was planning to invade Russia at a future date for Lebensraum.

Likewise, we shall only realise when its too late that we were standing on the brink and then these prophets of Doom will look prescient in retrospect, like Bismarck or Churchill.

 

[trunks2k]

World Wars happen by accident, so will Nuclear ones. No one wants to nuke everything.

WWI started from petty politics in the Balkans. WWII from the invasion of Poland, but Hitler thought the Allies would accept it like they did the rest of his 'corrections' to the treaty of Versailles.

The difference here is in WWI and WWII, the instigators made calculated risks thinking they could avoid the worst case scenario and win.

There is no such possibility when it comes to nuclear war, particularly one involving Russia or the US. That path lays certain destruction.

 

[nightflight]

I hope so. I would love to die in a nuclear inferno.

 

[redleghunter]

The difference here is in WWI and WWII, the instigators made calculated risks thinking they could avoid the worst case scenario and win.

There is no such possibility when it comes to nuclear war, particularly one involving Russia or the US. That path lays certain destruction.

Frankly the only way Russia 'pushes the button' is if mother Russia is in peril.

Truman used two atomic bombs to end the Pacific front of WWII. Both Russia and the US have had nuclear arsenals since then and have not used them.

The next use of a nuclear weapon will not come from the US or Russia. Russia and the US have everything to lose by using nukes. Think of cultures and countries who have not much to lose but to drag everyone down to their medieval levels.

 

[Oafman]

There's no doubt that Putin would love a land corridor to Crimea. And he doesn't have to seize too much more land to get it.

But there's no way he's invading the Baltics.

 

[cow451]

Putin is not so stupid as to think nuking anybody is going to be free of consequences to Russia.