Can China invade Taiwan?

Can China successfully invade Taiwan at this time?

  • Yes

  • No

  • Maybe/Don't know


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Can China successfully invade Taiwan?

They have been building up their military for some years with this aim in mind. They have a lot of hardware deployed around Taiwan. They have carrier-sinking missiles. But do they have enough to pull off an actual invasion?

What about the costs to their supply routes e.g. oil from the Middle East? Do they have enough reserves?

Would an invasion cripple the world economy and cause a major depression in China?

Could the Communist Party survive a deep economic downturn?

What do you think?
 

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Can the US invade Texas if it wishes to recede? Same difference.
Not really, Texas is not defensible against US military, while Taiwan is against Chinese military. The repercussions internationally would also be sustainable for the USA.
 
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Can they? Sure ... will they is the question ....NATO would be involved .... it would be a major war .... who knows? Maybe ... maybe not.

So you think they have the strength to bridge the straits, the logistical capability and sufficient landable forces to take the island?
 
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Petros2015

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They have carrier-sinking missiles.

Can they get and maintain enough airpower around the Taiwan region though?
They are lacking in aircraft carriers themselves, but I'm not sure of their ac range and bases on the coast if that alone would allow them to project the air support they would need. I don't see them carrying out a successful invasion w/o air superiority and being able to project air power where needed to cover troop landings, which they would need to do *a lot* of. No way anyone is going to miss that build up, remember how Putin was piling troops on the Ukrainian border for months and months? That's called an "indicator of intent".

They were kind of surprised when Ukraine didn't crumple to Russia I believe and don't want to risk the same sort of embarrassment for no gain. I don't foresee an attempt being made this year, but I haven't really been paying attention to it. If it were me, at this point, I'd probably schedule an invasion for November 5, 2024 and spend the next year and a half planning for it knowing the USA is likely to be extremely distracted when it occurs.
 
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Desk trauma

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Can the US invade Texas if it wishes to recede? Same difference.
When did Texas become an island off the US coast that has been digging in awaiting an invasion for decades?
 
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Can they get and maintain enough airpower around the Taiwan region though?
They are lacking in aircraft carriers themselves, but I'm not sure of their ac range and bases on the coast if that alone would allow them to project the air support they would need. I don't see them carrying out a successful invasion w/o air superiority and being able to project air power where needed to cover troop landings, which they would need to do *a lot* of. No way anyone is going to miss that build up, remember how Putin was piling troops on the Ukrainian border for months and months? That's called an "indicator of intent".

They were kind of surprised when Ukraine didn't crumple to Russia I believe and don't want to risk the same sort of embarrassment for no gain. I don't foresee an attempt being made this year, but I haven't really been paying attention to it. If it were me, at this point, I'd probably schedule an invasion for November 5, 2024 and spend the next year and a half planning for it knowing the USA is likely to be extremely distracted when it occurs.
They are massing right now. They have a naval exercise that is encircling the island. They are continually violating the Taiwanese airspace. So when the time of actual invasion comes things may look very much like they do today. I do not know how good Chinese military intelligence is or whether they suffer from the desire to tell Xi Jinping what he wants to hear rather than the actual reality. This same tendency was the undoing of the Ukraine invasion. They need a force superiority in all categories at the point of actual engagement. The Taiwanese are in a strong defensive position.



There are clear weaknesses in the PLA presently. Submarine warfare is primitive and might prove crucial in a battle near Taiwan. Communications and Command and Control are well below the curve and so much of their new hardware could not be fielded properly or properly coordinated.

If they blockade the island then this can be countered with restrictions on their ability to move oil from the Persian Gulf for instance.

The American report notes that China is only spending about 1.5% of its GNP on defense right now, but its capability is growing exponentially with its economy. It is putting a lot of effort into R&D so catching up with the USA is a plausible scenario by say mid century. Both reports seem to indicate China cannot expect success today though nor in the next decade.

But hey the experts have been wrong before. A lot of the time wars like this come down to how much you want it and how many lives is the Chinese communist party prepared to sacrifice.
 
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eleos1954

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So you think they have the strength to bridge the straits, the logistical capability and sufficient landable forces to take the island?
China has to walk a fine line .... with Russia and the US and NATO .... if they were to fully align with Russia ... then they could very easily go nuclear. If they attack Taiwan then NATO will get involved most likely ... which would involve America. Personally I don't think they want that war .... but who knows? They don't necessarily need significant land-able forces.

In addition to the ICBMs, the report stated that China has approximately 1,100 short-range ballistic missiles, although it does not have the warhead capacity to equip them all with nuclear weapons. In 2022, FAS estimated China's military stockpile in 350 nuclear warheads.
Russia has warheads.

I don't think America will be taken over by war .... but we could be significantly damaged. One reason I don't think so is because of the public being armed .... important go keep our gun rights. Besides that .... although the bible teaches there will be wars and rumors of wars ....
it describes the end times of being a deception and a mergence of religious and government powers, leading to great persecution and then the Lord will return.

The relationship between China and Russia monetarily could also weaken the US economy .... of which they have been and are talking about doing ... bible also teaches of an economic crash globally.

We will just have to wait and see how things play out ... no doubt things will continue to escalate.
 
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They are massing right now. They have a naval exercise that is encircling the island.

This was interesting "The First Battle of the Next War"

You can get the full report from the link
 
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eleos1954

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So you think they have the strength to bridge the straits, the logistical capability and sufficient landable forces to take the island?
I'm no military strategist ... I don't think they will invade anytime soon, but if the next US election gets a weak president I think it could happen then ..... 2025-2027 or so ... I think they will wait and see how the Ukraine war pans out .. but who knows?????
 
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China could theoretically put a large combined arms force onto shore on Taiwan.

High end estimates are that by 2025-2026 China will have sufficient amphibious sea lift and landing craft to put 30,000 to 45,000 troops and their equipment on Taiwan within a 2-3 day period. Low end estimates are that sea lift would be sufficient for a force of 16,000 to 20,000 troops in a 3-4 day period.

The question is whether its worth the cost, and whether it could support those troops once they've arrived.

At present, the answer to the cost would be 'most of China's brown water navy', 'some of China's blue water navy' and 'more than half of the troops put on the island', along with sundry damage to Chinese port facilities within about a 500km radius of Tawain (and, that's without US involvement).

Taiwan has an inventory of around 1200-1400 anti-ship missiles, a mix of locally developed systems and the US Harpoon on a combination of sea and land launchers. These act as the country's primary deterrent against invasion - estimates are that these would be sufficient to sink somewhere in the range of 200-500 Chinese ships. Taiwan also has a smaller inventory of short-range ballistic and cruise missiles which would target Chinese ports, particularly embarkation and supply points.

The answer to supporting the troops is a qualified no. The PLAN doesn't have sufficient sea lift to support a large and ongoing amphibious operation against Taiwan (and likely won't have any such capability for more than a decade, given declared Chinese ship building intentions).

However, there is enough commercial shipping that China could requisition to support a cross-Straits invasion of 160,000+ troops. At present, there is better than 900,000 tons of RO-RO ships that could have dual civil/military use. The only problem is that these ships would be hideously vulnerable to any sort of hit from a missile (or even something like a tank or artillery round) - look at the lessons from the sinking of the Moskva.
 
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China has to walk a fine line .... with Russia and the US and NATO .... if they were to fully align with Russia ... then they could very easily go nuclear. If they attack Taiwan then NATO will get involved most likely ... which would involve America. Personally I don't think they want that war .... but who knows? They don't necessarily need significant land-able forces.

In addition to the ICBMs, the report stated that China has approximately 1,100 short-range ballistic missiles, although it does not have the warhead capacity to equip them all with nuclear weapons. In 2022, FAS estimated China's military stockpile in 350 nuclear warheads.
Russia has warheads.

I don't think America will be taken over by war .... but we could be significantly damaged. One reason I don't think so is because of the public being armed .... important go keep our gun rights. Besides that .... although the bible teaches there will be wars and rumors of wars ....
it describes the end times of being a deception and a mergence of religious and government powers, leading to great persecution and then the Lord will return.

The relationship between China and Russia monetarily could also weaken the US economy .... of which they have been and are talking about doing ... bible also teaches of an economic crash globally.

We will just have to wait and see how things play out ... no doubt things will continue to escalate.

China has enough nukes to render the use of nukes by an enemy foolish. That kind of escalation is in no one's interest and does not fit Chinese long-term planning goals.

The relationship with Russia seems to be a marriage of convenience but solves some pretty big problems for China. Russia has enormous energy and mineral resources and the Chinese economy is hungry for these. Supply lines to Russia would however be just as vulnerable as those with the Gulf, especially pipelines, and the whole Chinese economic machine grinds to a halt without these supplies in the event of a war.

The biggest damage resulting from Russia's realignment is to Europe which now needs new energy suppliers. It is trying to resolve this by leading the world into a post-fossil fuel-green era. But this transition is likely to prove costly in the short term.

The deception machinery of both the Russian and Chinese governments is immense and allows them to control their populations. They also attempt to propagate their narratives beyond their borders with a combination of intimidation, economic threats and fake news. Countering this is one of the big challenges of our times. But the Chinese state is not a good platform for the AntiChrist as the religious component and credibility are missing. Chinese spirituality is less exportable than Russian Orthodoxy or other Christian variants.
 
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This was interesting "The First Battle of the Next War"

You can get the full report from the link

Great that the Chinese mainly fail. But this is depressing reading. Every scenario ends with a great cost in lives and treasure.
 
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I'm no military strategist ... I don't think they will invade anytime soon, but if the next US election gets a weak president I think it could happen then ..... 2025-2027 or so ... I think they will wait and see how the Ukraine war pans out .. but who knows?????

De Santis scared me when he suggested that Ukraine was just a local conflict and not something that the USA should be that concerned about. Trump too was clearly a pal of Putin and Putin wanted him to win in 2020. The Republican side seems a little too tempted by isolationism right now. A Republican victory could result in Russia setting terms for peace in Ukraine and sending the message that China can do what it likes in Taiwan also.
 
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But the Chinese state is not a good platform for the AntiChrist as the religious component and credibility are missing.
The WEF of which China and until recently russia were a part, is the perfect platform. Any religion regarding the adversary will not resemble Christianity, but the gods of this earth, mammon and power. People of all nations, especially the US have already bought into that religion
 
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China could theoretically put a large combined arms force onto shore on Taiwan.

High end estimates are that by 2025-2026 China will have sufficient amphibious sea lift and landing craft to put 30,000 to 45,000 troops and their equipment on Taiwan within a 2-3 day period. Low end estimates are that sea lift would be sufficient for a force of 16,000 to 20,000 troops in a 3-4 day period.

The question is whether its worth the cost, and whether it could support those troops once they've arrived.

At present, the answer to the cost would be 'most of China's brown water navy', 'some of China's blue water navy' and 'more than half of the troops put on the island', along with sundry damage to Chinese port facilities within about a 500km radius of Tawain (and, that's without US involvement).

Taiwan has an inventory of around 1200-1400 anti-ship missiles, a mix of locally developed systems and the US Harpoon on a combination of sea and land launchers. These act as the country's primary deterrent against invasion - estimates are that these would be sufficient to sink somewhere in the range of 200-500 Chinese ships. Taiwan also has a smaller inventory of short-range ballistic and cruise missiles which would target Chinese ports, particularly embarkation and supply points.

The answer to supporting the troops is a qualified no. The PLAN doesn't have sufficient sea lift to support a large and ongoing amphibious operation against Taiwan (and likely won't have any such capability for more than a decade, given declared Chinese ship building intentions).

However, there is enough commercial shipping that China could requisition to support a cross-Straits invasion of 160,000+ troops. At present, there is better than 900,000 tons of RO-RO ships that could have dual civil/military use. The only problem is that these ships would be hideously vulnerable to any sort of hit from a missile (or even something like a tank or artillery round) - look at the lessons from the sinking of the Moskva.

A Chinese plan would probably also involve the use of fifth columnists inside Taiwan to seize or sabotage key command and control facilities at the moment of invasion.

Also if they can gain air supremacy they have a growing airlift capacity. They can airlift tanks in the Y-20

 
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The WEF of which China and until recently russia were a part, is the perfect platform. Any religion regarding the adversary will not resemble Christianity, but the gods of this earth, mammon and power. People of all nations, especially the US have already bought into that religion

The Chinese do not have any globally appealing spiritual infrastructure in place. Their religious stories when transcendent are as fanciful as Hindu ones and Confucius reads like a how-to manual for the Chinese state. They lack any kind of global authority or credibility. Their religious infrastructure like their economic and diplomatic ones is based on a notion of Chinese racial supremacy. The rest of the world and indeed God does not give two figs about their claims to the mandate of heaven. A truly effective global leader has to be able to appeal to and then displace dominant religious messaging. This was a major reason that Soviet Communism failed. Their message was nihilistic, empty, secularised, and merely human. Chinese communism is equally unappealing, illegitimate and devoid of deeper meaning.
 
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