Called it in November, implications for the future

[Mark Quayle]

When we flattened the curve we were near a 9/11’s worth of deaths every single day so we had to do things to get those deaths down unless you are okay with 3,000 dead Americans everyday.

Just letting this disease run rampant would have given us a death count of almost 6 million Americans from the disease (based on survivability of COVID-19). We’d also have to tack on a couple million more because our health care system would have completely collapsed. I’m not talking about just elective surgeries not getting done, getting in a car accident or having a heart attack wouldn’t be treatable due to this disease being allowed to rampant.

People in charge saw these numbers and decided they were unacceptable. Maybe you are okay with 1 in 50 Americans in a body bag but the vast majority are not and will not blissfully go about their daily lives as if nothing is wrong as it happens.

Your numbers are unreliable. This 'would have' and other speculations are worse than fraught with error. They are preached by those with an agenda.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Sounds like a template for leftist talking points.

No, it sounds like a prescient forecast from a scientist working in biotechnology/diagnostics (if not epidemiology or public health).

 

[Mark Quayle]

No, it sounds like a prescient forecast from a scientist working in biotechnology/diagnostics (if not epidemiology or public health).

You honestly believe this panic and propaganda! Amazing.

 

[Nithavela]

I refuse to live my life in constant unwarranted fear. The flu is here to stay, colds are here to stay, and if the Covid is here to stay, I really don't care. I wear a seat belt because 1 it makes sense to me, and 2 it is the law (whether the Government has the right to make it a law or not), and 3 it helps keep me vertical in the seat. In other words, because I choose to wear it. If the government make vaccinations law, I might comply, but ONLY because it is the law. You can be sure that I will do all I legally can to see that government doesn't get re-elected. It was outrageous enough that they required masks, social distancing, etc. But to do something to my body I don't want done is way too much.

Knock yourself out.

 

[essentialsaltes]

You honestly believe this panic and propaganda! Amazing.

Panic and propaganda? No, as I said, this scientist laid out a prediction that we can check against the facts.

It may not be quite as dire as he stated, but he was writing in November 2020 before there were any vaccines at all.

Even after full vaccine compliance (80% plus), with a fully re-opened economy and no mitigation measures, Covid-19 will likely remain the 3rd leading cause of death in the US after heart disease and cancer with an annual death toll of >300k deaths per year.

We haven't gotten to 80% compliance, but so far in 2021, roughly 300,000 people have in fact died of COVID-19.

Unfortunately, there will likely be a strong political push to drop all mitigation measures shortly after the vaccine is widely available.

Not only was there a push, but many mitigation measures have been dropped.

In a scenario where there’s a 50% vaccination rate and no mitigation measures, the death rate could easily be 2x-to-3x higher as it becomes increasingly difficult for those unwilling to take the vaccine to avoid infection...but without any of the protections of the vaccine!

In Mississippi and Florida, the current death rate is as bad or a little worse than it was when he wrote the article. Not 2-3x worse. However, as we're seeing, the deaths are concentrated among the unvaccinated. So comparing the unvaccinated in Nov 2020 to the unvaccinated now, it probably is a factor of 2-3 worse.

In places with high vaccination rates, like Massachusetts, the death rate is lower now than it was last November. And much lower than the worst it got.

 

[whatbogsends]

What i find amusing is the pushback i've gotten over the last several months (as recently as yesterday) about stating the vaccines offer little in the way of preventing infection/transmission.

 

[Hank77]

and most people never know that they've been reinfected.

huh, what?
If they never know how does anyone else ever know?

 

[Sword of the Lord]

huh, what?
If they never know how does anyone else ever know?

From what I'm reading when reinfection happens it's usually very mild and it's suspected that more people have had reinfection than we know about but never got tested because they weren't sick.

 

[Hank77]

From what I'm reading when reinfection happens it's usually very mild and it's suspected that more people have had reinfection than we know about but never got tested because they weren't sick.

That sounds much more reasonable, that it is suspected but no one really knows.

 

[Sword of the Lord]

That sounds much more reasonable, that it is suspected but no one really knows.

The only thing we know for sure is that most people have some form of immunity to Covid after an initial infection. How long it lasts keeps increasing as time goes on and more studies are done. And that reinfection, when it does occur, appears to be mild.

 

[Pommer]

The only thing we know for sure is that most people have some form of immunity to Covid after an initial infection.

Amongst the survivors, aye.

 

[Sword of the Lord]

Amongst the survivors, aye.

It's always good that the vast majority survive and have some natural immunity, yes.