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Called it in November, implications for the future
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<blockquote data-quote="essentialsaltes" data-source="post: 76219434" data-attributes="member: 294566"><p>Panic and propaganda? No, as I said, this scientist laid out a <em><strong>prediction</strong></em> that we can check against the facts.</p><p></p><p>It may not be quite as dire as he stated, but he was writing in November 2020 before there were any vaccines at all.</p><p></p><p><span style="color: #ff0000"><em>Even after full vaccine compliance (80% plus), with a fully re-opened economy and no mitigation measures, Covid-19 will likely remain <strong>the 3rd leading cause of death in the US after heart disease and cancer with an annual death toll of >300k deaths per year.</strong></em></span></p><p></p><p>We haven't gotten to 80% compliance, but so far in 2021, roughly 300,000 people have in fact died of COVID-19.</p><p></p><p> <strong><em><span style="color: #ff4d4d">Unfortunately, there will likely be a strong political push to drop all mitigation measures shortly after the vaccine is widely available.</span></em></strong></p><p></p><p>Not only was there a push, but many mitigation measures have been dropped.</p><p></p><p><span style="color: #ff4d4d"><em>In a scenario where there’s a 50% vaccination rate and no mitigation measures, <strong>the death rate could easily be 2x-to-3x higher</strong> as it becomes increasingly difficult for those unwilling to take the vaccine to avoid infection...but without any of the protections of the vaccine!</em></span></p><p></p><p>In Mississippi and Florida, the current death rate is as bad or a little worse than it was when he wrote the article. Not 2-3x worse. However, as we're seeing, the deaths are concentrated among the unvaccinated. So comparing the unvaccinated in Nov 2020 to the unvaccinated now, it probably is a factor of 2-3 worse.</p><p></p><p>In places with high vaccination rates, like Massachusetts, the death rate is lower now than it was last November. And <strong>much</strong> lower than the worst it got.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="essentialsaltes, post: 76219434, member: 294566"] Panic and propaganda? No, as I said, this scientist laid out a [I][B]prediction[/B][/I] that we can check against the facts. It may not be quite as dire as he stated, but he was writing in November 2020 before there were any vaccines at all. [COLOR=#ff0000][I]Even after full vaccine compliance (80% plus), with a fully re-opened economy and no mitigation measures, Covid-19 will likely remain [B]the 3rd leading cause of death in the US after heart disease and cancer with an annual death toll of >300k deaths per year.[/B][/I][/COLOR] We haven't gotten to 80% compliance, but so far in 2021, roughly 300,000 people have in fact died of COVID-19. [I][COLOR=#ff4d4d] [/COLOR][/I][B][I][COLOR=#ff4d4d]Unfortunately, there will likely be a strong political push to drop all mitigation measures shortly after the vaccine is widely available.[/COLOR][/I][/B] Not only was there a push, but many mitigation measures have been dropped. [COLOR=#ff4d4d][I]In a scenario where there’s a 50% vaccination rate and no mitigation measures, [B]the death rate could easily be 2x-to-3x higher[/B] as it becomes increasingly difficult for those unwilling to take the vaccine to avoid infection...but without any of the protections of the vaccine![/I][/COLOR] [I][/I] In Mississippi and Florida, the current death rate is as bad or a little worse than it was when he wrote the article. Not 2-3x worse. However, as we're seeing, the deaths are concentrated among the unvaccinated. So comparing the unvaccinated in Nov 2020 to the unvaccinated now, it probably is a factor of 2-3 worse. In places with high vaccination rates, like Massachusetts, the death rate is lower now than it was last November. And [B]much[/B] lower than the worst it got. [/QUOTE]
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