Climate threats = FIRES: Famine, Instability, Refugees, Extinctions, Super-storms

eclipsenow · Apr 25, 2024

Solo81 said:
You're asking for a link confirming CIA involvement in fostering civil war in a foreign Nation? Really?

The way you asserted it so boldly I assumed there had been some investigative journalism expose that revealed some credible claims and sources. Is this is your hypothesis? I have removed the Syrian civil war as a specific example from the OP, and just put in the general "Threat Multiplier" explanation.

Meanwhile - this next article from The Conversation analyses the risks of instability in Australia. The greatest risks are infrastructure damage and how that plays out in the population. But it has an interesting perspective on the supposedly inevitable 'water wars' long discussed in climate change books.

"On the other hand, depictions of climate change as a trigger of international wars and mass migration are misleading.

We have only seen a relatively small number of large-scale violent disputes between states since World War Two, and in none of them was the environment a major cause of contestation. As long as it’s many times cheaper to build a desalination plant than to invade a country, water wars remain unlikely.

What’s more, international migration is enormously costly for the majority of people living in poorer countries. If their livelihoods are further devastated by storms and droughts, they’re even less likely to be able to pay to move long distances.

Despite these qualifications, the message of recent research is unequivocal: climate change is not “just” an environmental concern. It’s an important national security issue for Australia. Efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change should, consequentially, remain high on the political agenda."

The Conversation - 2023

Political instability and damage to infrastructure: how climate change could undermine Australia’s national security

Our foreign policy may need to deal with twin challenges brought about by climate change.

theconversation.com

Estrid · Apr 25, 2024

Ophiolite said:
Before she invests time in pursuing that, perhaps you could just answer her question. It doesn't appear to be too difficult. Engaging in a lengthy period of study to get an answer to a simple question seems a strange barrier to erect against open discussion.

Naturally the delightful invitation wass declined.

Solo81 · Apr 25, 2024

eclipsenow said:
The way you asserted it so boldly I assumed there had been some investigative journalism expose that revealed some credible claims and sources. Is this is your hypothesis? I have removed the Syrian civil war as a specific example from the OP, and just put in the general "Threat Multiplier" explanation.

Meanwhile - this next article from The Conversation analyses the risks of instability in Australia. The greatest risks are infrastructure damage and how that plays out in the population. But it has an interesting perspective on the supposedly inevitable 'water wars' long discussed in climate change books.

"On the other hand, depictions of climate change as a trigger of international wars and mass migration are misleading.

We have only seen a relatively small number of large-scale violent disputes between states since World War Two, and in none of them was the environment a major cause of contestation. As long as it’s many times cheaper to build a desalination plant than to invade a country, water wars remain unlikely.

What’s more, international migration is enormously costly for the majority of people living in poorer countries. If their livelihoods are further devastated by storms and droughts, they’re even less likely to be able to pay to move long distances.

Despite these qualifications, the message of recent research is unequivocal: climate change is not “just” an environmental concern. It’s an important national security issue for Australia. Efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change should, consequentially, remain high on the political agenda."

The Conversation - 2023

Political instability and damage to infrastructure: how climate change could undermine Australia’s national security

Our foreign policy may need to deal with twin challenges brought about by climate change.

theconversation.com

You think there has been no credible journalism about CIA activity and protection of America's interests abroad. Oh, i genuinely don't know where to begin with you (or if i even should).

Re: Australia.
Yes, Australia will suffer from extreme weather: it will be anthropogenic but not because of elevated CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

Solo81 · Apr 25, 2024

Estrid said:
Naturally the delightful invitation wass declined.

You never asked me for any explanation, source of information or helpful reading; no, your contribution was, an "outlandish unsupportable claim". So there's no need for you to now pretend that you were somehow wronged. If you haven't the courage to address me yourself, there's really no need for snide remarks that are aimed at me.

Now, seeing as OP removed the Syrian reference, our reason to interact has concluded. Unless we start a thread on American Foreign Policy; the CIA and the protection of the Petrodollar? Could be a real eye-opener...

eclipsenow · Apr 25, 2024

Solo81 said:
You think there has been no credible journalism about CIA activity and protection of America's interests abroad. Oh, i genuinely don't know where to begin with you (or if i even should).

I didn't say that - please don't put words in my mouth. I'm talking specifically about the Syrian civil war - obviously.

And drop the attitude - you're the one that cannot seem to get your own story straight! Which is it?

There's abundant credible journalism about the CIA's involvement in the Syrian civil war - so abundant that you shouldn't be bothered with someone who questions it?

Or there's obviously no credible journalism on it? "You're asking for a link confirming CIA involvement in fostering civil war in a foreign Nation? Really?"

Solo81 said:
Re: Australia.
Yes, Australia will suffer from extreme weather: it will be anthropogenic but not because of elevated CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

Ha ha ha - now the question flips - should I be bothered with you? What - you think the HAARP system has weaponized weather control or something? Just how many tinfoil hats should I wear before I try to "catch up with you" in your obviously superior worldview?

Solo81 · Apr 25, 2024

eclipsenow said:
I didn't say that - please don't put words in my mouth. I'm talking specifically about the Syrian civil war - obviously.

And drop the attitude - you're the one that cannot seem to get your own story straight! Which is it?

There's abundant credible journalism about the CIA's involvement in the Syrian civil war - so abundant that you shouldn't be bothered with someone who questions it?

Or there's obviously no credible journalism on it? "You're asking for a link confirming CIA involvement in fostering civil war in a foreign Nation? Really?"

Ha ha ha - now the question flips - should I be bothered with you? What - you think the HAARP system has weaponized weather control or something? Just how many tinfoil hats should I wear before I try to "catch up with you" in your obviously superior worldview?

And again i must write: the CIA don't advertise their activities or inform the American taxpayers of what they're at. The confirmations eventually come from whistleblowers, memoirs and FOI requests.
It was Donald Trump who finally cancelled USA's overt funding of terrorists in Syria - they were fighting Assad's Govt. forces and attempting to fight Daesh/ISIL. (Surely you know how to copy + paste a few words and put them into your search engine? Or do you need a credible journalist to tell you how to use the web?)

Re: Australia. Weather patterns will progress to what we call extreme but not because we are burning fossil fuels or not recycling plastics.
God will 'speak' to humanity through weather in an attempt to get us to turn to Him and call on Him. But if Man thinks irregular weather is because of airplanes, will he turn to God?

eclipsenow · Apr 25, 2024

Solo81 said:
And again i must write: the CIA don't advertise their activities or inform the American taxpayers of what they're at. The confirmations eventually come from whistleblowers, memoirs and FOI requests.
It was Donald Trump who finally cancelled USA's overt funding of terrorists in Syria - they were fighting Assad's Govt. forces and attempting to fight Daesh/ISIL. (Surely you know how to copy + paste a few words and put them into your search engine? Or do you need a credible journalist to tell you how to use the web?)

If you're making the assertion - the burden of evidence is on yourself.

Solo81 said:
Re: Australia. Weather patterns will progress to what we call extreme but not because we are burning fossil fuels or not recycling plastics.
God will 'speak' to humanity through weather in an attempt to get us to turn to Him and call on Him. But if Man thinks irregular weather is because of airplanes, will he turn to God?

Dude - this is not an eschatology forum. If you want to discuss that kind of "Last Days Timetable" then by all means go over there and join in. But good luck - because no 2 futurists over there can agree on anything. If you want my views on eschatology - you can search my name over there and you'll see I'm historic amil - but this is NOT the forum to debate that stuff.

This is about climate science.
Climate instability. (And I would suggest to Christians - how to love your neighbour in a time like this.)

Estrid · Apr 26, 2024

Solo81 said:
And again i must write: the CIA don't advertise their activities or inform the American taxpayers of what they're at. The confirmations eventually come from whistleblowers, memoirs and FOI requests.
It was Donald Trump who finally cancelled USA's overt funding of terrorists in Syria - they were fighting Assad's Govt. forces and attempting to fight Daesh/ISIL. (Surely you know how to copy + paste a few words and put them into your search engine? Or do you need a credible journalist to tell you how to use the web?)

Re: Australia. Weather patterns will progress to what we call extreme but not because we are burning fossil fuels or not recycling plastics.
God will 'speak' to humanity through weather in an attempt to get us to turn to Him and call on Him. But if Man thinks irregular weather is because of airplanes, will he turn to God?

Now the wild unevidenced claims extend to
the pretense of being a Prophet of God.

Your library may have a book about God, detailing
what he thinks of those abusing his name that way.

Ophiolite · Apr 26, 2024

Solo81 said:
And again i must write: the CIA don't advertise their activities or inform the American taxpayers of what they're at.

As with most of what you post, this is only partly true: We are the Nation's first line of defense - CIA

It seems that cherry-picking, patronising assertions, selective omissions, innuendo, fear-mongering and the like, may not be the sole domain of governments and large corporations. If the tin foil hat fits, wear it.

Estrid · Apr 26, 2024

Ophiolite said:
As with most of what you post, this is only partly true: We are the Nation's first line of defense - CIA

It seems that cherry-picking, patronising assertions, selective omissions, innuendo, fear-mongering and the like, may not be the sole domain of governments and large corporations. If the tin foil hat fits, wear it.

Here is a way to hack into the top secret
activities of the CIA:

The World Factbook - The World Factbook

www.cia.gov

eclipsenow · Apr 26, 2024

Hi all,
I'm moving on to Refugees.
(The R in FIRES).

At this early stage I'm wondering if I'm missing something?
Climate change makes it worse - but not as bad as I feared.
Anything to add? The 2050 paper is from 3 of the main refugee hotspots - what am I missing?

Today

“This graph shows the number of people who are ‘forcibly displaced’ in the world – that is, they have been forced to leave home, for example because of conflict, disaster or persecution. UNHCR most recently estimated that, by the middle of 2023, for the first time in recorded history, the number of people forcibly displaced is now over 110 million, with over 36.4 million refugees.”

How many refugees are there in the world? - Refugee Council of Australia

Climate change by 2050 will cause an extra 27% of internally displaced people from just 3 regions.

This report, which focuses on three regions—Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America that together represent 55 percent of the developing world’s population—finds that climate change will push tens of millions of people to migrate within their countries by 2050. It projects that without concrete climate and development action, just over 143 million people—or around 2.8 percent of the population of these three regions—could be forced to move within their own countries to escape the slow-onset impacts of climate change. They will migrate from less viable areas with lower water availability and crop productivity and from areas affected by rising sea level and storm surges. The poorest and most climate vulnerable areas will be hardest hit. These trends, alongside the emergence of “hotspots” of climate in- and out-migration, will have major implications for climate-sensitive sectors and for the adequacy of infrastructure and social support systems. The report finds that internal climate migration will likely rise through 2050 and then accelerate unless there are significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and robust development action.

Open Knowledge Repository

timewerx · Sunday at 12:08 AM

What refugee threat?

Refugees coming in or you becoming a refugee yourself or both?

One huge factor why birds evaded major extinction events is the ability to cross borders with ease.

Humans cannot because humans are by nature extremely selfish and prevent border crossings especially those coming from poor regions. Religion doesn't make a difference or even makes things worse.

eclipsenow · Sunday at 3:16 AM

I found another report.
It's not fun.

In developed economies we find it hard to imagine relying on something as arbitrary as the weather for your income.
Only 4% of the workforce is on the land, growing stuff for their income. For their food, and ours.

But in developing nations that can be up to 50% of the population. They're in small scale farming, feeding their family and maybe having a little left over for sale. These farms are only possible in certain temperature and weather zones - certain micro-climate bands across the planet. As the global climate heats up and the weather patterns change, those bands are going to shift. Profoundly. More than they have in 10,000 years.
So based on these climate bands, how many people might be on the move by 2100?

Xu et al May 2020 says that under IPPC models (RCP’s - Representative Concentration Pathways) by 2100 we would have the following refugee numbers:

RCP2.6 scenario (2 degrees) - around 1.5 billion.

RCP8.5 scenario (or "business as usual" - 4.3 degrees by 2100) - around 3.5 billion people!
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1910114117

Climate threats = FIRES: Famine, Instability, Refugees, Extinctions, Super-storms

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Climate change by 2050 will cause an extra 27% of internally displaced people from just 3 regions.​

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Climate change by 2050 will cause an extra 27% of internally displaced people from just 3 regions.