I Guess There Is Little Interest In the US Presidential Primaries

mark46 · Feb 7, 2016

I am somewhat surprised that there is so little discussion of the presidential primaries here.

I guess they matter little even to folks on a political board.

I mean no criticism. I'm simply surprised.

MoonlessNight · Feb 7, 2016

There's a thread with nearly two hundred replies discussing the results in Iowa.

I'm sure that we will have another discussion after New Hampshire.

Between the two events there isn't really much to discuss that hasn't already been discussed.

Fantine · Feb 7, 2016

I am trying to decide between Hillary a and Bernie, although I will vvolunteer for either in November. My heart says Bernie of course, but my head says Hillary.

S.ilvio · Feb 7, 2016

Just finished watching the ABc Republican debate from last night.

Kasich and Christie came out well on top. Rubio was lost at sea.

Kasich is the kind of Conservative the Democrats will really fear. He's normal and is a genuine nice guy. He'll win over many Independents in a head to head...

mark46 · Feb 7, 2016

S.ilvio said:
Just finished watching the ABc Republican debate from last night.

Kasich and Christie came out well on top. Rubio was lost at sea.

Kasich is the kind of Conservative the Democrats will really fear. He's normal and is a genuine nice guy. He'll win over many Independents in a head to head...

Many commentators said the same. Kasich would get the majority of independent votes and some Democratic votes. And of course, Republicans would back him in the general.

Kasich's problem is getting enough support from those who vote in Republican primaries.

mark46 · Feb 7, 2016

Fantine said:
I am trying to decide between Hillary a and Bernie, although I will vvolunteer for either in November. My heart says Bernie of course, but my head says Hillary.

I suspect that majority of Democrats feel this way. Most know that Bernie isn't electable.

Genersis · Feb 7, 2016

Politics has been so depressing lately, and I can only see things getting worse in future(in the UK anyway).
So it seems I'm taking a de-facto hiatus of political discussions until the forecast, or my feelings surrounding it, change.

In addition, I've got new pursuits to occupy my time.

S.ilvio said:
Just finished watching the ABc Republican debate from last night.

Kasich and Christie came out well on top. Rubio was lost at sea.

Kasich is the kind of Conservative the Democrats will really fear. He's normal and is a genuine nice guy. He'll win over many Independents in a head to head...

Shame they're probably the next two to drop out.
Well, those two and 12 votes Jimmy.

Genersis · Feb 7, 2016

mark46 said:
I suspect that majority of Democrats feel this way. Most know that Bernie isn't electable.

I'm not so sure.
Bernie may be more vulnerable to the "SOCIALIST/COMMUNIST!" noise than previous Democratic candidates, and indeed Clinton; but I feel he also lacks a lot of the baggage.
I don't think the choice is as obvious as it is often presented.

Do you know if there has there been any polls conducted with specifically centrists and Republican leaning voters?

mark46 · Feb 7, 2016

Genersis said:
I'm not so sure.
Bernie may be more vulnerable to the "SOCIALIST/COMMUNIST!" noise than previous Democratic candidates, and indeed Clinton; but I feel he also lacks a lot of the baggage.
I don't think the choice is as obvious as it is often presented.

Do you know if there has there been any polls conducted with specifically centrists and Republican leaning voters?

No.

The idea of Republicans voting for Sanders is simply strange. Any such votes would be overwhelmed by the additional turnout among right wingers.

mark46 · Feb 7, 2016

Genersis said:
I'm not so sure.
Bernie may be more vulnerable to the "SOCIALIST/COMMUNIST!" noise than previous Democratic candidates, and indeed Clinton; but I feel he also lacks a lot of the baggage.
I don't think the choice is as obvious as it is often presented.

Do you know if there has there been any polls conducted with specifically centrists and Republican leaning voters?

How can Sanders not be more vulnerable to be called a socialist. He calls himself a socialist, and he isn't a registered Democrat. Obviously, he can't register as a Socialist.

Michie · Feb 7, 2016

You can only discuss the same thing over and over again so much. I'm just not someone that lives, breathes, eats, politics. A lot of us are simply stumped with the choices we have.

mark46 said:
I am somewhat surprised that there is so little discussion of the presidential primaries here.

I guess they matter little even to folks on a political board.

I mean no criticism. I'm simply surprised.

LivingWordUnity · Feb 7, 2016

Liberals are going to vote Democrat. And conservatives are going to vote Republican.

mark46 · Feb 7, 2016

LivingWordUnity said:
Liberals are going to vote Democrat. And conservatives are going to vote Republican.

And the other 40% don't matter? In NH, they can vote in either primary on Tuesday.

LivingWordUnity · Feb 7, 2016

mark46 said:
And the other 40% don't matter?

Do you mean the people who won't be voting?

mark46 · Feb 7, 2016

LivingWordUnity said:
Do you mean the people who won't be voting?

The country is composed of about 30% Democrats, 30% Republicans and 40% of other or no party.

LivingWordUnity · Feb 7, 2016

mark46 said:
The country is composed of about 30% Democrats, 30% Republicans and 40% of other or no party.

Judging by the official results of the past 4 POTUS elections, I think it's probably close to about a 50/50 split between conservatives and liberals in the United States.

Here's what I mean:

Popular votes

2012 POTUS election
Democrat votes: 65,446,032
Republican votes: 60,589,084
Total votes: 128,556,837
65,446,032 + 60,589,084 = 126,035,116
126,035,116 / 128,556,837 = 0.98038438826 = 98.038438826% (total votes)
65,446,032 - 60,589,084 = 4856948
4856948 / 126,035,116 = 0.03853646629 = 3.853646629%
So about 98% of total votes were either for the Democrat party or the Republican party, and there's only about a 4% difference between the votes of the Democrats vs. Republicans.

2008 POTUS election
Democrat votes: 69,297,997
Republican votes: 59,597,520
Total votes: 131,032,799
69,297,997 + 59,597,520 = 128,895,517
128895517 / 131032799 = 0.98368895409 = 98.368895409%
So about 98% of total votes were either for the Democrat party or the Republican party.

2004 POTUS election
Democrat votes: 59,027,478
Republican votes: 62,039,073
Total votes: 122,284,939
59,027,478 + 62,039,073 = 121,066,551
121,066,551 / 122,284,939 = 0.99003648356 = 99.003648356%
So about 99% of total votes were either for the Democrat party or the Republican party.

2000 POTUS election
Democrat votes: 50,996,582
Republican votes: 50,456,062
Total votes: 105,363,298
50,996,582 + 50,456,062 = 101,452,644
101,452,644 / 105,363,298 = 0.96288409651 = 96.288409651%
So about 96% of total votes were either for the Democrat party or the Republican party.

Source for raw data:
http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/historical.html

Michie · Feb 7, 2016

LivingWordUnity said:
Do you mean the people who won't be voting?

He means people like me who are independent voters.

I Guess There Is Little Interest In the US Presidential Primaries

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