Russia preparing imminent incursion into Ukraine?

[Yeshua HaDerekh]

Hold on to you britches! Biden be hiding at Camp David...

 

[Ignatius the Kiwi]

Why should the USA get involved in this conflict again?

 

[ChristServant]

Hold on to you britches! Biden be hiding at Camp David...

Really! Or is Russia just trying to stop a potential invasion on THEIR doorstep now or in the future by forces that go around the world destabilising countries and causing untold numbers of death, suffering and misery?

Peace be to all those in the Body of Christ.

 

[ArmyMatt]

Lord have mercy!

 

[Pavel Mosko]

Hold on to you britches! Biden be hiding at Camp David...

Ah sometimes I wish I could use multiple ratings. I settled for a prayer, but the verbiage got a smile and chuckle from me.

 

[SavedByGrace3]

I am certainly no fan of Russia but consider their position.
about 60 years ago Russia was placing nuclear missiles in Cuba, a scant 90 miles off the coast of Florida. We blockaded Cuba and came within hours of a full-fledged war with Russia. I remember my mother, after seeing the bulletin on the TV, screaming out the back door for me to come home. I was like 9 years old.
Today Russia is worried that Ukraine might join NATO. Consider Ukraine to be the Cuba of Russia. Russia apparently had received reassurances that Ukraine would never join NATO. Apparently, they are now considering doing just that. So, while we would not like to see this war... it is kind of understandable if it happens.

 

[buzuxi02]

An invasion only in the demented minds of American foreign policymakers.

 

[Lost4words]

We just sent 10,000 Corgi's to Ukraine.

Look out Putin!

 

[ArmyMatt]

We just sent 10,000 Corgi's to Ukraine.

Look out Putin!

View attachment 312536

“Cry ‘Havoc!’ And let slip the dogs of war!”

 

[rakovsky]

Today Russia is worried that Ukraine might join NATO. Consider Ukraine to be the Cuba of Russia. Russia apparently had received reassurances that Ukraine would never join NATO. Apparently, they are now considering doing just that. So, while we would not like to see this war... it is kind of understandable if it happens.

Perhaps the key issue is that NATO has a demand that all NATO nations must declare war if one gets attacked.

A helpful comparison of the situation would be if Georgia was part of NATO under Saakashvili in 2008. Georgia was launching provocations onto Russian territory then and the Russians responded with greater force. Russia has peacekeeping troops in South Ossetia, which Georgia claims, so it's a recipe for potential conflict. However, if Georgia was part of NATO and was launching those provocations, then what could Russia do in response?

- Would it be a simple issue where Russia would have to either refuse to take military action against the provocations or else risk war by reacting against the provocations militarily, since Georgia would be in NATO?
- Further, suppose that Russia did react by counterattacking against Georgian provocations. Would NATO be forced to enter into war with Russia?
- Next, suppose that NATO does fight Russia. Certainly NATO (US + most of the EU) is stronger and bigger militarily than Russia. How far into Russia is the war going to go? Is NATO going to just stop at the edge of Georgia's borders, are they going to do bombing runs into Russia, or are they going to launch a ground invasion?

There are two big dangers of even a "limited" direct Russia-NATO conflict.
- People typically think of a Russia-NATO war as being a full blown war, and the US really hasn't prepared people, either in the US or in Europe, to think of a Russia-NATO war in terms of stopping at member nations' borders or in terms of a non-nuclear war.
- Further, suppose that a NATO invasion of Russia is going successfully for NATO, and NATO troops get to Smolensk or Volgograd (Stalingrad). In Russian simulations, Russia would lose in terms of conventional ground forces. Is Russia ready to limit itself to conventional forces if it means Russia getting conquered?

Finally, consider the scenario where Russia's leaders would limit themselves to conventional weapons in the face of a NATO conquest. Is every Russian nuclear weapon station and sub on earth going to follow that policy?

There is no reasonably non-self-annihilatory way for NATO to directly fight Russia. This is why since WW2, Russia (or the USSR) and NATO members only fought proxy wars (eg. Syria, Georgia, Ukraine). NATO and Russia were on the same side in the Afghanistan war, so it's not as if those two powers are always in conflict or on opposite sides inherently.

 

[Nick1000]

Other key issues are that Putin wants the Ukraine regardless of all the various Nato related issues. Nato could fall off of the face of the earth tomorrow and Vlad would think that it is an even better time to take the Ukraine.

He is the one who crows about how great it would be to put the Soviet Union back together so one excuse is as good as another.

 

[buzuxi02]

No one is invading Ukraine, it's a bunch of american lies to try and disrupt the new pipeline to Germany.
Unfortunately tit for tat military moves makes it look worse.
We know the insane Americans love starting provocations during the Olympics.
On the eve of the Beijing games U.S. state department greenlighted Georgia to start a military offensive in South Ossetia.
Then during the midst of the Sochi winter games they turned up the heat (Nuland handing out the cookies) and collapsed the then Kiev government in the middle of the games. Once the games were over Russia secured Crimea without even firing a shot.

What's happening now is from the same playbook just another underhanded western tactic during a global event that's meant to bring people together.

 

[Nick1000]

No one is invading Ukraine, it's a bunch of american lies to try and disrupt the new pipeline to Germany.

And Vlad has ordered all Russians out of the embassy in Kyiv because why? Because he thinks the big bad Americans are going to bomb the Ukrainians?

I don't think so.

 

[buzuxi02]

And Vlad has ordered all Russians out of the embassy in Kyiv because why? Because he thinks the big bad Americans are going to bomb the Ukrainians?

I don't think so.

Tit for tat. No one is invading anyone.

 

[rusmeister]

Other key issues are that Putin wants the Ukraine regardless of all the various Nato related issues. Nato could fall off of the face of the earth tomorrow and Vlad would think that it is an even better time to take the Ukraine.

He is the one who crows about how great it would be to put the Soviet Union back together so one excuse is as good as another.

This is simply not true. He never “crows about how great it would be”. He is on record as having said the opposite.

I deal with Russians who know a LITTLE about America, and have opinions.
I deal with Americans who know even less about Russia, and have opinions.

In order to have opinions worth anything at all on complex issues especially in these times of information, misinformation, lies, both deliberate and unintentional repeating of falsehoods, one should know a good deal on the topic. Who here speaks Russian well, let alone fluently? Who has more than a sketchy knowledge (if that) of Russian literature and history? Who has talked to Russians who actually live in Russia and don’t have an axe to grind? My point is, that when most people here start talking about Russia, they don’t actually know very much (granted a few exceptions). Just having taken a semester-length college course in Russian language or history or having an acquaintance who is an angry immigrant who got a raw deal in his home country, for example, really isn’t good enough to consider oneself genuinely informed.

Now as someone who really DOES know a good deal, I CAN say that what IS true is that there IS a part of P’s base that does indeed dream of restoring the Soviet Union. But they are not a majority by any means. What a majority DOES want is a little more economic security and less poverty, and corruption and bureaucracy slows and sometimes prevents growth of small private businesses that would enable to be more self-sufficient and less dependent on government. Some nostalgically remember their carefree childhoods in the USSR, protected from knowledge of evils by their parents, and so they remember the good and choose not to see the bad, and this comprises that minority of Stalinists and “Back to the USSR-ists”. This attitude didn’t exist 15 years ago. Back then, they were eager to be our friends and allies. It slowly grew as a response to the gradual expansion of NATO ever-eastward, until what had been Kansas or Florida for them started threatening to become part of China, so to speak. Most people were suddenly shocked at the annexation of the Crimea. That’s because they had been clueless and blithely ignorant of what our politicians, Victoria Nuland, John McCain, etc, had been doing to get Ukraine to join the EU and NATO, while deliberately excluding Russia, as NATO’s only raison d’être, reason for being, has been to point a sword at Russia. And we have pushed the sword right to Russia’s throat, and expect them to take it quietly, a people who themselves had been thoroughly overrun and devastated by the Germans in ways we can hardly imagine in WW2. We experienced nothing like it. We forgot about the war much more quickly because we suffered so much less. People stopped observing VE and VJ Day when I was a child. The old veterans tried to rally us, but we hadn’t been hurt enough to care to maintain historical memory. But in Russia, nearly every family lost somebody, some families lost everybody, and the effect of the hurt went on and on. And here we are, ready to set up military forces and nuclear weapons on their doorstep, inside of what had been their old fences. How can one not understand it, when it is put to them plainly?

 

[rakovsky]

starting provocations during the Olympics.
On the eve of the Beijing games U.S. state department greenlighted Georgia to start a military offensive in South Ossetia.
Then during the midst of the Sochi winter games they turned up the heat (Nuland handing out the cookies) and collapsed the then Kiev government in the middle of the games.

What's happening now is from the same playbook just another underhanded western tactic during a global event that's meant to bring people together.

Interesting point about past Olympics. So weird.

 

[Nick1000]

This is simply not true. He never “crows about how great it would be”. He is on record as having said the opposite.

I deal with Russians who know a LITTLE about America, and have opinions.
I deal with Americans who know even less about Russia, and have opinions.

In order to have opinions worth anything at all on complex issues especially in these times of information, misinformation, lies, both deliberate and unintentional repeating of falsehoods, one should know a good deal on the topic. Who here speaks Russian well, let alone fluently? Who has more than a sketchy knowledge (if that) of Russian literature and history? Who has talked to Russians who actually live in Russia and don’t have an axe to grind? My point is, that when most people here start talking about Russia, they don’t actually know very much (granted a few exceptions). Just having taken a semester-length college course in Russian language or history or having an acquaintance who is an angry immigrant who got a raw deal in his home country, for example, really isn’t good enough to consider oneself genuinely informed.

Now as someone who really DOES know a good deal, I CAN say that what IS true is that there IS a part of P’s base that does indeed dream of restoring the Soviet Union. But they are not a majority by any means. What a majority DOES want is a little more economic security and less poverty, and corruption and bureaucracy slows and sometimes prevents growth of small private businesses that would enable to be more self-sufficient and less dependent on government. Some nostalgically remember their carefree childhoods in the USSR, protected from knowledge of evils by their parents, and so they remember the good and choose not to see the bad, and this comprises that minority of Stalinists and “Back to the USSR-ists”. This attitude didn’t exist 15 years ago. Back then, they were eager to be our friends and allies. It slowly grew as a response to the gradual expansion of NATO ever-eastward, until what had been Kansas or Florida for them started threatening to become part of China, so to speak. Most people were suddenly shocked at the annexation of the Crimea. That’s because they had been clueless and blithely ignorant of what our politicians, Victoria Nuland, John McCain, etc, had been doing to get Ukraine to join the EU and NATO, while deliberately excluding Russia, as NATO’s only raison d’être, reason for being, has been to point a sword at Russia. And we have pushed the sword right to Russia’s throat, and expect them to take it quietly, a people who themselves had been thoroughly overrun and devastated by the Germans in ways we can hardly imagine in WW2. We experienced nothing like it. We forgot about the war much more quickly because we suffered so much less. People stopped observing VE and VJ Day when I was a child. The old veterans tried to rally us, but we hadn’t been hurt enough to care to maintain historical memory. But in Russia, nearly every family lost somebody, some families lost everybody, and the effect of the hurt went on and on. And here we are, ready to set up military forces and nuclear weapons on their doorstep, inside of what had been their old fences. How can one not understand it, when it is put to them plainly?

Putin has made many comments about how when the Soviet Union collapsed he felt like the historical glory days of Russia were gone.

 

[rakovsky]

Putin has made many comments about how when the Soviet Union collapsed he felt like the historical glory days of Russia were gone.

The downturn of Russia after the collapse of the USSR was a real thing, but it wasn't really like Putin was crowing about it or making it a major political platform or something. I don't envision him planning to forcibly take over the Caucasus or Baltics, for example, just because they were part of the USSR. By analogy, if the Russian Empire once owned Alaska and someone in ROCOR says that they are sorry that the Russian empire fell apart, it doesn't mean that the ROCOR person have a goal of bringing Alaska back as part of Russia.

In other words, it's not correct to theorize: Putin was sorry that the USSR collapsed, therefore Putin must be secretly planning to forcibly reintegrate all of its territories.

In the Ukraine case, there are a bunch of factors, like:
- Ukrainians on average being divided on the Russia v West issue, or just not caring much
- Ukraine being next to Russia
- Ukraine being a historic integral part of Russia (Kiev Rus)
- Pro-Russian factions in Ukraine (Donbass)
- The Crimea issue
- Eastward NATO expansion and the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO.
- Russia v NATO sphere of influence issues regarding Ukraine

 

[Nick1000]

In the Ukraine case, there are a bunch of factors, like:
- Ukrainians on average being divided on the Russia v West issue, or just not caring much
- Ukraine being next to Russia
- Ukraine being a historic integral part of Russia (Kiev Rus)
- Pro-Russian factions in Ukraine (Donbass)
- The Crimea issue
- Eastward NATO expansion and the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO.
- Russia v NATO sphere of influence issues regarding Ukraine

Well, there is that other little inconvenient factor whereby the Ukraine is a separate sovereign country now even though Vlad is pining away and has all sorts of historical and geographical reasons why he thinks it should not be that way.

 

[rakovsky]

Well, there is that other little inconvenient factor whereby the Ukraine is a separate sovereign country now even though Vlad is pining away and has all sorts of historical and geographical reasons why he thinks it should not be that way.

Where did Putin say that Ukraine should not be a "separate sovereign country"?