Wuhan coronavirus (global health emergency)

[essentialsaltes]

ETA: Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHO

ETA: Track the disease with the coronavirus dashboard courtesy of Johns Hopkins.

Jan. 22 Chinese authorities have urged people to stop travelling in and out of Wuhan, the city at the centre of a new virus outbreak that has killed 17 people.

Those living in the city of 8.9 million people have also been told to avoid crowds and minimise public gatherings.

"Basically, do not go to Wuhan. And those in Wuhan please do not leave the city," said National Health Commission vice-minister Li Bin in one of the first public briefings since the beginning of the outbreak.

The new virus has spread from Wuhan to several Chinese provinces, as well as the US, Thailand and South Korea.

There are 440 confirmed cases, with the origin a seafood market that "conducted illegal transactions of wild animals".

The virus, known also as 2019-nCoV, is understood to be a new strain of coronavirus that has not previously been identified in humans. The Sars virus that killed nearly 800 people globally in the early 2000s was also a coronavirus.

 

[mama2one]

husband was in China in November & came back sick
he was not in Wuhan

he had trouble getting well & went through two different antibiotics
second time to Dr, they did x-ray which showed he had beginning stages of pneumonia
we missed Christmas with family as he was still sick

fortunately, the second antibiotic worked

he's travelled to China for yrs but first time he came home so sick

 

[timothyu]

Guess it will take another plague of epic proportions like the middle ages or 1917 to wake people up.

 

[Nithavela]

Quick, get to greenland.

 

[timothyu]

Dealing with the plague (17 sec)

 

[Petros2015]

I think I checked a day or two ago was 300 infected and 6 dead, this morning ~600 and 17.
Wuhan has soldiers stationed at railways and airports, and they are closing highways.
Food prices have doubled in Wuhan, which is a city of 11 million people, 3 million more than New York.
Imagine sealing off New York subways, highways and airports. Also theaters and major gathering places closed.

The virus is already outside the city though and in several neighboring countries.
When China was reporting 300 a couple of days ago, London epidemiology models suggested it might be more like 1700 based on the spread that had already occurred outside of Wuhan.

China has a history of concealing problems; they are obviously not delaying action on this and taking it seriously now, which means that it's probably Pretty Serious.

The kill rate and spread rate of the virus have yet to be determined, but if it kills like SARS, the deaths will lag the infection count by about 3 weeks. People get sick, they go to the hospital and have to be put on respirator to survive because it destroys their lungs. After about 3 weeks, they die anyway. But the life-support induced lag time makes it look like its less dangerous than it is. 100 infected and 3 dead doesn't sound so bad (3%), until you realize there's another 7 that are going to die in three weeks. But 3 weeks later when it's 10000 infected and 300 dead it still doesn't look so bad (3%), but again there's another 700 that are dead already, they just don't know it.

For comparison, Spanish Influenza, "the Big One", had a kill rate of about 3%.

Coronavirus Live Updates: China Bans Travel From More Cities

 

[Nithavela]

 

[essentialsaltes]

Major Chinese cities, including the capital of Beijing and virus-hit Wuhan, have banned all large gatherings over the coming Lunar New Year festival, the most important holiday on the Chinese calendar, in an effort contain the rapidly spreading outbreak.

The announcement Thursday came as authorities extended travel restrictions imposed on Wuhan to surrounding municipalities, shutting down travel networks and attempting to quarantine some 25 million people — more than the entire population of Florida. Here is what we know:

●Cases of the virus have been detected around China, including Hong Kong and Macao, and other countries such as Japan, South Korea, United States and Thailand.

●At least 17 deathss have been confirmed in China, with more than 630 people infected.

 

[durangodawood]

Guess it will take another plague of epic proportions like the middle ages to wake people up.

Did it wake people up back then?

 

[Nithavela]

Did it wake people up back then?

Jup.

https://dailyhistory.org/How_did_the_Bubonic_Plague_make_the_Italian_Renaissance_possible?

 

[essentialsaltes]

● There are more than 1,000 confirmed cases of infection, and at least 41 people have died. A total of 8,420 people are reported to be under observation.

● A young, previously healthy man died in Wuhan, raising concerns about the deadliness of the virus. Until now, the vast majority of victims have been older than 60 with preexisting conditions.

 

[Petros2015]

● There are more than 1,000 confirmed cases of infection, and at least 41 people have died. A total of 8,420 people are reported to be under observation.

Soooo... 300 cases and 6 dead on Jan 22.
And you get the below 5 days later at the end of Jan 26.
BONUS MATH CHALLENGE!
Anyone care to calculate the rate of growth there?

I think you are looking at about 60% compound growth in cases per day currently. 10%+ kill rate at least, possibly as high as 15 to 20%.

Many of those Critical Care patients will resolve as dead a few weeks later, they are on life support ventilation. You'll see that start to go quicker though because of limited supplies of mechanical respirators.

Virus death toll up to 82 as China extends holiday

Looks like Mother Nature spent the last 2 decades weaponizing SARS.

Oh, this just in. Update.

The number of total confirmed cases in China rose to 4,515 as of 27 January, up from 2,835 a day earlier.

 

[jacks]

Just to put things into perspective.
It was an exceptionally bad year but in 2018 about 80,000 people died of the flu in the U.S. alone. HERE
The usual death toll in the US for flu is about 8,000 to 20,000. HERE

 

[timothyu]

Meanwhile 8400 have died of the regular flu in the US this winter.

 

[FireDragon76]

That's very unfortunate.

 

[Yekcidmij]

Just to put things into perspective.
It was an exceptionally bad year but in 2018 about 80,000 people died of the flu in the U.S. alone. HERE
The usual death toll in the US for flu is about 8,000 to 20,000. HERE

A typical flu mortality rate is 0.1%; this year's so far is 0.05%. Coronavirus is around 3% at the moment. Seasonal flu R0 rates are around 1.3. Coronavirus seems to be between 2-3.

So far this flu season, 15,000,000 people have the seasonal flu with 8,200 deaths. With a 3% mortality rate, if 15 million people had coronavirus, the death toll would be around 450,000 based on current stats. It is potentially a much bigger problem than seasonal flu. Hopefully health org's around the world are successful in it's containment and possible cures.

Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics: insights into the future of swine flu (H1N1). - PubMed - NCBI

The Deceptively Simple Number Sparking Coronavirus Fears

 

[essentialsaltes]

ETA: Track the disease with the coronavirus dashboard courtesy of Johns Hopkins.​

 

[joshua 1 9]

These people must be crazy. They crowd into a hospital and that is the last place they should be is around people that most likely have this virus. I have been in Hong Kong and there are times you can not avoid being a part of a large crowd. The best things to do is head away from the people as soon as you realize a crowd is beginning to form.

 

[Cis.jd]

Ebola virus, swine flu, anthrax.. what are the others again?

 

[CRAZY_CAT_WOMAN]

This was big new Yesterday, where I live. Since it's not to far. From where I live. Americans Evacuated From Coronavirus Epicenter Land in U.S.