Will Joe Biden cave?

[civilwarbuff]

The question, though, isn't whether he'll lose votes for being too far left. The question is whether he'll lose votes if he selects a black woman as a running mate.

How can you tell the difference?

 

[PloverWing]

How can you tell the difference?

Exit polls might be one way to get an estimate. "Who did you vote for? Did having Jane Doe for a running mate influence your vote?"

 

[Hank77]

The question, though, isn't whether he'll lose votes for being too far left. The question is whether he'll lose votes if he selects a black woman as a running mate.

I don't think he will. Not if we look at the number of white people, men and women both who marched in the protests along the side of black and brown people. Sometimes there were more whites than blacks.

To refuse to vote for someone because of the color of their skin is old, antiquated thinking.

 

[PloverWing]

I don't think he will. Not if we look at the number of white people, men and women both who marched in the protests along the side of black and brown people. Sometimes there were more whites than blacks.

To refuse to vote for someone because of the color of their skin is old, antiquated thinking.

I'd forgotten the demographics of the protests. That's encouraging.

 

[civilwarbuff]

Exit polls might be one way to get an estimate. "Who did you vote for? Did having Jane Doe for a running mate influence your vote?"

I think they tried that on the last election and then some.....
ABC News, CBS News, CNN and NBC News are all part of the National Election Pool, which is run by Edison Research. According to Edison, it has conducted the only exit polls in the U.S. since 2004.

NEP, based in New Jersey, says it conducts in-person interviews with over 100,000 voters as they leave their polling stations on the day of the election. The group also interviews voters at early voting locations, as well as phone interviews with early and absentee voters.

When exit polls show one candidate with a massive lead that is well beyond the surveys' margin of error, the networks in the NEP make early projections calling that candidate the winner.

But exit polls can get it wrong.

In the 2016 presidential election, exit polls appeared to indicate some battleground states were breaking for Hillary Clinton, but they ended up being won by Donald Trump.

Similarly, in 2004, exit polling appeared to indicate that the Democratic challenger John Kerry was poised to defeat incumbent President George W. Bush, who went on to win reelection.

And in the 2008 New Hampshire Democratic primary, exit polls indicated Barack Obama was going to beat Clinton, who went on to win the state.

In perhaps the most famous case, both Al Gore and George Bush were declared the winners of the key state of Florida in the 2000 election, in a race that was actually too close to call and was not decided until a Supreme Court ruling a month later.
Super Tuesday: How are races called with 0% of vote reporting?

 

[Hank77]

I hope you're wrong, but maybe you're right. We'll see in November, I guess.

52% of independents voted for Obama in 2008 and 60% of moderates.
45% of independents voted for Obama in 2012 and 52% of moderates.

How Groups Voted in 2008 | Roper Center for Public Opinion Research
How Groups Voted in 2012 | Roper Center for Public Opinion Research

 

[Redwingfan9]

Black male leaders warn Biden ‘will lose’ election if he doesn't name Black female running mate
A group of over 100 Black male leaders is declaring that presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden “has” to name a Black woman as his running mate.

In a letter made public on Monday, the signatories warned the former vice president that “failing to select a Black woman in 2020 means you will lose the election.”

Will Joe cave to the demands made in the letter?....has he already caved even before the letter?.....Or will we be able to tell the difference?

It's an idle threat. Trump already has the support of 20% of young black men. They might not show up for Trump on election day but they won't pull the lever for Biden. Beyond that, the frontrunning black woman is Harris, who any number of black people can't stand because of her actions as attorney general in California and her support for three strikes laws.

 

[Sistrin]

Biden will pick who he is told to pick. No more complicated than that.

 

[Basil the Great]

Yes, I believe that Joe will "cave" as you put it, though considering his lead in the polls, he could probably pick the MI Governor and still get elected.

 

[Kenny'sID]

Will Joe cave to the demands made in the letter?....has he already caved even before the letter?.....Or will we be able to tell the difference?

Door # two and three.

 

[TexFire316]

Black male leaders warn Biden ‘will lose’ election if he doesn't name Black female running mate
A group of over 100 Black male leaders is declaring that presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden “has” to name a Black woman as his running mate.

In a letter made public on Monday, the signatories warned the former vice president that “failing to select a Black woman in 2020 means you will lose the election.”

Will Joe cave to the demands made in the letter?....has he already caved even before the letter?.....Or will we be able to tell the difference?

I don't think he will cave willingly. But I think his controllers will 'help him see the light'

 

[JustSomeBloke]

No cave-in is required.

He can have absolutely anyone he wants, just so long as they identify as a black woman.

 

[tulc]

It's an idle threat. Trump already has the support of 20% of young black men.

so...Biden has the support of the other 80%?

They might not show up for Trump on election day but they won't pull the lever for Biden. (snip)

Doesn't that mean it doesn't matter who they support if they don't bother to vote? The people who vote tend to be the people who get people elected more than the people who don't vote, that's sort of how elections work.
tulc(first rule of Chicago politics)

 

[jacks]

 

[bekkilyn]

Can't we just have the black woman, whomever she may be, as president and skip over both Biden and Trump?

 

[Radagast]

I honestly can't think of a worse choice for PRESIDENT, so his running mate doesn't matter.

If Biden wins, his VP choice will be President within weeks of inauguration. So the VP choice really does matter.

 

[mindlight]

I mostly agree but she has an issue with not being able to hold her tongue (a big argument people have about Trump) and being very foul mouthed and insulting to others (again not unlike Trump).

She balances the boringness of Biden in that respect. If I were an American Republican I would see both opportunities in her candidacy and a threat. The opportunities include an apparent lack of faith, a blindness to the threat of Islamuc terrorism and her LGBT agends. The threat is her raw intelligence and international experience and that she represents two groups of people demanding to be heard right now

 

[returntosender]

That notion is ridiculous. A VP choice hasn't swayed the outcome of an election in decades.

It will this time because whoever Biden chooses will be running the country if he wins.

 

[Radagast]

It will this time because whoever Biden chooses will be running the country if he wins.

Which means that however gets picked, their policies will be a major election issue.

 

[returntosender]

Which means that however gets picked, their policies will be a major election issue.

True, so choose wisely.