Why the stay at home order needs to be lifted now

[Ken Rank]

I truly believe that all life is precious. From human life down to the darn squirrels I beep at to make sure I don't run them over. So understand, this post is not in any way meant to treat lightly, anyone lost from Covid 19 (or anything else for that matter). While death is part of life, it is tragic for those touched by it and I am VERY aware of that.

On the radio just now I heard one of our local news men say, “More and more states are preparing to reopen despite the nation reaching 82,000 Covid 19 deaths.” I like this guy, but that view, that FOCUS, which is the view of almost all media outlets, focuses only on death and not on something that should be glaringly obvious to us all. Most people either don't get Covid 19 or get it and recover. Please consider the following:

I doubt now that 82,000 deaths is accurate, there is enough evidence suggesting it is inflated. But using that number to make my point... then up to this point and time, the odds of you contracting and dying from Covid 19 are 0.02%. And, EVEN IF the death tolls doubles, the odds of getting and dying from Covid 19 will still only be 0.04%.

That is, to make it clear folks, zero point zero. You have a 3X better chance of getting sick, entering a hospital, and dying by doctor error (250,000 cases of that last year) then you do of contracting and dying from Covid 19.

0.0 and yet the world's 5th largest economy, California, is considering extending the stay at home order for 3 more months. A stay at home order designed ONLY TO prevent hospitals from going above capacity. The hospitals, yes, even in California, are not only below capacity, they are losing millions and are virtually empty.

YOU need to call your governor. YOU need to call your state rep. YOU need to post repeatedly in every social media platform you are part of. YOU need to make sure your voice is heard. Why? Because the deaths that will result from increased homelessness due to a collapsed economy will dwarf the death toll from this virus. And that suffering will be on the streets... old people, children.... starvation, disease, suicide... that is what historically comes out of situations like that.

This entire situation is now politicized. 0.0 folks... that number is EVERYTHING. And despite 0.0, you have a number of states, all under Democratic control, looking to extend this stay at home order to do what? Get the number BELOW 0.0? Again, all life is indeed precious... so much so that we have to prevent an even greater tragedy which will come in the form of starvation, suicide, and additional diseases all stemming from people who could have otherwise worked and provided for their families. Men and women with children who were told “no” by some elected official who MIGHT very well be making decisions purely from his/her personal political bias!

As the old adage states, “Speak now or forever hold your peace.”

 

[GreekOrthodox]

We are starting to open things up carefully here in Virginia. Restaurants can seat outside at 50% capacity. Non-essential stores can begin opening up. But I see plenty of people walking around without any kind of mask, especially in the local grocery and home improvement stores. Believe me, you WANT me to wear a mask. I work in a hospital with approximately 40 Covid patients, about 10 of which are in an ICU setting. I expect by the end of May that we will begin ramping up with patients. Personally, I'm staying as isolated as possible as I fit into a moderate risk of hospitalization. Plus I care that I don't infect anyone else if I am or become an asymptomatic carrier.

 

[sfs]

I doubt now that 82,000 deaths is accurate, there is enough evidence suggesting it is inflated.

There's good evidence that it's an understatement.

But using that number to make my point... then up to this point and time, the odds of you contracting and dying from Covid 19 are 0.02%. And, EVEN IF the death tolls doubles, the odds of getting and dying from Covid 19 will still only be 0.04%.

Why would the death toll only double? At best 5% of the population has been infected at this point and can be presumed immune. If you go back to normal behavior, you can expect the death toll to increase 15-fold.

 

[A_Thinker]

I truly believe that all life is precious. From human life down to the darn squirrels I beep at to make sure I don't run them over. So understand, this post is not in any way meant to treat lightly, anyone lost from Covid 19 (or anything else for that matter). While death is part of life, it is tragic for those touched by it and I am VERY aware of that.

On the radio just now I heard one of our local news men say, “More and more states are preparing to reopen despite the nation reaching 82,000 Covid 19 deaths.” I like this guy, but that view, that FOCUS, which is the view of almost all media outlets, focuses only on death and not on something that should be glaringly obvious to us all. Most people either don't get Covid 19 or get it and recover. Please consider the following:

I doubt now that 82,000 deaths is accurate, there is enough evidence suggesting it is inflated. But using that number to make my point... then up to this point and time, the odds of you contracting and dying from Covid 19 are 0.02%. And, EVEN IF the death tolls doubles, the odds of getting and dying from Covid 19 will still only be 0.04%.

That is, to make it clear folks, zero point zero. You have a 3X better chance of getting sick, entering a hospital, and dying by doctor error (250,000 cases of that last year) then you do of contracting and dying from Covid 19.

0.0 and yet the world's 5th largest economy, California, is considering extending the stay at home order for 3 more months. A stay at home order designed ONLY TO prevent hospitals from going above capacity. The hospitals, yes, even in California, are not only below capacity, they are losing millions and are virtually empty.

YOU need to call your governor. YOU need to call your state rep. YOU need to post repeatedly in every social media platform you are part of. YOU need to make sure your voice is heard. Why? Because the deaths that will result from increased homelessness due to a collapsed economy will dwarf the death toll from this virus. And that suffering will be on the streets... old people, children.... starvation, disease, suicide... that is what historically comes out of situations like that.

This entire situation is now politicized. 0.0 folks... that number is EVERYTHING. And despite 0.0, you have a number of states, all under Democratic control, looking to extend this stay at home order to do what? Get the number BELOW 0.0? Again, all life is indeed precious... so much so that we have to prevent an even greater tragedy which will come in the form of starvation, suicide, and additional diseases all stemming from people who could have otherwise worked and provided for their families. Men and women with children who were told “no” by some elected official who MIGHT very well be making decisions purely from his/her personal political bias!

As the old adage states, “Speak now or forever hold your peace.”

It is being lifted now.

We are in the midst of transition ...

 

[essentialsaltes]

up to this point and time, the odds of you contracting and dying from Covid 19 are 0.02%.

Adding to what sfs said, in New York State it's 0.14%. If we throw caution to the winds, it could be at least that bad everywhere. Your idea of doubling is far too optimistic.

 

[Albion]

Again, all life is indeed precious... so much so that we have to prevent an even greater tragedy which will come in the form of starvation, suicide, and additional diseases all stemming from people who could have otherwise worked and provided for their families.

The defenders of the police state do not want to hear of this side of the issue, but you are absolutely right.

While the consequences of not locking everyone up for months and months have been publicized to no end, complete (of course) with statistics about estimated deaths...

the many terrible consequences of continuing the lockdowns indefinitely, or for an extended period of time, never occur to most people. Yet each disruption in the economy and in normal life causes a series of other dangers to be set in motion, deaths included.

Fortunately, experts are beginning to be heard explaining what they are, but the "stay in the house or we're all dead" scenario still is the more dramatic and easy to appreciate by the average person.

 

[Albion]

It is being lifted now.

We are in the midst of transition ...

Let's hope that what you are referring to turns out to be more than just tokenism.

 

[Isilwen]

To the OP; your post is a stab the back to people such as myself working on the front lines in the medical field.

We are not ready to open, not even close. It's not about those who will not come down with the symptoms, but rather about who they will unknowingly spread it to.

I will continue to open my mouth in favor of continuing stay-at-home orders.

 

[Hank77]

This entire situation is now politicized. 0.0 folks... that number is EVERYTHING. And despite 0.0, you have a number of states, all under Democratic control, looking to extend this stay at home order to do what?

Some states are trying to follow the federal government's 3 Phase plan for opening up their state. Many states that are opening have not met the very first goal for Phase 1. They may be OK IF they follow the other guidelines, wearing masks, etc., and they closely follow contact tracing with testing.
The problem for many states is that they don't have enough supplies, swabs, etc., and even tests to follow through with contact tracing testing.

Colorado was trying to open up in a safe way even though they aren't prepared to test enough for contact tracing and look what happened. It wasn't good enough for the restaurant in Castle Rock that they could
have take out they opened their doors to a crowd of people on Mother's Day.
Will/did any moms and grandmas get infected through this Mother's Day crowded opening? Let's hope not. But Colorado can't know and quarantine those who may be infected so they will be walking around infecting people who weren't there and have been diligently working with the state to stop the spread so the state can remain open.

 

[A_Thinker]

Let's hope that what you are referring to turns out to be more than just tokenism.

By the end of the week, 48 states will be easing restrictions ...

 

[Tom 1]

"stay in the house or we're all dead"

Who ever put that forward as an idea?

 

[Albion]

Will/did any moms and grandmas get infected through this Mother's Day crowded opening? Let's hope not. But Colorado can't know and quarantine those who may be infected so they will be walking around infecting people who weren't there and have been diligently working with the state to stop the spread so the state can remain open.

You cannot use a rare example of some people going outside the lines as a justification for closing down nearly everything, particularly when the exceptions ("essential services") are little more than what one pressure group or another leveraged out of the governors.

And if you don't think so, try explaining why thousands of businesses are closing their doors forever while lottery ticket sales are deemed to be "essential" along with tattoo parlors (but not beauty parlors), marijuana distributors, and liquor sales.

 

[Albion]

By the end of the week, 48 states will be easing restrictions ...

Yeh, but "easing" isn't the issue.

 

[GreekOrthodox]

To the OP; your post is a stab the back to people such as myself working on the front lines in the medical field.

We are not ready to open, not even close. It's not about those who will not come down with the symptoms, but rather about who they will unknowingly spread it to.

I will continue to open my mouth in favor of continuing stay-at-home orders.

I'm in favor of requiring those that want to throw the doors wide open to work on a Covid ward for a month.

 

[Hank77]

You cannot use a rare example of some people going outside the lines as a justification for closing down nearly everything, particularly when the exceptions ("essential services") are little more than what one pressure group or another leveraged out of the governors.

Seeing that I never said that and neither did the Governor of Colorado, we agree.

 

[Albion]

I'm in favor of requiring those that want to throw the doors wide open to work on a Covid ward for a month.

You and a previous poster talk as though hospitals would have nothing to do if there were not the Covid pandemic.

Yes, if estimates of deaths mean anything, the deaths attributed to the virus (and we know that the reporting is suspect), are put at 80,000 or so. However, other medical authorities are telling us that almost that many will die BECAUSE of the lockdowns.

And this assumes that any government can just ignore the Constitution, even for a "good reason."

 

[Isilwen]

You and Isilwin talk as though hospitals would have
nothing to do if there were not the Covid pandemic.

Nothing I have said even implies that. Try again!

And this assumes that any government can just ignore the Constitution, even for a "good reason."

So, doing stay-at-home orders to keep people safe is unconstitutional? Will you be screaming tyranny next?

However, other medical authorities are telling us that almost that many will die BECAUSE of the lockdowns.

I'm guessing they are more concerned about the economy and keeping Trump in office and are using that as a way to get officials to lift restrictions. They are wrong also.

 

[Albion]

I'm guessing they are more concerned about the economy and keeping Trump in office and are using that as a way to get officials to lift restrictions. They are wrong also.

Well, you (or anyone) certainly can try to win an argument by attributing some unpleasant motives to the people being disagreed with. But if we simply prolong the lockdowns rather than moving to end most of them, the results of keeping society shut down will be much worse than most people realize.

There will be no going back to normal even now, but extending the thing will be disastrous.

I'm guessing they are more concerned about the economy and keeping Trump in office and are using that as a way to get officials to lift restrictions.

It is much easier to make the counter argument, i.e. that it's no accident that almost all the governors who are keeping their states locked down are Democrats and some of them are known to be prospective candidates for the Democratic nomination for VP (or even President if Biden continues to falter).

 

[paul1149]

the odds of you contracting and dying from Covid 19 are 0.02%.

That is to say, the odds of dying from the CCP virus are .02% IF you contract it. Many will not contract it, so the denominator is even larger.

Both sides have some good arguments. NYC is the epicenter of the virus in the US (and probably the world) because Cuomo and De Blasio did not restrict the NYC subway to essential travel. De Blasio was still encouraging people to come to public functions late in the game, even later than Pelosi with her infamous invitation to come to Chinatown in SF. Masks were not required on the subway until a few weeks ago. Then there's Cuomo's disastrous order for nursing homes to accept Covid patients from hospitals.

That's a different picture than in South Dakota, where the average distance between people is measured in miles. We're a big country and one size does not fit all.

But for governors to lock down beaches and other outdoor areas is baseless. To prevent churches from open-air services is absurd. To empty prisons of violent criminals and then fill the cells with businessmen trying to feed their families and avoid ruination is itself criminal.

So I support intelligent civil disobedience. Not all the rules should be broken at this point, but many should. All the models were wrong. It's past time to get back to work.

BTW, this is a compelling video. Watch to the end. Slight language warning.

California Police STAND DOWN After Marine Vet
https://invidio.us/watch?v=DTqipTcwxyA

 

[A_Thinker]

Yeh, but "easing" isn't the issue.

What is the lssue ?

Tell you what .... given what you know and think, ... what do you think is the best approach to deal with the current Coronavirus/Shutdown situation.

And, if you're not averse to it, tell us what level of human loss of life you are willing to endure in your plan ?