Why the Conservatives are likely to Win the next Election

[Genersis]

Boundary changes
The Conservatives are set to change the boundaries to be more in their favour, as Labour used to benefit from the current one.

EU Referendum
The pro-EU parties will be punished by the electorate for having to openly voice support for the unpopular EU to try and sway the referendum. Conservatives may not benefit as much if their pro-EU leadership contradicts the party too much.

Gains from UKIP
I personally think it likely the UK will leave the EU, if we did I think the Conservatives might gain 3-4% of support from UKIP, giving them a lead Labour will struggle to topple.
Alternatively, if we stay in the EU than the Conservatives might lose support to UKIP.

Scotland leaving the UK
If Scotland , unlike the UK as a whole, votes to stay in the EU I think it likely they will call for a referendum and leave the UK, meaning 51 less anti-Tory MPs(new boundaries).
Alternatively, judging by how the press have talked about Scotland recently, Scotland leaving the union might also score the Conservatives popularity...

New leader
It's well know that by the next election a new Conservative leader will be in place(likely Boris).
After all the protests, and possibly riots, caused by cuts to public services, as well as general discontent for losing Scotland, the Conservative could benefit greatly by having a new face at the top.
The party may appear refreshed and new, and might help everyone forget a lot of the less popular stuff that came before.


So what do you guys here think of the above? Agree? Disagree?
Other than the first point, this is all speculation, but I think the outcomes are possible and even probable.

 

[Oafman]

They will win in 2020. For all the reasons you list, and two more;
- an incompetent opposition
- Rupert Murdoch's support. He's never lost an election.

 

[Genersis]

They will win in 2020. For all the reasons you list, and two more;
- an incompetent opposition

I'm waiting to see the direction Labour takes in response, but as of now, it's not looking especially good.

What do you think they need to do to become a stronger party?

- Rupert Murdoch's support. He's never lost an election.

I'm not entirely convinced he doesn't just side with whichever party he thinks is going to win.

 

[theFijian]

Scotland will still be part of the UK by 2020, Cameron will call the SNPs bluff on Full Fiscal Autonomy now that the SNP bluster from the referendum has been exposed. In fact the SNP have had to admit that they would need to borrow to pay for FFA, and as one of their new MPs eloquently put it...

"For Scotland to accept fiscal autonomy without inbuilt UK-wide fiscal balancing would be tantamount to economic suicide"

In other words, they want to have their cake and eat it, and for the rest of the UK to pay for the cake.

 

[Genersis]

I always thought full fiscal autonomy meant the freedom to spend Scotland's share of taxes raised however it saw fit, I wasn't aware it meant no longer pooling resources with the rest of the UK.

 

[theFijian]

I always thought full fiscal autonomy meant the freedom to spend Scotland's share of taxes raised however it saw fit, I wasn't aware it meant no longer pooling resources with the rest of the UK.

Only for shared resources ie. things like defence and foreign office stuff. Everything else, if Scotland wants to spend and money, then it has to raise it.

 

[Genersis]

Only for shared resources ie. things like defence and foreign office stuff. Everything else, if Scotland wants to spend and money, then it has to raise it.

Ah okay.
Not really a bright idea, at least some of the SNP realise that.

 

[Skavau]

I think the Conservatives are far more likely to win the next election than Labour but I don't think we'll leave the EU.

 

[theFijian]

I think the Conservatives are far more likely to win the next election than Labour but I don't think we'll leave the EU.

The tensions within the Labour party seem to have risen to the surface now. Obviously they are still the party of opposition but the division between the Blairites and those closer to 'old' Labour and the Unions seems more clear now, especially with the Unions giving 'warnings' about the leader candidates.

They lost seats to the SNP in Scotland and the Conservatives in England showing that they seem to appeal to neither the middle-England aspirational types or a more supposedly left-leaning electorate. They might get back in with a minority government next propped up by the Lib-dems but that would require both parties having a major recovery in fortunes. Or Labour might get in with a minority government propped up by the SNP, in which case there could be another independence referendum after that, by which time a win for Yes would by no means be a foregone conclusion as a lot of water would have gone under the bridge by that point. But much would depend on how much more mileage the SNP can get out of the grievance culture which is prevalent up here.

 

[Skavau]

Labour is in a pitiful state currently. There's a real prospect of it spiraling into an existential crisis in the next few years. The prospective leader lineup is dreadful.

 

[Genersis]

Labour is in a pitiful state currently. There's a real prospect of it spiraling into an existential crisis in the next few years. The prospective leader lineup is dreadful.

I recently heard that Diane Abbot and another left-wing candidate only managed to become candidates in the last leadership election on special measures to make sure the whole breadth of Labour's views were represented in discussions. Will likely have to do the same this time, especially with the left taking the blame for the lost election.

Not that it will matter, like last time they'll have a snowball's chance of winning.
Though things can, and likely will change; on the current zeitgeist I think Andy Burnham will win, and Labour will lose the next election unless the Conservatives can somehow find a way of making themselves so unpopular that not even the papers can spin the party in a good light.

I wonder what the next Labour leader will emphasise more.
The anti-immigrant and immigration rhetoric.
Fiscal "responsibility" by appearing even more eager to cut and "balance the books"(perhaps fully embracing the narrative that the crash was down to their feckless spending).
Appealing to these much talked about "aspirational voters", by targeting more beneficial policies towards the moderately well off in addition to the poor and disadvantaged.
Being pro-business by promising them goodies like tax cuts(perhaps entering an arms race with the Tories).

Can't imagine any other path they might take, heard murmurs of embracing electoral reform, but that's not likely considering that I think that was one of Chuka's ideas.
In addition, electoral reform would be a fresh idea(for Labour anyway) and give the party a solid purpose and not in any form be an idea embraced to please Tory voter's by being more Tory, so I'm incredibly sceptical of the chances of it gaining traction.

 

[Skavau]

I recently heard that Diane Abbot and another left-wing candidate only managed to become candidates in the last leadership election on special measures to make sure the whole breadth of Labour's views were represented in discussions. Will likely have to do the same this time, especially with the left taking the blame for the lost election.

I don't know that you can even blame the left for Labour's loss. If Labour were too left-wing why weren't lefties voting for them? They went to the SNP, Green or Plaid. I watched Labour in interviews and debates and they simply had no direction. No coherent plan, no coherent message, nothing. They couldn't occupy any ground effectively and why on earth would the centre demographic and swing voters go for Labour when there exist the Conservatives or Lib Dems?

In the North UKIP is even picking up Old Labour supporters through their Anti-EU and Immigration stance. Labour has nothing there as it seeks to modernise.

Labour simply have no real place in British politics currently. If you remove the tribal voters and the Anti-Tory contingent that vote Labour just to hurt the Conservatives then they're in real trouble.

 

[Genersis]

I don't know that you can even blame the left for Labour's loss. If Labour were too left-wing why weren't lefties voting for them? They went to the SNP, Green or Plaid. I watched Labour in interviews and debates and they simply had no direction. No coherent plan, no coherent message, nothing. They couldn't occupy any ground effectively and why on earth would the centre demographic and swing voters go for Labour when there exist the Conservatives or Lib Dems?

In the North UKIP is even picking up Old Labour supporters through their Anti-EU and Immigration stance. Labour has nothing there as it seeks to modernise.

Labour simply have no real place in British politics currently. If you remove the tribal voters and the Anti-Tory contingent that vote Labour just to hurt the Conservatives then they're in real trouble.

"Like the Torries, but not as nasty" seemed to be their plan/message/ETC.
Went down as well as Brown in 2010, because that's essentially what Labour always runs on.

Modern Labour seems to only win elections when the Conservatives have been weak and incompetent on such a massive scale that the media and a charismatic Labour leader can attack them on it consistently and effectively.Or in other words, Labour only wins when people don't want the Conservatives to.