Why do polls underestimate Trump support? Could be his base is disproportionately socially isolated

[essentialsaltes]

Interesting essay with oodles of links from 538.

Before you leap to your biases (left or right) just let this graph soak into your brain for a bit.

 

[cloudyday2]

Why would a person's active participation in civic groups affect his/her likelihood to be randomly selected to be polled?

What is the system used by pollsters today to select people?

 

[Mark Quayle]

Interesting essay with oodles of links from 538.

Before you leap to your biases (left or right) just let this graph soak into your brain for a bit.

If all "social ties" means is '"discussed important personal matter or concerns" in the previous six months', it may be a useless poll, other than to show some people are fairly independent and well adjusted, not needing other people or political correctness to direct their thinking.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Why would a person's active participation in civic groups affect his/her likelihood to be randomly selected to be polled?

I don't think it has to do with the initial selection, but rather these people's willingness to agree to take the poll. If you have a perfect sample of 1,000 people, but 100 of those people refuse to take the survey, then you have an imperfect sample of 900 people.

 

[essentialsaltes]

If all "social ties" means is '"discussed important personal matter or concerns" in the previous six months', it may be a useless poll, other than to show some people are fairly independent and well adjusted, not needing other people or political correctness to direct their thinking.

It does not mean the poll is useless. But if you like, we can recast these people as 'rugged individualists' who don't talk about personal matters with anybody.

 

[Tanj]

If all "social ties" means is '"discussed important personal matter or concerns" in the previous six months', it may be a useless poll, other than to show some people are fairly independent and well adjusted, not needing other people or political correctness to direct their thinking.

Id like to hear more. How is discussing important things with people in anyway related to political correctness or directing their thinking? I discuss important stuff with my wife all the time, and it has nothing to do with either.

 

[Mark Quayle]

Id like to hear more. How is discussing important things with people in anyway related to political correctness or directing their thinking? I discuss important stuff with my wife all the time, and it has nothing to do with either.

It didn't say "important things", but "important personal matters". Furthermore, since you mention your wife as someone you discuss with, most people like me consider our wives as "part of me", and not someone the poll is dealing with. Their response certainly doesn't rule that out.

Also, and I think this is more to the point than the pollster knows, there is a difference as to what independent thinking people consider important. For example, if I test positive for Covid, to me it is not an important personal matter. Nor is the flu.

 

[Tanj]

It didn't say "important things", but "important personal matters".

And what, you think that makes more sense rather than less?

Furthermore, since you mention your wife as someone you discuss with, most people like me consider our wives as "part of me", and not someone the poll is dealing with. Their response certainly doesn't rule that out.

I consider my wife to be an independent person. Pretty sure I'd get a smacking if I ever described her as "part of me". Regardless, the response does absolutely rule that out.

Also, and I think this is more to the point than the pollster knows, there is a difference as to what independent thinking people consider important. For example, if I test positive for Covid, to me it is not an important personal matter. Nor is the flu.

That doesn't matter either. What you consider important is irrelevant. Whether you discussed said thing with someone else is the poll question.

 

[Mark Quayle]

Why would a person's active participation in civic groups affect his/her likelihood to be randomly selected to be polled?

What is the system used by pollsters today to select people?

As a habit, oversampling Democrats by several degrees.

 

[Mark Quayle]

And what, you think that makes more sense rather than less?

Well, yes, actually. If someone asked me if I often discuss important matters with others, I'd say, sure. If they asked me if I often discuss important personal matters with others, I'd say no. My bipolar wife on the other hand, considered all kinds of things to be of extreme importance, (and if someone opposed her she'd take it to a personal level, haha). (I hope I wasn't getting personal saying that! *snerk*)

I consider my wife to be an independent person. Pretty sure I'd get a smacking if I ever described her as "part of me". Regardless, the response does absolutely rule that out.

I figured you would. Some of us, though, consider it an honor to be part of another person, particularly of a spouse.

That doesn't matter either. What you consider important is irrelevant. Whether you discussed said thing with someone else is the poll question.

Ha! Wow! How is it irrelevant what a poll responder considers important? Because the pollster, or you, says so? My whole statement is that if I don't consider what I discuss with others to be important / important and personal, that I will think, "Well, no, I don't habitually discuss such things with others", and as a result, my response shows up, "No". My wife on the other hand, would have said differently.

 

[cloudyday2]

I don't think it has to do with the initial selection, but rather these people's willingness to agree to take the poll. If you have a perfect sample of 1,000 people, but 100 of those people refuse to take the survey, then you have an imperfect sample of 900 people.

Not trying to be difficult, but it isn't obvious to me that a person who is less involved in civic groups is going to be less willing to participate in a poll.

 

[FireDragon76]

If all "social ties" means is '"discussed important personal matter or concerns" in the previous six months', it may be a useless poll, other than to show some people are fairly independent and well adjusted, not needing other people or political correctness to direct their thinking.

Being "independent" doesn't necessarily mean well-adjusted.

 

[FireDragon76]

It does not mean the poll is useless. But if you like, we can recast these people as 'rugged individualists' who don't talk about personal matters with anybody.

Or less willing to subject their own thoughts to interpersonal reflection and critique.

As I insinuated earlier, that's not necessarily healthy.

 

[Mark Quayle]

Being "independent" doesn't necessarily mean well-adjusted.

Of course not.

 

[RestoreTheJoy]

Interesting essay with oodles of links from 538.

Before you leap to your biases (left or right) just let this graph soak into your brain for a bit.

What it means is that one demographic is more subject to peer pressure than the other.

 

[Nithavela]

Interesting essay with oodles of links from 538.

Before you leap to your biases (left or right) just let this graph soak into your brain for a bit.

Why do the Trump columns ad up to more than 100 % and the Biden columns to less than 100 %?

 

[FireDragon76]

What it means is that one demographic is more subject to peer pressure than the other.

Not necessarily. Peer pressure need not involve interaction with actual people in an intimate manner.

 

[RestoreTheJoy]

Not necessarily. Peer pressure need not involve interaction with actual people in an intimate manner.

So...it's still peer pressure if online or whatever, if one is easily swayed. And many are.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Not trying to be difficult, but it isn't obvious to me that a person who is less involved in civic groups is going to be less willing to participate in a poll.

Well, I don't know about civic groups. The OP talks about social isolation, and the article refers to this study, which shows evidence that "social network isolation is negatively associated with unit response. [i.e. responding to surveys]". The study provides some data that confirms a widely held hypothesis about social isolation and willingness to take surveys.

 

[Tigger45]

Personally I think the discrepancy between Trump's poles and actual Trump voter turn out are the 'closet' Trumpsters. They are the ones who are embarrassed to admit they voted for him.