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Who will be the democratic nominee?

Discussion in 'American Politics' started by HTacianas, Feb 18, 2020.

  1. HTacianas

    HTacianas Well-Known Member

    +6,135
    United States
    Eastern Orthodox
    Single
    Place your bets now.

    I'm thinking it will be Bloomberg. It seems like the Democrats weren't happy with any of their organic candidates then Bloomberg made himself available.

    It will end up another brokered convention and the superdelegates will have their way.
     
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  2. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member Supporter

    +4,049
    Catholic
    Married
    US-Democrat
    BLOOMBERG seems most likely. The Vegas betting lines favor him winning the nomination and then beating Trump. I have BIDEN as next most likely, and also beating Trump. Then there is the possibility of Sanders and an Electoral College disaster, as well as well as losing the House to the Republicans.

    The Democratic Party hasn't had a brokered convention since there were primaries.

    In 2016, Clinton had a majority before the adding of super delegates. This year, the super delegates won't be allowed to vote in the first round. So, Sanders will have additional opportunities to get 50% before the second round starts.

    IMO, Sanders incapable of getting more than 45% of the delegates (basically his, most of Warren's and a few more).
     
  3. Silverback

    Silverback Well-Known Member

    +702
    United States
    Lutheran
    Married
    Bloomberg

    Trading in one narcissist for another narcissist, one billionaire for another billionaire, and one dinosaur for another dinosaur.

    Might as well keep President Trump.
     
  4. Albion

    Albion Facilitator

    +29,739
    Anglican
    Married
    Honestly, there's no telling.
     
  5. Kentonio

    Kentonio Well-Known Member

    +10,207
    France
    Atheist
    Single
    Bernie by a landslide. Bloomberg is about to have a very bad few weeks.
     
  6. Bobber

    Bobber Well-Known Member

    +2,457
    Non-Denom
    Bloomberg I suspect but if he thinks or imagines it'll be a walk in the park to beat Trump he'll face a reality check quite quick. Trump came out with an agenda that resonated with the American people and that was to create major change in Washington. (as in drain the swamp) Bloomberg wants to bring back the old. Even Bernie supporters DON'T WANT THAT.
     
  7. Rubiks

    Rubiks proud libtard

    +2,182
    United States
    Christian
    Single
    Iowa and New Hampshire are most likely going to be just about his best performances. Not a "landslide victory" by any means.
     
  8. Albion

    Albion Facilitator

    +29,739
    Anglican
    Married
    While I'm hesitant to pick a probable winner at this point, something in the back of my mind tells me it won't be Bloomberg, despite his money.

    He's not very likeable or personable, from what I can tell, not a great public speaker, and much about him cuts across the grain of Democratic Party activists.

    He is a political "party hopper" having been a Democrat, an Independent, and a Republican in a relatively short period of time--all coinciding with what would be most advantageous to him at the moment.

    We already have seen how his public remarks in the past were cold-blooded and offended several Democratic constituencies.

    He IS "trying to buy the nomination." That's sort of a well-travelled charge to level at any well-heeled candidate, but in this case, it's all his own money and he brags about how much he has. The amount spent probably will break all records by the time it's done. This profile cannot sit well with Democratic activists and delegates..
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2020
  9. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member Supporter

    +4,049
    Catholic
    Married
    US-Democrat
    I presume that this is your wish. Please post any evidence that this is likely to be the best performances of Sanders.

    Sanders get about 26% of the vote in Iowa and NH.

    The latest polls in NV and SC average about the same with Bernie having 31% of Nevada and 20% of SC. Bernie is at 26% in CA.
     
  10. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member Supporter

    +4,049
    Catholic
    Married
    US-Democrat
    This is a fine analysis.

    Older blacks and Latinos are in the same position as white evangelicals were in the 2016 Republican race. Will they hold their collective noses and vote for Bloomberg if their candidate (Biden) doesn't do better too? Or, do they allow the Democratic party to nominate Sanders, and work with Bloomberg and Steyer to save House seats.

    It is indeed very difficult to turn back these left wing waves that occur after an electoral loss. If Trump weren't so awful, the moderates wouldn't be trying so hard. They would simply focusing on the Senate, the House, on state races, and on local races. Surely, they would hope to pick up the pieces after a Sanders loss.
    ===========
    The ads showing Obama praising Trump are probably playing in every primary state on an hourly basis.
    I don't anything will convince older women of color to vote for Sanders (or for Buttigieg or Warren).

     
  11. ChristianForCats

    ChristianForCats Bible Reader

    +817
    United States
    Protestant
    Single
    US-Democrat
    I started a thread on the same topic with a poll.
     
  12. Kentonio

    Kentonio Well-Known Member

    +10,207
    France
    Atheist
    Single
    I think you’ll be very surprised with what’s about to come if you think that.
     
  13. Rubiks

    Rubiks proud libtard

    +2,182
    United States
    Christian
    Single
    Sanders Voters are disproportionally white and Iowa/New Hampshire are mostly white.
     
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