Who [in America] Is Dying from COVID Now - Scientific American

[essentialsaltes]

LINK

Today in the U.S., about 335 people will die from COVID—a disease for which there are highly effective vaccines, treatments and precautions. Who is still dying, and why?

Older people were always especially vulnerable and now make up a higher proportion of COVID fatalities than ever before in the pandemic. While the total number of COVID deaths has fallen, the burden of mortality is shifting even more to people older than age 64. And deaths in nursing homes are ticking back up, even as COVID remains one of the top causes of death for all ages. COVID deaths among people age 65 and older more than doubled between April and July this year, rising by 125 percent, according to a recent analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation. This trend increased with age: more than a quarter of all COVID fatalities were among those age 85 and older throughout the pandemic, but that share has risen to at least 38 percent since May.

The pandemic first hit urban areas harder, but mortality rose dramatically in rural areas by the summer of 2020—a pattern that has held. The gap is currently narrowing, but people living in rural areas are still dying at significantly higher rates. Rural death rates fell from 92.2 percent higher than urban rates at the end of September to 38.9 percent higher in mid-October.

While differences in age-adjusted death rates based on race have recently become smaller, experts predict inequities will likely skyrocket again during surges [such as an impending winter surge].

More than 200,000 people have already died because of COVID in the U.S. in 2022, and President Joe Biden’s administration is bracing for 30,000 to 70,000 more deaths this winter. A bad flu year, in comparison, brings about 50,000 deaths.

Being unvaccinated is still a major risk factor for dying from COVID. In August 2022 unvaccinated people died at six times the rate of those who got at least the primary series of the vaccine, according to the CDC. And unvaccinated people age 50 and older were 12 times more likely to die than vaccinated and double-boosted peers.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Luckily, I think we're to a point now where it actually has made it to a point of being an individual risk assessment situation and has finally become more like the flu.

Early on, a good externalities argument could be made for restrictions/mandates/etc...

But I think that the current level of vaccination coverage combined with prior community has done enough to create enough immunity in the population that we don't have to worry about overrunning hospitals...in addition to the more mild variants in circulation which has also helped matters.

I think we are to the place where one can confidently say to an unvaccinated person "it's on you, dude...do what you want"



But something that does concern me is that amid the political bickering and other societal arguments going on, conversations about proper oversight of labs and wet markets have fallen by the wayside. ...and if the focus on prevention of new viruses emerging isn't what it should be, we could be doomed to repeat that whole thing again some day. And the next one could be worse.

 

[NxNW]

if the focus on prevention of new viruses emerging isn't what it should be, we could be doomed to repeat that whole thing again some day. And the next one could be worse.

We can't expect Big Meteor™ to do all the work.

 

[Tuur]

LINK

Today in the U.S., about 335 people will die from COVID—a disease for which there are highly effective vaccines, treatments and precautions. Who is still dying, and why?

Older people were always especially vulnerable and now make up a higher proportion of COVID fatalities than ever before in the pandemic. While the total number of COVID deaths has fallen, the burden of mortality is shifting even more to people older than age 64. And deaths in nursing homes are ticking back up, even as COVID remains one of the top causes of death for all ages. COVID deaths among people age 65 and older more than doubled between April and July this year, rising by 125 percent, according to a recent analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation. This trend increased with age: more than a quarter of all COVID fatalities were among those age 85 and older throughout the pandemic, but that share has risen to at least 38 percent since May.

The pandemic first hit urban areas harder, but mortality rose dramatically in rural areas by the summer of 2020—a pattern that has held. The gap is currently narrowing, but people living in rural areas are still dying at significantly higher rates. Rural death rates fell from 92.2 percent higher than urban rates at the end of September to 38.9 percent higher in mid-October.

While differences in age-adjusted death rates based on race have recently become smaller, experts predict inequities will likely skyrocket again during surges [such as an impending winter surge].

More than 200,000 people have already died because of COVID in the U.S. in 2022, and President Joe Biden’s administration is bracing for 30,000 to 70,000 more deaths this winter. A bad flu year, in comparison, brings about 50,000 deaths.

Being unvaccinated is still a major risk factor for dying from COVID. In August 2022 unvaccinated people died at six times the rate of those who got at least the primary series of the vaccine, according to the CDC. And unvaccinated people age 50 and older were 12 times more likely to die than vaccinated and double-boosted peers.

This vaccinated person doesn't trust Scientific American. It goes back to the 1970s, then with two episodes where I was subscribed, then concluded it wasn't worth the subscription..Nothing more than observation tells me that locally, most of the COVID-19 deaths were at the start of the pandemic, and in this rural area there hasn't been one in...okay, the last was in September, a grand total of one death for the month. So we're not exactly dropping like flies.

That's why I've been getting my info from the state health department. By their data, deaths peaked in this state in January, 2021, fell, rose again and peaked lower in September, 2021, then peaked even lower in January, 2022. The last peak was in August, 2022, far lower than the other peaks. By that pattern, there's likely to be far less deaths in the next peak. This is not even worth calling a back-of-the-envelope calculation, but if the same pattern holds, the next peak should be even less than the August peak.

As with all predictions, we will see. But something that shouldn't be overlooked is those with confirmed prior cases of COVID-19 should have some immunity. Of course, talk to your doctor and if he or she recommends a booster, follow their recommendation. All I'm thinking is that prior exposure might cut deaths.

 

[Larniavc]

All I'm thinking is that prior exposure might cut deaths.

Yeah, but prior exposure also causes death.

 

[Tuur]

Yeah, but prior exposure also causes death.

I think you mean "caused." The question is whether immunity give enough protection to limit deaths due to new mutations.

 

[rambot]

Here in Canada, especially Albert's...we are getting slammed by flus colds and covid.

It's pretty intense actually.

Some schools were over 20% absentee...most she over 10.

 

[Tuur]

Here in Canada, especially Albert's...we are getting slammed by flus colds and covid.

It's pretty intense actually.

Some schools were over 20% absentee...most she over 10.

Heavy flu activity in the southern US. Colds went through last month. One family member had cold and strep throat.

 

[Vanellus]

One thing this has taught me: dying from flu is not ok. So, saying Covid is like the flu (which it isn't - see above) doesn't mean Covid is not a serious health issue now.

 

[Tuur]

One thing this has taught me: dying from flu is not ok. So, saying Covid is like the flu (which it isn't - see above) doesn't mean Covid is not a serious health issue now.

Quibble: Saying COVID-19 is like the flu is not saying COVID-19 can't be a serious health risk. The nitty-gritty is the variant and number of cases locally. Note that for influenza, some types are more deadly than others. And yes, I've known someone who died of influenza, and he was younger and healthier than me.

 

[Ana the Ist]

Luckily, I think we're to a point now where it actually has made it to a point of being an individual risk assessment situation and has finally become more like the flu.

Early on, a good externalities argument could be made for restrictions/mandates/etc...

But I think that the current level of vaccination coverage combined with prior community has done enough to create enough immunity in the population that we don't have to worry about overrunning hospitals...in addition to the more mild variants in circulation which has also helped matters.

I think we are to the place where one can confidently say to an unvaccinated person "it's on you, dude...do what you want"

This is always what we should have said to the unvaxxed person (some of us did).

The vaccine doesn't prevent covid spread. It makes no difference....or at least, isn't a guarantee.

But something that does concern me is that amid the political bickering and other societal arguments going on, conversations about proper oversight of labs and wet markets have fallen by the wayside. ...and if the focus on prevention of new viruses emerging isn't what it should be, we could be doomed to repeat that whole thing again some day. And the next one could be worse.

What do you think it would take to get to the bottom of how it began?


I'm 99% sure, but it doesn't matter.

 

[rambot]

Luckily, I think we're to a point now where it actually has made it to a point of being an individual risk assessment situation and has finally become more like the flu.

Early on, a good externalities argument could be made for restrictions/mandates/etc...

But I think that the current level of vaccination coverage combined with prior community has done enough to create enough immunity in the population that we don't have to worry about overrunning hospitals...in addition to the more mild variants in circulation which has also helped matters.

I think we are to the place where one can confidently say to an unvaccinated person "it's on you, dude...do what you want"



But something that does concern me is that amid the political bickering and other societal arguments going on, conversations about proper oversight of labs and wet markets have fallen by the wayside. ...and if the focus on prevention of new viruses emerging isn't what it should be, we could be doomed to repeat that whole thing again some day. And the next one could be worse.

Our hospitals in Alberta are getting overrun. But that is mostly because our flu season, compounded with an INTENSE RSV season and still COVID floating about, our school district last week had almost 20% absense (our school has flattenned back out. WHEW!) But we're having quite a lot of KIDS in the hospital this time around; esp. for the RSV issues; less so with COVID.

 

[hedrick]

This vaccinated person doesn't trust Scientific American. It goes back to the 1970s, then with two episodes where I was subscribed, then concluded it wasn't worth the subscription..Nothing more than observation tells me that locally, most of the COVID-19 deaths were at the start of the pandemic, and in this rural area there hasn't been one in...okay, the last was in September, a grand total of one death for the month. So we're not exactly dropping like flies.

That's why I've been getting my info from the state health department. By their data, deaths peaked in this state in January, 2021, fell, rose again and peaked lower in September, 2021, then peaked even lower in January, 2022. The last peak was in August, 2022, far lower than the other peaks. By that pattern, there's likely to be far less deaths in the next peak. This is not even worth calling a back-of-the-envelope calculation, but if the same pattern holds, the next peak should be even less than the August peak.

As with all predictions, we will see. But something that shouldn't be overlooked is those with confirmed prior cases of COVID-19 should have some immunity. Of course, talk to your doctor and if he or she recommends a booster, follow their recommendation. All I'm thinking is that prior exposure might cut deaths.

The Times aggregates state numbers, like a few other sites. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html. They show several peaks of deaths, about equal. But it looks like the largest was early 2021, as you say. Covidactnow shows the same. However no serious peaks since the Jan 2022 spike. They also track the difference between vaccinated and un. (Only some areas report this.) Currently (the most recent data is from Sept) it’s 6/1 in deaths and 3/1 in cases. The ratios have varied over time, but there has always been a lower probability of getting it if you’re vaccinated. So there would be at least a modest effect on spreading it.

Yes, having had it also gives some immunity. From what I’ve read, similar to vaccination, including waning over time.

Cases and hospitalization is going up now, which I expected would happen during the vacation period. The real question is whether it will be a modest increase or a big spike in January as in the last two years. January 2022 probably resulted from Omicron. While there are plenty of new Omicron subvariants, there’s hope that none of them will have the same effect as the initial appearance of Omicron. So maybe we get lucky this January.

 

[hedrick]

What do you think it would take to get to the bottom of how it began?


I'm 99% sure, but it doesn't matter.

There’s been continuing investigation. From them it appears that there’s a lot better data than I had thought. It’s now virtually certain that it was from the wet market. Since the Chinese are trying to avoid taking responsibility, I doubt much will be done to prevent similar episodes in the future. New studies find more evidence of Covid’s origin from Wuhan’s ‘wet market’

 

[ThatRobGuy]

This is always what we should have said to the unvaxxed person (some of us did).

The vaccine doesn't prevent covid spread. It makes no difference....or at least, isn't a guarantee.

Early on, it did do a fairly good job of tamping down the spread against the original strain and alpha...once it got to Delta & Beyond, it functioned more like a flu shot where it was mainly a tool of symptom/severity reduction.

I'd argue that there was a good externalities argument that could've been made for criticizing people who didn't get the jab earlier on. Even ignoring spread aspect, one could say it's pretty selfish for a person to do something that could unnecessarily push hospitals to capacity.

What do you think it would take to get to the bottom of how it began?


I'm 99% sure, but it doesn't matter.

Transparency from the CCP...but good luck with that.

 

[Ana the Ist]

There’s been continuing investigation. From them it appears that there’s a lot better data than I had thought. It’s now virtually certain that it was from the wet market. Since the Chinese are trying to avoid taking responsibility, I doubt much will be done to prevent similar episodes in the future. New studies find more evidence of Covid’s origin from Wuhan’s ‘wet market’

Whenever I read these stories about "new evidence" for the wet market theory....they end up talking about a hypothetical scenario they don't actually have evidence of.

Is this going to be a different story?

 

[Ana the Ist]

Early on, it did do a fairly good job of tamping down the spread against the original strain and alpha...once it got to Delta & Beyond, it functioned more like a flu shot where it was mainly a tool of symptom/severity reduction.

I'd argue that there was a good externalities argument that could've been made for criticizing people who didn't get the jab earlier on. Even ignoring spread aspect, one could say it's pretty selfish for a person to do something that could unnecessarily push hospitals to capacity.

You know, I can understand why someone might see me as a little selfish and not approve of my choice. I can understand and sympathize.

When those same people demand my ability to choose be taken from me....and they act as if I'm the stupid one....well...

My sympathy disappears and I suddenly don't think they deserve to have any say at all.

Transparency from the CCP...but good luck with that.

Oh I don't think we need that much. I promise there's plenty of folks who know. I bet with a handful of warrants, some carefully chosen teams, maybe 4 20 men teams, and about a week I could suss out the majority of the story.

You see when scientists reach the top of a small field....like viral epidemiology or whatever...and they're studying virus at the genetic level and manipulating it too...it's a relatively small well known community when we look at the top of that field.


They're associates, they respect each other, but they're essentially competitors. They only work so hard for the scientific acclaim, the reputation of one so distinguished. They work so hard for this because it ensures their place in a long chain of scientific history. Essentially....narcissistic nerds.

So when 4 of the top 20 or so of these people start emailing each other after looking at the genetics of the virus.....and they disagree.....the expected outcome is that they spend months or years gathering data, testing hypothesis, performing experiments....to prove themselves right and receive the acclaim.


What you don't expect to happen is to hear one say "let's talk about it in private" and 3 days later they all agree to sing the same story.


That's not a conspiracy theory....that's an actual conspiracy. Truth be told, blame for what I imagine is accidental lies in many places but these 4 or 5 could probably tell you if it came from the lab. One was so certain that he said the probability of the lab leak theory was 99% and wet market was 1%. The idea that those exact proteins could form in that exact configuration and this virus would just happen to have a receptor capable of binding that extremely unlikely combination....and then, beyond all chance, combine....in nature....

It was so unlikely that he didn't think it was worth even considering. He said he would only give it 1% because he knows it's possible he's wrong.


3 days later....same guy is telling the opposite story....and he's 100% sure now.

 

[hedrick]

Whenever I read these stories about "new evidence" for the wet market theory....they end up talking about a hypothetical scenario they don't actually have evidence of.

Is this going to be a different story?

One looks at the locations of early cases, the other at tests of swabs taken from surfaces in the market.

 

[prodromos]

One looks at the locations of early cases, the other at tests of swabs taken from surfaces in the market.

Except that if it leaked from the lab, and then the first place the infected person went was the local wet markets, coming into contact with many people, testing would only prove what they wanted it to prove.

 

[grasping the after wind]

LINK

Today in the U.S., about 335 people will die from COVID—a disease for which there are highly effective vaccines, treatments and precautions. Who is still dying, and why?

Older people were always especially vulnerable and now make up a higher proportion of COVID fatalities than ever before in the pandemic. While the total number of COVID deaths has fallen, the burden of mortality is shifting even more to people older than age 64. And deaths in nursing homes are ticking back up, even as COVID remains one of the top causes of death for all ages. COVID deaths among people age 65 and older more than doubled between April and July this year, rising by 125 percent, according to a recent analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation. This trend increased with age: more than a quarter of all COVID fatalities were among those age 85 and older throughout the pandemic, but that share has risen to at least 38 percent since May.

The pandemic first hit urban areas harder, but mortality rose dramatically in rural areas by the summer of 2020—a pattern that has held. The gap is currently narrowing, but people living in rural areas are still dying at significantly higher rates. Rural death rates fell from 92.2 percent higher than urban rates at the end of September to 38.9 percent higher in mid-October.

While differences in age-adjusted death rates based on race have recently become smaller, experts predict inequities will likely skyrocket again during surges [such as an impending winter surge].

More than 200,000 people have already died because of COVID in the U.S. in 2022, and President Joe Biden’s administration is bracing for 30,000 to 70,000 more deaths this winter. A bad flu year, in comparison, brings about 50,000 deaths.

Being unvaccinated is still a major risk factor for dying from COVID. In August 2022 unvaccinated people died at six times the rate of those who got at least the primary series of the vaccine, according to the CDC. And unvaccinated people age 50 and older were 12 times more likely to die than vaccinated and double-boosted peers.

Well, it looks as if the flu is now just about as deadly as Covid. Seeing as the mean of 30,000 to 70,000 is 50,000. the big difference being that the flue is much more dangerous to children while children have almost no risk of death from Covid. Perhaps we should now focus on requiring flu vaccines for children and for government workers?