When Should We End The Sale of Gas Vehicles, and coal power plants?

mark46

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When Should We End The Sale of Gas Vehicles, and coal power plants? Should w stop using fossil oil for home heating?
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Now that the Democrats are in control, let's consider climate control issues.

FIRST STEPS
Stop spending money on new oil pipelines. DONE
Stop drilling for oil on public lands. DONE
Mandate electric vehicles for the government IN PROCESS
========================
STOP THE SALE OF GASOLINE CARS
Norway has set the date of 2025. The crazy Brits have set the date at 2030. Dems will introduce a bill through the Reconciliation process to implement a huge move from gas to domestically produced electric vehicles.

NO MORE COAL PLANTS
The crazy Brits often go weeks with no power from coal plants. The last 3 coal plants will come offline by 2025.

NO MORE FOSSIL FUEL FOR RESIDENTIAL HEATING
The crazy Brits will stop using fossil fuel for residential heating by 2023.

BTW
New solar plants and new wind plants produce electricity at less cost than fossil fuels.
 
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timothyu

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When there is a cheap alternative that can go 400 miles between replenishment and if electric, then batteries can be quickly swapped out rather than spending hours on a recharge out in who knows where.
 
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mark46

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When there is a cheap alternative that can go 400 miles between replenishment and if electric, then batteries can be quickly swapped out rather than spending hours on a recharge out in who knows where.


First, there need no fossil fuel vehicles in cities. The Democratic bill will include lots of money for charging stations and battery improvement. BTW, how do you think that this works in Norway? BTW, you can have your gasoline vehicle for as long as you are willing to play the ever increasing gasoline taxes.
 
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Aussie Pete

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When Should We End The Sale of Gas Vehicles, and coal power plants? Should w stop using fossil oil for home heating?
===================
Now that the Democrats are in control, let's consider climate control issues.

STOP THE SALE OF GASOLINE CARS
Norway has set the date of 2025. The crazy Brits have set the date at 2030.

NO MORE COAL PLANTS
The crazy Brits often go weeks with no power from coal plants. The last 3 coal plants will come offline by 2025.

NO MORE FOSSIL FUEL FOR RESIDENTIAL HEATING
The crazy Brits will stop using fossil fuel for residential heating by 2023.

BTW
New solar plants and new wind plants produce electricity at less cost than fossil fuels.
How about when EV's are as cheap and have a similar range to ICE vehicles.

The crazy Brits will have to find a way to recycle huge amounts of lithium batteries. I'm happy. I have shares in a company that supplies battery components. They are 100 times what I paid for them. There are costs and negatives as well as benefits. I hope that the rush to wind and solar does not create more problems. Australia is finding out that it is not as easy as it looks.
 
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mark46

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How about when EV's are as cheap and have a similar range to ICE vehicles.

The crazy Brits will have to find a way to recycle huge amounts of lithium batteries. I'm happy. I have shares in a company that supplies battery components. They are 100 times what I paid for them. There are costs and negatives as well as benefits. I hope that the rush to wind and solar does not create more problems. Australia is finding out that it is not as easy as it looks.

Not easy, but essential

Also, it is not only the UK. I could check, But I think that all the Scandinavian countries have similar plans. This article from a couple of years ago might help.
There will few gasoline cars being sold in Europe by 2030.
==========
I suspect that Kerry will mean with the Europeans, but I expect that our goal would be around 2035; we are a bit late to the game.
 
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Aussie Pete

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First, there need no fossil fuel vehicles in cities. The Democratic bill will include lots of money for charging stations and battery improvement. BTW, how do you think that this works in Norway? BTW, you can have your gasoline vehicle for as long as you are willing to play the ever increasing gasoline taxes.
How long before EV's are taxed, probably on distance travelled? Transport infrastructure has to be paid for. Also, the ICE imposts will hit the people who can least afford it the most. I've done the sums. Even with Australia's horribly expensive fuel, EV's are not cost competitive for most people. Sure, spend $30,000 on a solar/battery system and recharge for free. Sure, pay $30,000 extra for a budget EV. That's $60,000 before you get in the vehicle. Then you have to replace the batteries sometime. For most people, the costs do not make financial sense.
 
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Aussie Pete

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Not easy, but essential

Also, it is not only the UK. I could check, But I think that all the Scandinavian countries have similar plans/
Plans are great if they are done properly. From my 50 years experience in this country, I would say there is no hope of that.
 
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timothyu

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The more likely scenario is one put forth by the WEF type folks where people (like now) will be expected to stay home having no need for a vehicle, relying upon delivery to their restricted life by electric transport or drone. They look at things from a different angle. Free speech a problem, get rid of the unofficial side. Sickness a problem? Eugenics. Weed out the unhealthy. This is the 21st century. It is already happening. Why think old school, expecting life will go on as it was with modest change?.
 
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Hans Blaster

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NO MORE COAL PLANTS
The crazy Brits often go weeks with no power from coal plants. The last 3 coal plants will come offline by 2025.

The newest coal plant in the US is 10 years old. That will probably be the last ever built. Electricity generation from coal is down by ~50% since the peak in the early years of the century (about 15-20 years ago). Plants keep being decommissioned.
 
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Making the switch to all electric vehicles is a good idea...however, that needs to be balanced with feasibility in terms of the timeline.

Comparing the US to Britain or Norway would be shortsighted (like with other aspects of society where people insist on making country-to-country comparisons)

First off, simple landmass alone give the Brits a huge advantage to being able to cut over to electric.

upload_2021-1-27_19-48-49.png


upload_2021-1-27_19-49-7.png


The further government vehicles need to travel in order to provide the service they're looking to provide, the less the current iteration of electric vehicles are suited for the job.

That's not to say the vehicles won't improve, they certainly will, like with other things...but to make much smaller countries' timelines the "measuring stick" for when we should be fully switched over is going to paint us into a corner.


The other aspect of this is that fossil fuel vehicles and heating are only 2 aspects of what's driving climate change...and the US is just one player among many. Unless there's a way to force compliance among China, India, and Russia...we could cut all CO2 emissions, and would just be a drop in the bucket.

Unless people are willing to make some major changes to other aspects of their life (IE: their diets), cutting fossil fuels is just a small part of the problem.

Animal agriculture (specifically beef and pork) is the #2 contributor to emissions, and the #1 causes of deforestation, wasteful land usage, and both water usage as well as water contamination.

In a nutshell, unless people are (in addition to buying an expensive electric vehicle installing solar panels and paying additional taxes to install wind turbines) willing to put international pressure on multiple nations and radically change their diets to mostly plant based, a Tesla in the driveway and some solar panels in the backyard is little more than a virtue signal that people with money can do to act like they "care", while not actually having to make any real sacrifices.
 
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Zergling Rush

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How about when EV's are as cheap and have a similar range to ICE vehicles.

The crazy Brits will have to find a way to recycle huge amounts of lithium batteries. I'm happy. I have shares in a company that supplies battery components. They are 100 times what I paid for them.

I've not heard of many shares that have gone up that far, but hey, if you made a play and it paid off, good on you! However, why are you worried about costs then? Even if you put a lousy $2k into those shares, you should be $200k in the black by now.

There are costs and negatives as well as benefits. I hope that the rush to wind and solar does not create more problems. Australia is finding out that it is not as easy as it looks.

Meanwhile Sydney is rolling over their entire bus fleet of 8,000 to full electric by 2030. It's certainly do-able for lots of transport.
 
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Zergling Rush

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People need to understand that stopping the sale of ICE vehicles doesn't mean stopping them from being driven. On top of that, the average age of national car fleets in most first world countries is around ten years, and it's quite common to see even 15 year old cars being driven daily.

Thus, someone who can't afford to switch right now realistically has until 2040-2045 (in other words, more than 20 years) to think about finally getting an electric car, by which time they'll be cheap and charging infrastructure will be universal.
 
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nonaeroterraqueous

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by which time they'll be cheap and charging infrastructure will be universal.
Not universal enough. My favorite campsite is out of the range of an electric car, and I don't foresee anyone building a charging station out in the middle of nowhere (I also don't want to ride a one-way trip in the hope that there might be a working charging station).
 
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timothyu

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People need to understand that stopping the sale of ICE vehicles doesn't mean stopping them from being driven. On top of that, the average age of national car fleets in most first world countries is around ten years, and it's quite common to see even 15 year old cars being driven daily.
Certainly until the government sets up vehicle checks for pollution banning those that put out more than 0% emissions. A lot of good vehicles, especially out in the country where tractors belch smoke, have gone to scrap as a result already. It's a con games revolving around consumerism.
 
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Vylo

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Coal plants is easy, they are already dying out. Natural gas and wind have devastated them. This leads to a problem with the other section though:

The reason natural gas is so plentiful is in large part due to fracking for oil used in cars, and diesel used in heavy machinery. As we back off that consumption, less natural gas will be available. That demand for power will have to be answered, and wind is not up to that, solar definitely isn't up to that. It isn't that we don't have the land available, it is that we likely don't have the materials required. The only renewablish source for that much power is fission. We would need to construct a lot of reactors pretty quickly to do this, and disposing of the waste, both from the rods and from extracting the uranium is an issue. We desperately need a new source of energy (think something akin to fusion), that can produce massive power in compact form. The energy demand vs materials we need for them is starting to reach the point where a Dyson sphere is looking palatable.
 
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timothyu

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We desperately need a new source of energy (think something akin to fusion), that can produce massive power in compact form.
Tesla already found it. The problem was, and more so today was there was no way to charge the masses for unmeasurable usage. Perhaps a yearly fee might work but who would profit would create the new roadblock
 
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Aussie Pete

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I've not heard of many shares that have gone up that far, but hey, if you made a play and it paid off, good on you! However, why are you worried about costs then? Even if you put a lousy $2k into those shares, you should be $200k in the black by now.



Meanwhile Sydney is rolling over their entire bus fleet of 8,000 to full electric by 2030. It's certainly do-able for lots of transport.
At time it was pure speculation. I bought what seemed like a lot of shares. They were dirt cheap at the time. Hindsight is wonderful. My shares have done well, but I've also had substantial expenses that the shares have funded. I'll be sitting on these shares for a few years, I reckon. No telling where they'll finish up.
 
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Aussie Pete

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I've not heard of many shares that have gone up that far, but hey, if you made a play and it paid off, good on you! However, why are you worried about costs then? Even if you put a lousy $2k into those shares, you should be $200k in the black by now.



Meanwhile Sydney is rolling over their entire bus fleet of 8,000 to full electric by 2030. It's certainly do-able for lots of transport.
Buses are ideal. Relatively low mileage a day, constant stopping and starting for regeneration, little wear and tear on brakes and full torque at zero revs. Like wise garbage trucks. It's a no brainer. I understand that Volvo have supplied an battery powered truck. Suburban runs are ideal. Melbourne to Sydney heavy haulage not so much.
 
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