What quality of evidence for extraterrestrials?

Trakk

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IAA SETI Permanent Committee: Rio Scale is a proposed numerical scaling of how strong a claim of extraterrestrial-intelligence evidence is: 10 Extraordinary, 9 Outstanding, 8 Far-reaching, 7 High, 6 Noteworthy, 5 Intermediate, 4 Moderate, 3 Minor, 2 Low, 1 Insignificant, 0 None.

That scale uses the formula Q * d, where Q = Q1 + Q2 + Q3
Q1 = nature of phenomenon (higher: more specific to us)
Q2 = type of observation of it (higher: more persistent and/or professional)
Q3 = apparent distance of it (higher: closer to us)
d = credibility of it (higher: more credible)
IAA SETI Permanent Committee: Rio Scale Calculator -- plug in various scenarios and see what you get. Warning: its numbers are rounded down.

The Rio Scale applied to Fictional SETI Detections - covering movies "Contact" 1997, "The Arrival" 1996, "Independence Day" 1996, "Sphere" 1998, "2001: A Space Odyssey" 1968, and "Stargate" 1984 and books "The Listeners" James E. Gunn 1972, "The Sparrow" Mary D. Russell 1997, and "The Coming" Joe Haldeman 2001.

For instance: 2001:ASA has, for the black slab on the Moon, Q1 = 1, Q2 = 4, Q3 = 4, d = 2/3, Rio value = 6. When it activates, Q1 goes up to 5 and the Rio value to 9.

It includes some non-fictional ones: the Mars Face and the EQ Peg hoax of 1998. The Mars Face initially had Q1 = 1 (artifact with unknown purpose), Q2 = 4 (persistent, non-SETI/SETA), Q3 = 4 (in the Solar System), d = 1/6 (very uncertain), giving Rio-scale value 1. Later observations revealed that it was not much of a face, giving d = 0, and thus a scale value of 0.

Mars's alleged canals and its moon Phobos's alleged hollowness had also followed that trajectory.

The 1977 WOW signal turns out to have a Rio value of 1 to 2 (Improving the Rio Scale: what led to the present version. WOW had Q1 = 3 - 4 (beacon), Q2 = 3 (transient SETI), Q3 = 1 - 3 (outside the Solar System), d = 1 (very uncertain)). So even if it was an ET broadcast, it would not tell us much.

Now for various bits of purported evidence of ET's in the Solar System (Q3 = 4). I will treat them as having the highest reliability (d = 2/3) for comparison purposes, even though their reliability is often much lower, even zero in some cases.
  • Q1 = 1, Q2 = 4, RS = 6 -- Mars's canals, the Mars face, Mars's moon Phobos's hollowness
  • Q1 = 1 - 2, Q2 = 1, RS = 4 - 5 -- Ancient-astronaut artifacts
  • Q1 = 6, Q2 = 1, RS = 7 -- Ancient-astronaut contacts
  • Q1 = 1 - 2, Q2 = 4, RS = 6 - 7 -- UFO observations
  • Q1 = 6, Q2 = 2, RS = 8 -- UFO experiencing: one-off
  • Q1 = 6, Q2 = 4, RS = 9 -- UFO experiencing: repeated
UFO experiencing here includes both abductions and friendly contacts (contactee cases). It should be UFO contactees who give us the best evidence of all, but their accounts all have numerous problems, like lack of additional substantiation, gross errors that they or their alleged ET contacts should not have made, and sometimes evidence of outright fraudulence. So their accounts should have d = 0 unless there is good reason to think otherwise.
 

freezerman2000

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I think it is possible that intelligent life is out there some where,..what is the line between intelligence and non intelligence?What would et life be based on?Life does not necessarily have to be carbon based.
 
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Radrook

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The vast distances would seem to indicate that the creator might deem it wise to keep his material intelligent creatures separated from one another. Why? I don't claim to know but judging from how irrationally humans react to slight differences among races and how they have a knack for exploiting animals and sending them into or near the brink of extinction, perhaps it's for the best.
 
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WretchedGoat

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I believe life is quite commonplace in the Universe. I believe intelligent life is also somewhat common. I've never seen a "smoking gun" piece of evidence to suggest that intelligent life outside the Earth exists, but by the same token I haven't seen evidence to eliminate the possibility either.

I do NOT believe that ETs (if they do indeed exist) are manifestations of fallen angels or some tool of the Devil to deceive mankind. Satan doesn't need to deceive us because we do a fine enough job of that on our own with all the bickering and in-fighting we do about religion.

What I've just stated here is what I mean to say on this specific topic. There is nothing to be inferred about my other beliefs based on what I have written, so if you wish to bring up a point for debate, please ask your question after thoroughly reading and comprehending what I have written and we can proceed thusly.
 
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FireDragon76

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A few years ago I read a book about the need to develop a military plan to deal with the invasion of earth by aliens. Despite the cheesy title, there is a lot of consideration of the motivations and methods of extraterrestrial civilizations in trying to conquer a planet. There's also the interesting concept of ranking various fictional sci-fi civilizations by the amount of total power they can harness (eg, the Star Wars Galactic Empire harnesses more power than the Star Trek Federation).

 
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Radrook

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While I believe it's possible that God might have put non-intelligent life on other planets, I believe that earth is the only planet where He put intelligent life, and that's debatable.
Why only here?
 
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Blackmarch

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A few years ago I read a book about the need to develop a military plan to deal with the invasion of earth by aliens. Despite the cheesy title, there is a lot of consideration of the motivations and methods of extraterrestrial civilizations in trying to conquer a planet. There's also the interesting concept of ranking various fictional sci-fi civilizations by the amount of total power they can harness (eg, the Star Wars Galactic Empire harnesses more power than the Star Trek Federation).

Karnachev scale. The federation rates just under a 1 and the starwars imperium falls somehwere nearvthe halfway point between 1 and 2.
 
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Blackmarch

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I have not seen any convincing evidence. But then I would not expect any race that could travel interstellar distances to be seen by us unless they wanted to be seen.

I see no reason such would want to contact us at this point.
If they are only bound to the physics that we understand at this time, we would likely see some sort of evidence to their existance, at least if they were close enough to potentially encounter us.

Theres a great channel that covers this sort of stuff on youtube. Search for "Isaac arthur, fermi paradox"
 
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