- Jan 4, 2022
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What's missing in this discussion is that Russia holds all the cards because their military and Allies are crushing the Ukrainians with only a Special Military Operation. They are using only 10-12% of their military personnel in this operation and are able to rotate them in and out for refitting and R&R. My crystal ball is in the repair shop (after it predicted a sane and civilized discussion about the spiritual aspects of this terrible war when posting the topic) but here is something like where I see this ending up.
Russia finishes up the liberation/conquest of Donetsk and then turns it attention to securing Odessa in order to create a land bridge to Transnistria region. They will also, probably, secure Kharkiv and surrounding environs. At that point, they will declare a unilateral ceasefire, proclaim an annexation of these territories and begin a partial mobilization of its forces. They then warn the US/NATO/EU (and its Ukrainian puppets) that any attack on the liberated/captured territory will result in a declaration of War and march on Kiev.
This all happens as the winter draws closer and closer and more and more Governments fall or experience great societal frustration and upheaval. The West is then forced into a decision between accepting these events (Russian war gains) as a fait accompli or escalating into a direct confrontation with a nuclear power against the backdrop of Chinese exploitation of the situation.
All of this never had to happen if only the Ukrainians had ignored Boris Johnson, Jake Sullivan and Joe Biden back in March when they were talking with the Russians in Istanbul. If (when) the Russians go on to take Kiev, then I'm sure they would follow the same methodology to tame the Ukrainians that they deployed with Chechyna.
After all is said and done, the West comes out of this conflict badly beaten and forever has lost its global hegemony. We get a new Ecumenical Patriarch (who is not AB Elvis) that seeks rapprochement with Moscow and the West finally stops exporting death and misery in the name of Democracy. One can only pray.
Russia finishes up the liberation/conquest of Donetsk and then turns it attention to securing Odessa in order to create a land bridge to Transnistria region. They will also, probably, secure Kharkiv and surrounding environs. At that point, they will declare a unilateral ceasefire, proclaim an annexation of these territories and begin a partial mobilization of its forces. They then warn the US/NATO/EU (and its Ukrainian puppets) that any attack on the liberated/captured territory will result in a declaration of War and march on Kiev.
This all happens as the winter draws closer and closer and more and more Governments fall or experience great societal frustration and upheaval. The West is then forced into a decision between accepting these events (Russian war gains) as a fait accompli or escalating into a direct confrontation with a nuclear power against the backdrop of Chinese exploitation of the situation.
All of this never had to happen if only the Ukrainians had ignored Boris Johnson, Jake Sullivan and Joe Biden back in March when they were talking with the Russians in Istanbul. If (when) the Russians go on to take Kiev, then I'm sure they would follow the same methodology to tame the Ukrainians that they deployed with Chechyna.
After all is said and done, the West comes out of this conflict badly beaten and forever has lost its global hegemony. We get a new Ecumenical Patriarch (who is not AB Elvis) that seeks rapprochement with Moscow and the West finally stops exporting death and misery in the name of Democracy. One can only pray.
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