The trouble is it did happen. We saw it withour own eyes on television.
Your second paragraph is just supposition. The ex-President made no effort to stop the violent insurrection, and the attackers did commit murder as well as destroying property and urinating and defecating in the Capitol.
It wasn't "a couple of fools in horned helmets"; it was a very large crowd armed with various weapons such as flagpoles and bear spray to attack the Capitol, the members of Congress and their staffs, and the police.
One case of many: Stewart Rhodes, the founder of the right-wing group the Oath Keepers, was arrested by the FBI on Thursday in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack. He is facing a seditious conspiracy indictment along with 10 others.
Your saying that "it was never going to amount to more than a very localized riot, and not really even that disruptive of a riot as far as those go" is sheer speculation. It was one of the worst attacks on our government and Democracy in our entire history.