W.H.O. Officials Report Findings from China - Coronavirus

wing2000

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"The WHO has sent a team of international experts to China to investigate the situation, including Clifford Lane, Clinical Director at the US National Institutes of Health."

"Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China. These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize transmission chains in humans. Fundamental to these measures is extremely proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these measures."

Noting the U.S. is still at square one -- testing to detect cases.....

Good summary here:
The WHO sent 25 international experts to China and here are their main findings after 9 days : China_Flu

Report
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
 

Halbhh

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"The WHO has sent a team of international experts to China to investigate the situation, including Clifford Lane, Clinical Director at the US National Institutes of Health."

"Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China. These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize transmission chains in humans. Fundamental to these measures is extremely proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these measures."

Noting the U.S. is still at square one -- testing to detect cases.....

Good summary here:
The WHO sent 25 international experts to China and here are their main findings after 9 days : China_Flu

Report
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
I heard I think on the radio the other night that since it looks like the virus has been spreading in the U.S. for about 6 weeks, then a reasonable guesstimate of current infections, most of which would be younger people and relatively mild, would be up to around 1,500 (that is at that time, already past, so now more). Since we aren't doing random testing nor even widespread testing of people that might plausibly be exposed even, then it stands to reason we could, or rather, it seems likely that we would, end up like Italy, as a reasonable projection -- meaning with enough spread to need to widely close schools, events, etc., pretty draconian, and totally unlike ordinary life we are used to even after floods and such. Make sense, or can you see any faults in the logic of that?
 
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I heard I think on the radio the other night that since it looks like the virus has been spreading in the U.S. for about 6 weeks, then a reasonable guesstimate of current infections, most of which would be younger people and relatively mild, would be up to around 1,500 (that is at that time, already past, so now more). Since we aren't doing random testing nor even widespread testing of people that might plausibly be exposed even, then it stands to reason we could, or rather, it seems likely that we would, end up like Italy, as a reasonable projection -- meaning with enough spread to need to widely close schools, events, etc., pretty draconian, and totally unlike ordinary life we are used to even after floods and such. Make sense, or can you see any faults in the logic of that?
And with a healthcare system that sees those with no or little health insurance reluctant to go to the doctor.
 
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wing2000

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I heard I think on the radio the other night that since it looks like the virus has been spreading in the U.S. for about 6 weeks, then a reasonable guesstimate of current infections, most of which would be younger people and relatively mild, would be up to around 1,500 (that is at that time, already past, so now more). Since we aren't doing random testing nor even widespread testing of people that might plausibly be exposed even, then it stands to reason we could, or rather, it seems likely that we would, end up like Italy, as a reasonable projection -- meaning with enough spread to need to widely close schools, events, etc., pretty draconian, and totally unlike ordinary life we are used to even after floods and such. Make sense, or can you see any faults in the logic of that?

I don't know if the U.S. is comparable with the Italy situation....but yes, it's logical to conclude the U.S. is clearly not in a position to event estimate how may Americans are already infected. When I go out in public today, I just assume the virus is present and try to exercise preventative measures.
 
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wing2000

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...from the report:

China can now produce 1.6 million test kits for the novel coronavirus per week. The test delivers a result on the same day. Across the country, anyone who goes to the doctor with a fever is screened for the virus: In Guangdong province, far from Wuhan, 320,000 people have been tested, and 0.14% of those were positive for the virus.


From The Atlantic article today:

Through interviews with dozens of public-health officials and a survey of local data from across the country, The Atlantic could only verify that 1,895 people have been tested for the coronavirus in the United States, about 10 percent of whom have tested positive. And while the American capacity to test for the coronavirus has ramped up significantly over the past few days, local officials can still test only several thousand people a day, not the tens or hundreds of thousands indicated by the White House’s promises.
 
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Halbhh

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I don't know if the U.S. is comparable with the Italy situation....but yes, it's logical to conclude the U.S. is clearly not in a position to event estimate how may Americans are already infected. When I go out in public today, I just assume the virus is present and try to exercise preventative measures.
Well, I just checked and Italy is only at 4,636 cases today, which isn't far at all for us to get to, like just a couple of weeks I'd guess, if the virus is widely spreading right now with something between 1,000 and 2,000 infections at the moment, most undetected. Now, we do have over 5 times the population, but that's only a few days of geometric increase.
 
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essentialsaltes

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1. In the face of a previously unknown virus, China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history.

I think what we'll find is that the authoritarian Chinese government was able to impose things like quarantining entire cities and restricting travel that were fairly successful at curtailing the spread, but that these measures will be unpalatable to the citizens of first world democracies. So they won't be implemented, or they won't be obeyed.

I find myself checking the JH coronavirus dashboard daily. For a long long long time, the yellow graph of cases outside China was so close to zero that you couldn't tell the difference. Now it has swooped up, and looks like the orange China graph did a month ago.

The question is whether it will level off the same way that China has. I doubt it. Some countries may do better and some worse, but out of the 200+ other countries, there's no chance that all of them will be as successful as China.
 
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RestoreTheJoy

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I heard I think on the radio the other night that since it looks like the virus has been spreading in the U.S. for about 6 weeks, then a reasonable guesstimate of current infections, most of which would be younger people and relatively mild, would be up to around 1,500 (that is at that time, already past, so now more). Since we aren't doing random testing nor even widespread testing of people that might plausibly be exposed even, then it stands to reason we could, or rather, it seems likely that we would, end up like Italy, as a reasonable projection -- meaning with enough spread to need to widely close schools, events, etc., pretty draconian, and totally unlike ordinary life we are used to even after floods and such. Make sense, or can you see any faults in the logic of that?
Gather people on one area to test them, so whoever is infected can transmit it to others? Bad idea.

Go house to house, demanding to test people, taking germs from the previous interactions with you? Equally bad idea.

If they are going to do anything, set up a place for everyone to go if concerned they may be infected. And change paper suits and gloves between each potential patient.
 
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Halbhh

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Gather people on one area to test them, so whoever is infected can transmit it to others? Bad idea.

Go house to house, demanding to test people, taking germs from the previous interactions with you? Equally bad idea.

If they are going to do anything, set up a place for everyone to go if concerned they may be infected. And change paper suits and gloves between each potential patient.

Yes, you are only describing basic precautions there, which of course health professionals usually would be expected to know. Make sense?

Maybe you are thinking of this kind of incompetence though:
"Officials at the Department of Health and Human Services sent more than a dozen workers to receive the first Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, without proper training for infection control or appropriate protective gear, according to a whistleblower complaint."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...-coronavirus-evacuees-hhs-whistleblower-says/


But, you should not assume regular health professionals would be incompetent in that way. The normal routine is to take precautions not to spread germs, and here they would know it's a dangerous virus, and take extra care, typically.
 
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tall73

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From The Atlantic article today:

Through interviews with dozens of public-health officials and a survey of local data from across the country, The Atlantic could only verify that 1,895 people have been tested for the coronavirus in the United States, about 10 percent of whom have tested positive. And while the American capacity to test for the coronavirus has ramped up significantly over the past few days, local officials can still test only several thousand people a day, not the tens or hundreds of thousands indicated by the White House’s promises.

I saw that article earlier, then saw this one, which really made plain how little idea we have of what is going on.

‘Press 3 for coronavirus:’ Even a woman at outbreak’s epicenter can’t cut through bureaucracy to get tested

This lady was a vendor who was in contact with the care center right in the middle of the outbreak in Washington. She has been trying since Monday to get someone to test her, without success.

If even people who have been exposed, and have symptoms cannot get tested when they are calling to insist, how likely are we to have any idea of actual numbers?
 
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wing2000

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I think what we'll find is that the authoritarian Chinese government was able to impose things like quarantining entire cities and restricting travel that were fairly successful at curtailing the spread, but that these measures will be unpalatable to the citizens of first world democracies. So they won't be implemented, or they won't be obeyed.

Agreed.
 
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RestoreTheJoy

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Yes, you are only describing basic precautions there, which of course health professionals usually would be expected to know. Make sense?

Maybe you are thinking of this kind of incompetence though:
"Officials at the Department of Health and Human Services sent more than a dozen workers to receive the first Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, without proper training for infection control or appropriate protective gear, according to a whistleblower complaint."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...-coronavirus-evacuees-hhs-whistleblower-says/


But, you should not assume regular health professionals would be incompetent in that way. The normal routine is to take precautions not to spread germs, and here they would know it's a dangerous virus, and take extra care, typically.
You'd be surprised. I've watched "regular health professionals" who should know better NOT change gloves between patients, even taking blood. I've had to demand it (politely and professionally) of these so-called "professionals".

Protect yourself. Disinfect everything yourself. Don't rely on the government to save you.
 
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essentialsaltes

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I think what we'll find is that the authoritarian Chinese government was able to impose things like quarantining entire cities and restricting travel that were fairly successful at curtailing the spread, but that these measures will be unpalatable to the citizens of first world democracies. So they won't be implemented, or they won't be obeyed.

Here's a test case. Italy quarantines the region of Lombardy.

The Italian government is to lockdown the northern region of Lombardy, as it battles to contain the spread of the coronavirus. A draft decree would extend the quarantined areas, so-called “red-zones”, ordering people not to enter or leave the region.

Italian authorities announced that a new decree containing draconian measures would be approved later on Saturday. It will include the power to impose fines on anyone caught entering or leaving Lombardy, the worst-affected region, until 3 April. People may be allowed in and out for serious reasons. The decree provides for banning all public events, closing cinemas, theatres, gyms, discos and pubs. Religious ceremonies such as funerals and weddings will also be banned.


Lombardy is a region of about 10 million people, including the city of Milan.
 
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wing2000

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Balancing personal liberties and the nation's economy with measures to effectively contain the virus is the tough challenge every government faces. We'll see over time if China's (and Italy's) approach has worked:

“I think they did an amazing job of knocking the virus down,” said Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “But I don’t know if it’s sustainable. What have the Chinese really accomplished? Have they really contained the virus? Or have they just suppressed it?”

China May Be Beating the Coronavirus, at a Painful Cost
 
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essentialsaltes

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The plan to lock down large swaths of the north was the first major attempt by a democracyduring the coronavirus crisis to radically halt the routines of daily life — an effort that will have significant impacts on civil liberties. But in the hours before and after the measure became law, people continued to stream out of the northern hubs of Milan and Venice on trains and planes for southern Italy or elsewhere in Europe.

As the day went on, it became clear that Italy was not trying to impose anything close to the absolute movement restrictions that have been enforced by China. Some analysts pointed out that even limited movement outside Italy’s north risked further spreading the virus, and for the first time a European Union leader — Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis — suggested Italy’s government needed to do more to interrupt the flow of its citizens across the bloc’s borders.

Meanwhile, airliners left Milan on Sunday for capitals in Europe, as well as Moscow and Doha. Trains continued to carry passengers to southern Italy.

The idea of not knowing how long this situation lasts made me decide to move,” said Alessia Martino, 22, who lives in Milan but was about to board a train for the southern region of Puglia, where her family lives. “We can still study from home, and the most important thing for us is to be with our parents.”


Given the rather loose implementation, this could conceivably backfire. The woman above seems to be leaving the region because of the lockdown. If the number of people traveling out of the reason actually increases, this could be worse than doing nothing.
 
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Given the rather loose implementation, this could conceivably backfire. The woman above seems to be leaving the region because of the lockdown. If the number of people traveling out of the reason actually increases, this could be worse than doing nothing.

Yes, how counterproductive!
 
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essentialsaltes

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Another interesting attempt.

Coronavirus: Israel to bring in 14-day quarantine for all arrivals

Everyone arriving in Israel will be required to self-quarantine for 14 days to prevent the spread of coronavirus, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says.

"All those coming to Israel from abroad will be placed in isolation," he said in a video address posted to Twitter.

Israeli Interior Minister Aryeh Deri said the measure would be effective immediately for all Israelis returning to the country.

It will apply to foreign citizens from Thursday, he added.

The move means that foreign arrivals will have to prove that they have adequate accommodation to be quarantined during their stay in the country.
 
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