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Vaccinated are 13 times more likely to get covid than those with naturally acquired immunity

Discussion in 'News & Current Events (Articles Required)' started by JustSomeBloke, Aug 27, 2021.

  1. KCfromNC

    KCfromNC Regular Member

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    I guess any rationalization is as good as the rest.
     
  2. rambot

    rambot Senior Member

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    Yes. And "adverse affects" of the vaccine are also very rare.

    While you used the word, you QUOTED (well, posted a pic and circled it). The word "rare" was used by a third party. I'm not too bothered by how you use the word rare because you have not been using it incorrectly; I'm more hoping the consistency that the CDC has used the word would be evident.

    It has not been "proven to be quite elastic" at all. To believe that the CDC would be "elastic" in their use of a word like that should show the reader that you are not understanding the full context.

    For example:
    Deaths LINKED to the COVID vaccine in the US are 3.
    Yes. That's 3.
    And to remind you: Those 3 blood clots were from the J&J vaccine (or was it Astrozeneca?) and you'll recall that the dispensation of those vaccines temporarily or altogether stopped. THAT'S how sensitive the threshold is.

    Deaths linked to people who have RECEIVED the vaccine: 6300 or so; but no analyzed link.

    6300, alone, sounds worrisome. But then you can remember that over 339 million DOSES have been put into arms suddenly that number should be laughably small (.00018%)

    So let's compare:
    339,000,000 ---> 6300
    That is CRAZY rare; like, that fits the definition of of "rare" because, of the possible out comes, it is a very infrequent outcome.

    At the same time, the COVID reticent indicated back in 2020 that "almost nobody under 60 EVER dies from this disease because it's just the flu".
    Quick and dirty math shows that ABOUT 175,000 people age 64 and under died.
    https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Sex-and-Age/9bhg-hcku

    I'm, sadly, too lazy to get the number of people under age 65 who have been infected with COVID but the TOTAL so far is 40million. To (imperfectly) compare, this will give you a LOWER (MORE rare) outcome but....
    That works out to about 0.4% of the population under 65 who contracted COVID.

    If you were to compare 0.4% and 0.00018%, a person should recognize thatsuggesting the relative incidents of both of these percentages are both "comparable" and both "rare", is really imprecise at best, but mostly just illogical. I mean, it's 2000x different.






    The application of the word (or really concept) "rare" has shown to be terrifyingly inconsistent to folks who "haven't bought the COVID narrative". I wonder if there's a correlation in misunderstanding/misapplication of terms and reluctance to believe the science.
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2021
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  3. Isaiah 41:10

    Isaiah 41:10 Well-Known Member

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    People are slowly running out of excuses. The truth that it's all just politically motivated denial slowly comes to light.
     
  4. rambot

    rambot Senior Member

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    Technically yes but if instead the unvaccinated would get vaccinated, the impact would likely be 100 fold greater. Not only that but it is the unvaccinated who will continue to burden the health care system for some unknown amount of time.

    The purpose of good hygiene, distancing and masks was ALWAYS just to "buy time until a vaccine". I remember hearing that message often. Yes those things help to control, but their impact is simply NOT as great as a vaccine is.


    It's JUST not.
     
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  5. stevil

    stevil Godless and without morals

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    Not just to buy time. The vaccinated should still continue doing these things, especially when there are large numbers e.g 20%+ of people who aren't vaccinated and are spreading disease throughout society
     
  6. stevil

    stevil Godless and without morals

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    I've done some research on this now. I haven't found anything that supports the claim you are promoting. All articles I read last night show that people who have previously caught Covid are better off also getting vaccinated.

    The situation in Israel seems to indicate that a yearly vaccination dose is required, as well as masking and social distancing and washing hands.
     
  7. bekkilyn

    bekkilyn Contemplative Christian Supporter

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    Until a vaccine that actually STOPPED the virus.

    This one doesn't, which is a reason I'll often use "vaccine" instead of vaccine.

    Vaccinated people can and do still get COVID-19.

    Vaccinated people can do still spread COVID-19.

    They are not "safe" from others and others are not "safe" around them regardless of anyone's vaccination status. Thinking about going to that superspreader event just because you got the vaccine? Think again.

    But that's just like our culture. We want a magic "pill" for everything because we don't want change our unhealthy lifestyles into healthier ones.

    The vaccine isn't going to wash our hands for us either. We still have to do that on our own.

    (And of course rather than agreeing that everyone should still be wearing masks, practicing good hygiene, social distancing, etc., I know that the responses to this post will still be, "But the unvaccinated people ________!" What do they have to do with what you do?)
     
  8. rambot

    rambot Senior Member

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    To be clear: I'm DEFINITELY not arguing that they should stop.

    Just that the effect would be negligable compared to the impact of everyone getting a vaccine.

    If you look at the data from the UK, their 4th wave really only went down by half and then popped back up again.

    OR everyone getting sick at the same time.
     
  9. rambot

    rambot Senior Member

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    In time the delta variant will have its own vaccine that is successful. But your logic is just wrong.

    Polio vaccine only guarantees 90% safety. Virtually/nobody gets polio.
    Small Pox vaccine gets 95%
    Measles is 93% effective.

    Your "it has to be a silver bullet for me to call it that" is both misguided and unhelpful to your understanding of how vaccines work to stop the spread.


    Again, there's no such thing as a silver bullet. But what I DO know is that with my two vaccines, the chances of me ending up in the hospital are miniscule compared to someone who doesn't have the vaccine.

    You are welcome to blame a culture that wants a "magic pill". And you are right that the vaccine is not a "magic pill". But if enough people take it, the illness that it conquers will likely become as important in the cultural zeitgeist as rubella.

    As a society, if we had 100% vaccinations the disease would die. That simply cannot be argued. There is a reason vaccines have eradicated more than a few diseases over the last 200 years.

    (And of course rather than agreeing that everyone should still be wearing masks, practicing good hygiene, social distancing, etc., I know that the responses to this post will still be, "But the unvaccinated people ________!" What do they have to do with what you do?)[/QUOTE]
    You're right, everyone should still be doing it. But as I (and many others have said) hygiene distancing and hand washing isn't going to cut it. It's not. It's assinine to believe that wearing a mask is going to have the same impact as taking a vaccine. But again, the unvaccinated are going to be the one's who die and who drag the death toll on longer and longer.
    I'm sorry that the unvaccinated people having to take responsibility for their (in)action is distasteful, but yeah. It's totally true.
     
  10. JulieB67

    JulieB67 Well-Known Member

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    But my point is why even take a risk if you already have the strong antibodies? Especially the younger people who are known to have more side effects? That's the only thing I've been promoting. And why take the risk if you've already recovered of any potential long term effects. We won't know these for a couple of years.

    And even though I've studied quite a bit as well but also have to take what my own immune system is telling me so I choose to believe that if someone has strong antibodies, why even take a minimal risk if one does not have to? And again, Hooman Noorchasm retired doctor, immunologist, etc (who is vaccinated) tells me that natural immunity is usually stronger and more robusts, even with varients I'd rather believe him because it lines up with what my own immune system is telling me and even stacks up with the CDC that still states as of this month that reinfection remains rare. They haven't changed that stance other than everyone needs vaccinated, even though studies are still supposedly being done. Plus, they've already admitted that the vaccines wane after time and therefore some will need boosters. So again, if one has strong antibodies why even sign up for something that's not necessary? But it's ok, we all have to sail our own ships when coming to medical decisions.

    For me personally who has previously caught Covid and still have IgG immunity after 15 months it was an easy decision for me. I didn't even jump into any of these discussions until that. Are there some that get reinfected, of course but so do those that get vaccinated. But for me, why take the risk when my antibodies are still strong. I worked in health care for almost 30 years and have had vaccines, I'm not anti vaccine by any means but having recovered, it's telling me that my immune system is doing it's job. Is it that way for everyone, of course not but I can't speak for everyone I can only speak for myself.

    Dr Noorchasm also is very strongly against someone having strong antibodies getting the vaccine. He also said that the natural immunity would most likely be stronger and more robust than fighting the varients. And there's always more potential for harm than good. And he also promotes screening regardless if someone is unvaccinated or vaccinated.

    But again, it's fine if we disagree but I have to go with my own immune system and what it's telling me, etc.
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2021
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  11. bekkilyn

    bekkilyn Contemplative Christian Supporter

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    This current vaccine isn't anywhere close to the polio "silver bullet". It's currently more like a lumpy lead bullet. :)

    Hospitalization rate has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that a vaccinated person does and still becomes infected with COVID-19 and can and does transmit the COVID-19 virus to others. In fact, a vaccinated person is probably less likely to know that they're even getting other people sick because they can be sick and not even know it.

    Hospitalization rate is not what stops the virus. The lack of infected people is what stops the virus and the vaccine doesn't do that.

    Doesn't look like this vaccine is doing a whole lot of conquering, even among the vaccinated when they're out throwing precautions to the wind and spreading the virus everywhere because they have a misguided view that the vaccine has made them "safe" from all danger or being a danger to others.

    I'm specifically discussing *this* vaccine. Not vaccines in general. This vaccine is still relatively untested as to long-term effectiveness and long-term health consequences.

    I do wish people would stop the implications that just because people currently remain unconvinced concerning this particular vaccine that they are rabid anti-vaxxers who are opposed to all vaccines.

    FINALLY!

    And of course here it comes...always the "but".

    And yet for a vaccine that doesn't actually prevent COVID-19, the mask and hygiene and social distancing could be the very difference that makes "less likely to get COVID-19" into more of the silvery bullet category.

    Yep, here we go....

    Vaccinated people are still dying from COVID-19 as well. If vaccination truly kept people "safe" the vaccinated wouldn't be freaking out so much when one of the unvaccinated "lepers" comes into their midst in spite of the fact that vaccinated people can and do still transmit the virus to one another. And while it is more likely they won't have severe symptoms and can avoid the hospital, it's not a guarantee.

    What is more distasteful than unvaccinated people, many who have medical conditions that prevent them from being compliant test subjects in this worldwide one-size-fits-all vaccine experiment, is the vaccinated people who are condemning them and all the while refusing to take responsible precautions themselves.

    If all you've got is the vaccine, you're not safe from getting or spreading COVID-19. The fact that others may be even more in danger of it doesn't make this statement any less true.
     
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  12. stevil

    stevil Godless and without morals

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    From a risk analysis perspective
    The original SARS-Cov-2 strain has an R0 of 3 meaning it is very contagious
    The Delta variant has an R0 of 6 meaning it is much more contagious than the original strain
    These have been spreading across the world at a staggering rate, have been overwhelming hospitals and killing millions of people.
    If R0 is above 1 the disease becomes more prevalent if R0 is below 1 it becomes less prevalent and goes away.

    As a society we can lower the R0 by social distancing, wearing masks, washing hands, not touching faces and by getting vaccinated. In most countries, what we have been doing hasn't been enough to get R0 down below 1.

    The individual risk of being hospitalised once infected is around 20%
    The individual risk of dying once infected is around 1-3% but can be less depending on age and health situation.

    There have been many cases of people catching the disease multiple times and there have been cases of immunised people catching the disease.

    The Pfizer immunisation is 95% effective (after two doses). Works on most people, but not all people.
    The risk of illness and death from vaccine is much less than the risk of illness and death from Covid.

    Frequently Asked Questions about COVID-19 Vaccination
    Evidence is emerging that people get better protection by being fully vaccinated compared with having had COVID-19. One study showed that unvaccinated people who already had COVID-19 are more than 2 times as likely than fully vaccinated people to get COVID-19 again.

    People Who've Had COVID-19 Should Get Vaccinated

    • Researchers say people who’ve had COVID-19 but remain unvaccinated are more likely to develop the disease again than those who’ve been vaccinated.
    A new report from the U.S. Centers for the Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) states that those who do not get vaccinated after the illness are nearly two and half times more likely to develop COVID-19 again.

    If I've already had COVID, do I need a vaccine? And how does the immune system respond? An expert explains
    Natural immunity is not enough
    Getting COVID and recovering (known as “natural infection”) doesn’t appear to generate protection as robust as that generated after vaccination.

    And the immune response generated post-infection and vaccination, known as hybrid immunity, is more potent than either natural infection or vaccination alone.

    People who have had COVID and recovered and then been vaccinated against COVID have more diverse and high-quality memory B-cell responses than people who’ve just been vaccinated.
    [/QUOTE]
     
  13. hedrick

    hedrick Senior Veteran Supporter

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    It’s odd. Data from Nj, and maybe the US in general, seems different from Israel. The study in the OP showed immunity from having Covid better in large part because the vaccine was relatively ineffective. But that doesn’t seem true here. Furthermore, US data to see whether effectiveness is decreasing is ambiguous. I don’t have any answers, but Covid or the vaccines seem to be behaving differently in different areas, or there’s some other factor that I haven’t seen. Perhaps different behavior patterns?
     
  14. Lain Iwakura

    Lain Iwakura Member

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    I find it funny that (locally) only those who are validated to not have Covid are required to wear masks, but those who are not validated, because they are not required to be tested, are not required to wear masks.
     
  15. Pommer

    Pommer Autodidact polymath Supporter

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    What’s “local” for you?
     
  16. Lain Iwakura

    Lain Iwakura Member

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    I'm referring to government employment in my state. Or would you prefer having my exact home address?
     
  17. Pommer

    Pommer Autodidact polymath Supporter

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    Under your avatar it saith “United States”, but “Windsor” under the profile quick link…so…Detroit?
     
  18. Lain Iwakura

    Lain Iwakura Member

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    I don't really like you trying to guess where I live. I do live in a Windsor in the United States - yes, but there are may Windsor's in the United States and I don't want you, or anyone else on this forum, knowing which one.
     
  19. JulieB67

    JulieB67 Well-Known Member

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    But I can just as easy state the recent Israel study which shows just the opposite. And that study was done when the delta was rampant in Israel. And this was a huge study and much more in depth than the KY one. So we can kind of go back and forth but I think we'll have to agree to disagree.

    Why natural immunity better than COVID-19 vaccines, study reveals - National Daily Newspaper

    “It’s a textbook example of how natural immunity is really better than vaccination,” Charlotte Thålin, a physician and immunology researcher at Danderyd Hospital and the Karolinska Institute, told Science. “To my knowledge, it’s the first time [this] has really been shown in the context of COVID-19.”

    Even Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commisioner sited the recent Israel study and said that natural immunity should at least be included in the mandate discussions,

    "Natural Immunity" Needs to Be Included In COVID Mandate Plans - Pfizer Board Member Warns Policymakers


    Former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, who is a Pfizer board member, noted that “natural immunity” gained from a prior COVID-19 infection needs to be included in discussions about policies and mandates.

    “The balance of the evidence demonstrates that natural immunity confers a durable protection,” Gottlieb said during a Monday morning TV interview, referring to a landmark new preprint Israeli study that found prior COVID-19 infection confers much more protection against the virus than any vaccine.

    “It’s fair to conclude that,” he said.

    The CDC themselves that also state that reinfection is rare and that the evidence suggest that some vaccine strength is waning here in the US, so who are we to believe?

    That's why I have to go with my own immune system on this one.
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2021
  20. Pommer

    Pommer Autodidact polymath Supporter

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    Mea culpa, I forget myself sometimes.
     
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