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US now has most COVID-19 deaths, surpassing Italy (ETA: more than Italy per capita)

Discussion in 'News & Current Events (Articles Required)' started by essentialsaltes, Apr 11, 2020.

  1. Monna

    Monna Well-Known Member

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    Accurate in what sense?
    If it doesn't count the people in old folks homes who die there of CoVid-19, or poor people who don't get into a hospital at all, etc etc ... it certainly isn't accurate in terms of number of infected people, and probably not of number of deaths from the virus.

    "Tracking daily hospitalization data is a major step forward in quantifying the current impact on local hospital systems..." (from site referenced)

    It is only a more accurate indication of the utilisation of hospital facilities --- it isn't really a fully accurate indication on "the current impact on local hospital systems ..." if it doesn't indicate the number of people turned away, or who would come if they thought they could get care, but believe they can't. I.e. measuring the extent to which demand is greater than supply. Also, hospitalisations alone, indicate only hospitalisation (See the note under the map in the figure) - it doesn't indicate the degree to which demand for specialised equipment inside hospitals is being exceeded.
     
  2. ZNP

    ZNP Well-Known Member

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    The number of confirmed cases of Covid is based on the number of tests you have done, do more tests, you will have more confirmed cases. For example, Iceland has done more testing per capital than any other country in the world and they have discovered that approximately 1% of their population is infected. Now it is difficult for me to believe that Iceland has a higher infection rate than the US. If we also have a 1% infection rate then our current "confirmed cases" around 500,000 is between 1/6th and 1/7th of the true number.

    However, for people who are sick enough to go to the hospital we would have a much more accurate number. These people are tested. True, there are some who are sick enough yet don't go to the hospital, and there are some who die at home, but is it really 6 or 7 times the number that is hospitalized?

    The second way this increases accuracy is we have a 2nd metric to use. We can count deaths and estimate total infection, we can count hospitalizations and estimate total infections, we can do a comprehensive testing of a random sampling (like Iceland) and make estimates of total infections.
     
  3. ThatRobGuy

    ThatRobGuy Part of the IT crowd Supporter

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    Not surprising when you consider population sizes, and the fact that a large concentration of the cases (and deaths) are in NYC...a city that doesn't have an Italian counterpart in terms of population density.

    NYC: 71,340 people per square mile

    Rome (Italy's most densely populated city): 5,781 per square mile.

    Given the overall population sizes of the various nations, and the population densities in some of our metropolitan areas, I'd say the US is doing quite well in comparison to other nations.

    Furthermore, in terms of the death rate in the US, we don't have an accurate denominator to work off of at this point until they do some randomized data collection about how many people have the antibodies for it (indicating that they had the virus, and have recovered from it).
     
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2020
  4. ZNP

    ZNP Well-Known Member

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    More to it than that. It is a wealthy city that has one of the busiest international airports in the world, with the a second very busy international airport just over the border in NJ. It is also a shipping hub. Then everyone uses mass transit (subway and bus), the high school I'm at has 2,000 kids and about 400 adults working there. All the kids take the subway and bus from all over the city (Queens, Brooklyn, even Bronx) and the teachers are from all over the city, long island and Westchester. On top of that the Mayor resisted closing the schools for over a week, insuring that everyone got infected.

    We had teachers from New Rochelle and Nassau county, the two hot spots. Now one person infected comes into that school and 2400 people become exposed and carry it to the four corners of the city in a single day. Get the infection inside subway cars and they are traveling from one end of the city to the other getting people infected in a single day.
     
  5. OldWiseGuy

    OldWiseGuy Wake me when it's soup. Supporter

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    That just tells you that New York has more old, weak, and sick people, many of whom didn't seek medical attention until it was too late.
     
  6. blackribbon

    blackribbon Not a newbie

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    If they die at home and are not on hospice, an autopsy is required to determine the cause of death.
     
  7. blackribbon

    blackribbon Not a newbie

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    Real statistics won't be available until we start to test for who has antibodies. They asymptomatic people are not needing hospital care. And if they are staying at home and not going around other people, they won't spread it to others. While people are dying and are sick enough to be hospitalized, it is hard to put any focus on the people who aren't very sick. While we are in the middle of the storm isn't really the best angle to get an overall picture. That will come in time.
     
  8. blackribbon

    blackribbon Not a newbie

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    You also have to weigh in that there is a 30% false negative rate. That means 30% of those who test "negative" are really positive and either the swab was done incorrectly or the test was taken at a time where there were not enough virus to register positive.
     
  9. Subduction Zone

    Subduction Zone Regular Member

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    People that are infected but are asymptomatic are a huge problem.
     
  10. KCfromNC

    KCfromNC Regular Member

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    It does?
     
  11. OldWiseGuy

    OldWiseGuy Wake me when it's soup. Supporter

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    Each death must be examined carefully for a multitude of reasons.
     
  12. OldWiseGuy

    OldWiseGuy Wake me when it's soup. Supporter

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    The majority of deaths occur in older folks with health problems. Minority populations are hit the hardest as it is they who are most reluctant to seek medical attention early on. The crowded conditions that New Yorkers live in, which is especially true of minorities, is a key factor in the rapid spread of the virus. All these factors created a 'perfect storm' in New York.
     
  13. grasping the after wind

    grasping the after wind That's grasping after the wind

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    That is simply an unreasonable thing to say. New York has 100 more per capita. New York is not the entire US it is only New York. If New York was the entire US, Hillary Clinton would be President and the entire US might well have 100 more per capita than Italy due to the likely possibility that she . like Biden, would not have banned travel from China when Trump did because that would have been Xenophobic and they would not ever want to be seen as acting Xenophobically just to protect some Americans from harm. So what did New York do wrong then and why aren't people placing the bulk of the blame on the huge numbers coming from New York on the people in chart in New York for doing the worst job in the US in prevention?
     
  14. Subduction Zone

    Subduction Zone Regular Member

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    But now you dropped your old and weak claim. Yes, the old and immunocompromised are the most likely to die, but that has little to do with why and how it spread so quickly in New York.
     
  15. grasping the after wind

    grasping the after wind That's grasping after the wind

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    Doesn't the EU actually lead the world in Covid-19 deaths?
     
  16. sfs

    sfs Senior Member

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    What difference would that have made? Almost all airlines had already cancelled flights from China by the time Trump banned flights.
     
  17. grasping the after wind

    grasping the after wind That's grasping after the wind

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    There is a vast difference between all and almost. Just like the difference between being the most , the best the greatest at something and and being really good at it. How many flights would it take to make a travel ban Xenophobic?
     
  18. Subduction Zone

    Subduction Zone Regular Member

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    And Trump did not exactly ban flights. His claims about what he did, surprise surprise, were inaccurate at best. After he imposed travel restrictions 40,000 people still came to the U.S. from China:

    Direct flights from China brought 40k to U.S. after Trump coronavirus travel ban

    Thousands were from Wuhan alone.

    And another article that goes into a bit of depth comparing Trump's claims, exaggerated and false, and what actually happened:

    AP FACT CHECK: Trump’s inaccurate boasts on China travel ban

    Trump has to focus on the few things that he did rather ineffectively than own up to how he dropped the ball before this problem even arose.
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
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  19. Subduction Zone

    Subduction Zone Regular Member

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    That is a bit of a strawman. Trump shows his xenophobia largely in how he tries to blame others for his failings.
     
  20. grasping the after wind

    grasping the after wind That's grasping after the wind

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    The act of banning travel from China was labelled Xenophobic. That is not a strawman it is reference to an actual charge levelled by people at the time toward the act itself.
     
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