US breaks 200k deaths from covid.

[loveofourlord]

Well that didn't take long, this is one terrible year, though I won't be surprised if India breaks all US records soon, they are already nearing 100k cases a day and may very well this week.

United States Coronavirus: 6,788,147 Cases and 200,197 Deaths - Worldometer

 

[public hermit]

Some folks ain't going to care until it hits their front door-step. Then they'll be on FB like, "It's not a hoax y'all!" Pfft. We're stupid.

 

[Hank77]

 

[SkyWriting]

Well that didn't take long, this is one terrible year, though I won't be surprised if India breaks all US records soon, they are already nearing 100k cases a day and may very well this week.

United States Coronavirus: 6,788,147 Cases and 200,197 Deaths - Worldometer

Updated September 15, 2020
All Deaths involving COVID-19
Total Deaths 180,882
Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) - CDC

 

[Gene2memE]

Updated September 15, 2020
All Deaths involving COVID-19
Total Deaths 180,882
Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) - CDC

CDC provisional count is slower than most other sources. Per the CDC Provisional Death Count webpage: "COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks". See: Technical Notes: Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

Given that the US has averaged 881 fatalities per day for the past week, a lag of about 2 weeks seems right.

 

[SkyWriting]

CDC provisional count is slower than most other sources. Per the CDC Provisional Death Count webpage: "COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks". See: Technical Notes: Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

Given that the US has averaged 881 fatalities per day for the past week, a lag of about 2 weeks seems right.

Even three weeks lag time is under 200K. If you pass a milestone....shouldn't you pass the milestone first? Is Scientific American still asserting that this number would be zero under different leadership? What country should we BE modeling, may we ask?
View attachment 284723

 

[Gene2memE]

Even three weeks lag time is under 200K. If you pass a milestone....shouldn't you pass the milestone first? Is Scientific American still asserting that this number would be zero under different leadership? What country should we BE modeling, may we ask?
View attachment 284723

Most counts are very close (or even above) to 200,000:

Worldometer: 200,197
UCLA: 200,171
MIT: 199,849:
Iowa State: 199,265
University of Colombia: 198,865;
Johns Hopkins University: 195,915;
IHME:196,927 (13 September)
YYG: 194,486 (14 September)
Harvard: 194,238 (14 September)
Uni of Texas: 191, 875 (11 September)

So, the lowest current count is within about 2% of 200,000.

All of the current models project deaths passing 200,000 before or during the last week of September. Most of them project an additional ~20,000 deaths through October. Some models have death totals approaching 250,000 by the start of November.

 

[Gene2memE]

Is Scientific American still asserting that this number would be zero under different leadership?

I think the Scientific American is asserting that US death rates would have been drastically lower if there weren't a "dishonest and inept response" from a president who didn't reject "evidence and public health measures" and actively lie about what he has or hasn't directed the US federal government to do.

What country should we BE modeling, may we ask?

Scientific American again: "countries in Europe and Asia have gained control over their outbreaks, saved lives, and successfully reopened businesses and schools."

As for specific countries, how about:

South Korea: 7 deaths per 100,000 population
New Zealand: 5 deaths per 100,000 population
Singapore: 6 deaths per 100,000 population
Japan: 11 deaths per 100,000 population
Australia: 32 deaths per 100,000 population

At this point, I'd like to see the US emulating Germany (113 deaths per 100,000 population) or even France (465 deaths per 100,000), where they've doubled down on lockdowns in response to renewed case levels.

 

[SkyWriting]

I think the Scientific American is asserting that US death rates would have been drastically lower if there weren't a "dishonest and inept response" from a president who didn't reject "evidence and public health measures" and actively lie about what he has or hasn't directed the US federal government to do.

Exactly my point. So Scientifically speaking, Trump is only responsible for the difference between his policies and say, Hillary's response.

I see people not wearing masks in the grocery store. Would those people not exist if not for Trump? Maybe. Maybe not.

 

[SkyWriting]

Some folks ain't going to care until it hits their front door-step. Then they'll be on FB like, "It's not a hoax y'all!" Pfft. We're stupid.

I know this to be a fact. I have a relative who's wife is a nurse, and he's is not convinced it's worse than the flue. He said " I don't know anyone who has gotten it."

 

[KCfromNC]

I know this to be a fact. I have a relative who's wife is a nurse, and he's is not convinced it's worse than the flue.

Can you let us know who employs this person so I can be sure to go somewhere else if I get sick?

Meanwhile the data quite clearly shows that this is way worse than the flu. Or even the flue. Hard to know who to believe - the wife of a relative of some anonymous person on the internet or actual data.

He said " I don't know anyone who has gotten it."

I don't know anyone living in Mississippi. That means the state doesn't actually exist?

 

[KCfromNC]

Exactly my point. So Scientifically speaking, Trump is only responsible for the difference between his policies and say, Hillary's response.

Good luck with "Donald's only responsible for most of the covid deaths" as a campaign slogan.

 

[JohnDB]

India should pass the USA in cases by the end of next week. And it's going to pass us like we are standing still. They have over a billion more people than the US.

Look at "Cases per Million" to really determine how a country is doing at this point...
America is at roughly 2% of population infection and likely is a little higher than that from those who don't get tested or are hiding from getting tested.

The UK is about in the same situation with roughly 2% of the population infected at one point.
Currently infected percentage is yet another number...and a bit more difficult to determine... doctor fatigue is an issue with the "feeling better" crowd.
(Where they don't return to the doctor for a clear test after feeling better)

But India is definitely going to be the one to watch...and avoid for a while yet.

 

[Jonathan Walkerin]

Maybe. Maybe not.

Which is why the idle speculation of what Hillary would have done is pretty much waste of time.

You deal with what is and not what could have been.

Which means in this reality Trump’s leadership in this crisis has been ....sub-optimal...which is reflected on the death count.

While it makes a great herring to speculate how other people would also have goofed up it is hardly a relevant metric to judge someone’s performance.

 

[SkyWriting]

Which is why the idle speculation of what Hillary would have done is pretty much waste of time.You deal with what is and not what could have been.Which means in this reality Trump’s leadership in this crisis has been ....sub-optimal...which is reflected on the death count.While it makes a great herring to speculate how other people would also have goofed up it is hardly a relevant metric to judge someone’s performance.

Exactly my point. Thank you. Trump is not responsible for 200,000 deaths. He is only responsible for the level of his sub-optimal performance. Similar run countries have similar curves.

Our country is not run the same as the orient is.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Trump is not responsible for 200,000 deaths. He is only responsible for the level of his sub-optimal performance. Similar run countries have similar curves.

Did you look for the oldest graph you could find? From when there were fewer than a million cases in the US?

This one's old, too, but not so old. Note that the graph is per capita, so all regions are on an equal footing. It's easier to assess Trump's sub-optimal performance.

 

[Aryeh Jay]

Did you look for the oldest graph you could find? From when there were fewer than a million cases in the US?

This one's old, too, but not so old. Note that the graph is per capita, so all regions are on an equal footing. It's easier to assess Trump's sub-optimal performance.

More Winning!

 

[Halbhh]

I know this to be a fact. I have a relative who's wife is a nurse, and he's is not convinced it's worse than the flue. He said " I don't know anyone who has gotten it."

Do you personally know about 1500 or 1800 people where you've had a definite face to face impression of them and can recall them -- name and/or face and personality?

I'm not sure how many I personally know or would recognize that way.

Maybe 500 to 800.

Suppose it's 800.

Math question for you (not a hard one) -- how many U.S. deaths until there would be a 50/50 chance that someone I know personally has died if I know 800 people? The population of the U.S. is about 328 million.

 

[Halbhh]

I think the Scientific American is asserting that US death rates would have been drastically lower if there weren't a "dishonest and inept response" from a president who didn't reject "evidence and public health measures" and actively lie about what he has or hasn't directed the US federal government to do.



Scientific American again: "countries in Europe and Asia have gained control over their outbreaks, saved lives, and successfully reopened businesses and schools."

As for specific countries, how about:

South Korea: 7 deaths per 100,000 population
New Zealand: 5 deaths per 100,000 population
Singapore: 6 deaths per 100,000 population
Japan: 11 deaths per 100,000 population
Australia: 32 deaths per 100,000 population

At this point, I'd like to see the US emulating Germany (113 deaths per 100,000 population) or even France (465 deaths per 100,000), where they've doubled down on lockdowns in response to renewed case levels.

Yes, one gets to appreciate Angela Merkel more and more, as time passes, even from a distance.

 

[Brightmoon]

I

I always dreamed about having kids and being a mother. To me, being a mom seems like a really rewarding thing in life. Some women don't want kids and prefer to focus on their careers instead. But not me.

I've been married for 6 years now, and during this whole time my husband didn't want to have children. He has anxiety and stress problems, and he feels like it isn't the right time to have a family. But I'm in my early 30s, and having kids at my age is difficult. And it gets even more difficult the more I age. By 40 having a child naturally would be nearly impossible.

I became very impatient with my husband. I kept telling him I wanted a family, but he continually said we should wait longer. I was so tired of being put off that I decided to do something that, although it seemed right at first, has been bothering my conscience.

I clandestinely went to a reproductive clinic and told them I wanted to have children via IVF. I selected a sperm donor who is 6'3" and has blonde hair and blue eyes. I went through the treatments without my husband's knowledge or consent, and now I'm several months pregnant with twins.

My husband believes the unborn twin babies are his. Although he didn't really want a family, he seems mildly happy about my pregnancy. I'm definitely excited about becoming a mom, but part of me is worried that, after the kids are born, my husband will eventually find out they're not his babies, since they probably won't look like him. What if he divorces me? The prospect of that happening is frightening.

Part of me wants to keep it a secret. After all, I didn't commit actual adultery on my husband. I've been faithful to him during our entire marriage. If our children don't share his DNA, is there really any harm? Your parents are always the ones who raise you irrespective of genetic lineage. Again, I've been faithful to him during our entire marriage, so did I really do anything wrong? I think not.

Well I'm really torn over what I should do. Should I come clean and tell him that the twins aren't actually his? Or should I let this little white lie be kept a secret for the good of the family and for the good of my marriage?

I know 6 people who’ve died from it . Including 2 in my building . I live in a small apartment building (less than 20 apartments ) . The 3 other lived in the same neighborhood. The last was a coworker of my sister who went to a ballet with me when she couldn’t go . So it kinda hit me too. If you’d seen those bodies in refrigerated trucks out side of hospitals maybe you’d take it more seriously