Ukraine: The End Game

[mindlight]

The war in Ukraine continues as Winter approaches. Putin seeks to weaken Ukrainian resolve by destroying their ability to keep themselves warm in the cold of Winter. Ukrainian troops continue to advance toward Kherson but the Russians are digging in. The Russians continue to throw themselves almost suicidally at the objective of securing the whole of the Donbas but make only slow advances there. Iranian drones fill the skies over Kyiv.

But what is the end game here, how does this end? Let me try out some possibilities and let me know what you think.

1) The war will drag on for years because neither side is willing to compromise on its basic goals and eventually they will settle on a cease-fire with a divided Ukraine.

2) Russia will win, ultimately grinding down Ukrainian resistance, possibly weakened by the sudden withdrawal of American support and the inadequacy of the European alternative. (See midterms and the possibility of a Republican victory)

3) Ukraine will win whether by military or diplomatic means and get all its lands back. Maybe Putin dies or there is a coup of some sort in Moscow or maybe China leans on Putin to withdraw - who knows how?

4) There will be a quick peace with a divided land.

5) Other.

How do you think this will end?

 

[Nithavela]

A "quick peace" or a draw would just cause another war a few years down the line.

So would a russian win, with Moldova next on the chopping block.

 

[ByTheSpirit]

Im honestly surprised the West still cares about it. I thought for sure if it didn't end quickly in Ukraine's favor that the West would lose interest and move on to the next shiny crisis.

 

[mindlight]

A "quick peace" or a draw would just cause another war a few years down the line.

So would a russian win, with Moldova next on the chopping block.

That might well be true but at some point, decisions have to be made as to whether it is worth the cost of human life and treasure to keep fighting. Neither side are anywhere near talking peace right now. Russia will be weakened by this for the next generation regardless of the outcome while Ukraine may well move sharply West, prosper in the EU, and with NATO guarantees become more secure. Come the next war who will be in the stronger position?

 

[mindlight]

Im honestly surprised the West still cares about it. I thought for sure if it didn't end quickly in Ukraine's favor that the West would lose interest and move on to the next shiny crisis.

The stakes are much higher for this conflict than before. It is also clear that China and Russia have been talking about the engineering of a new world order that puts China in charge of Taiwan and knocks the West off its top spot. Also, I think you underestimate many European country's resilience when faced with a crisis right on their borders. Remember the break up of Yugoslavia, commitment there was spread over many years.

 

[Andrewn]

How do you think this will end?

I doubt that even Biden and Putin can answer this question.

The Russian army turned out to be too weak.

15 million Ukrainian women and children have fled the country.

And the huge amounts of money and equipment sent to Ukraine are unprecedented.

I remember reading that the US sent $50 billion. Perhaps other countries collectively sent another $50 billion. The Ukrainian government owes this huge debt.

Inflation is soaring. We are all paying for the war. People in Third World countries are getting poorer.

And the environment is suffering.

These billions of dollars could have alleviated the suffering in poor countries.

These are random thoughts that do not answer the question.

I hope we are not headed for Armageddon.

 

[Nithavela]

That might well be true but at some point, decisions have to be made as to whether it is worth the cost of human life and treasure to keep fighting. Neither side are anywhere near talking peace right now. Russia will be weakened by this for the next generation regardless of the outcome while Ukraine may well move sharply West, prosper in the EU, and with NATO guarantees become more secure. Come the next war who will be in the stronger position?

It's for Ukraine to make this decision. It seems like their decision is to keep fighting until full victory is achieved.

 

[archer75]

It's for Ukraine to make this decision. It seems like their decision is to keep fighting until full victory is achieved.

As any reasonable country would do when they are attacked by a mad machine with genocidal intent.

 

[Matt5]

It ends in World War III.

If you will remember, on 17-Dec-2021 Russia made the following demands: Nato out of Eastern Europe and the US reduced to a regional role only, or else a military-technical response (war.) On 24-Feb-2022 we got war in Ukraine. But the Ukraine war is not really about Ukraine. It's about the West.

[27-Oct-2022] Putin Blasts West, Says World Faces Most Dangerous Decade Since WW2

"The historical period of the West's undivided dominance over world affairs is coming to an end," Putin, Russia's paramount leader, told the Valdai Discussion Club during a session entitled "A Post-Hegemonic World: Justice and Security for Everyone".

"We are standing at a historical frontier: Ahead is probably the most dangerous, unpredictable and, at the same time, important decade since the end of World War Two."

[6-Oct-2022] Biden Says Risk of Nuclear ‘Armageddon’ Is Highest Since 1962 Crisis - The New York Times

The rapture, apocalypse, and end times are sweeping Christian books, with a Trump connection. | Slate.Com

 

[mindlight]

I doubt that even Biden and Putin can answer this question.

The Russian army turned out to be too weak.

15 million Ukrainian women and children have fled the country.

And the huge amounts of money and equipment sent to Ukraine are unprecedented.

I remember reading that the US sent $50 billion. Perhaps other countries collectively sent another $50 billion. The Ukrainian government owes this huge debt.

Inflation is soaring. We are all paying for the war. People in Third World countries are getting poorer.

And the environment is suffering.

These billions of dollars could have alleviated the suffering in poor countries.

These are random thoughts that do not answer the question.

I hope we are not headed for Armageddon.

Your list of impacts indicates that Ukraine is just the tip of the spear against Russian aggression. The people who are paying for this war are the poorest and most vulnerable as food and energy insecurity threatens their already fragile well-being. This war is being paid for at the cost of the future. But if Russia is allowed to win more wars may follow, if not from a weakened Russia then from China. But this war has to end as the casualties are not just occurring in Ukraine.

 

[mindlight]

It's for Ukraine to make this decision. It seems like their decision is to keep fighting until full victory is achieved.

They can decide to fight but need international support to keep that possible. I am worried about America's midterms and that Europe is just not up to the job if America withdraws from this fight. Britain will support Ukraine as long as this lasts I believe but there is a real weakness in German and French leadership here that might not survive the demands of standing alone against Russia.

 

[Nithavela]

They can decide to fight but need international support to keep that possible. I am worried about America's midterms and that Europe is just not up to the job if America withdraws from this fight. Britain will support Ukraine as long as this lasts I believe but there is a real weakness in German and French leadership here that might not survive the demands of standing alone against Russia.

If Scholtz wants to commit political suicide with the SPD (again), he's welcome to withdraw support to Ukraine.

Of course, when Trump becomes President in 2025 and pulls the USA out of NATO, this will all be unimportant.

 

[mindlight]

It ends in World War III.

If you will remember, on 17-Dec-2021 Russia made the following demands: Nato out of Eastern Europe and the US reduced to a regional role only, or else a military-technical response (war.) On 24-Feb-2022 we got war in Ukraine. But the Ukraine war is not really about Ukraine. It's about the West.

[27-Oct-2022] Putin Blasts West, Says World Faces Most Dangerous Decade Since WW2

"The historical period of the West's undivided dominance over world affairs is coming to an end," Putin, Russia's paramount leader, told the Valdai Discussion Club during a session entitled "A Post-Hegemonic World: Justice and Security for Everyone".

"We are standing at a historical frontier: Ahead is probably the most dangerous, unpredictable and, at the same time, important decade since the end of World War Two."

[6-Oct-2022] Biden Says Risk of Nuclear ‘Armageddon’ Is Highest Since 1962 Crisis - The New York Times

The rapture, apocalypse, and end times are sweeping Christian books, with a Trump connection. | Slate.Com

Russia is not strong enough to force this change by itself whatever rhetoric Putin employs. China is more credible for the role but not yet ready to force this change and European leadership was inept in the preamble to this war and remains divided and weak during it. The key to this conflict is the American will to see it to its end. If they want to stay in pole position, they will stay there and there is little that Russia can do about it. Even if China joins in and attempts to do Taiwan America is strong enough to see them off also. But America has to want this and the midterms are crucial to what happens next. My prayer is that Americans vote for the candidates (regardless of party - who understand the significance of this war).

If America stays in the fight, Russia will bleed itself dry for at best a Pyrrhic victory.

 

[mindlight]

If Scholtz wants to commit political suicide with the SPD (again), he's welcome to withdraw support to Ukraine.

Of course, when Trump becomes President in 2025 and pulls the USA out of NATO, this will all be unimportant.

The SPD are the reason that Germany is in the mess it is in today with its energy and military policy of the last 30 years being the prime reason for saying that.
Scholtz has always seemed wiser than his party but he is handicapped by them.

Even the Green's new belligerence vis a-vis Russia seems a little like political opportunism and a guilty conscience on display after decades of fighting every demand for higher military spending.

The police are preparing for blackouts and Germans these days are not exactly a hardy bunch. I hope their resolve lasts the Winter but it will take longer to re-engineer the kind of warrior culture that would have Putin shaking in his boots and could truly protect the weaker nations of Europe from aggressors like Russia. We need America in this fight and the midterms threaten that.

 

[Nithavela]

The SPD are the reason that Germany is in the mess it is in today with its energy and military policy of the last 30 years being the prime reason for saying that.
Scholtz has always seemed wiser than his party but he is handicapped by them.

Even the Green's new belligerence vis a-vis Russia seems a little like political opportunism and a guilty conscience on display after decades of fighting every demand for higher military spending.

The police are preparing for blackouts and Germans these days are not exactly a hardy bunch. I hope their resolve lasts the Winter but it will take longer to re-engineer the kind of warrior culture that would have Putin shaking in his boots and could truly protect the weaker nations of Europe from aggressors like Russia. We need America in this fight and the midterms threaten that.

Eh. I think that us germans are hardier than we know. We just haven't been tested in a while.

Besides, our biggest problem at the moment is that we are running out of gas storage space.

 

[mindlight]

Eh. I think that us germans are hardier than we know. We just haven't been tested in a while.

Besides, our biggest problem at the moment is that we are running out of gas storage space.

I truly hope you are right about German resilience, we have already made enormous financial sacrifices shifting away from Russian fossil fuels, but this Winter is the real test. With LNG terminals coming online and 95% gas storage maybe this is possible. Though acts of sabotage of key infrastructure could yet complicate things.

 

[Andrewn]

Ukraine updates: Russia fires missiles at cities — officials – DW – 10/31/2022

Live: 80% of Kyiv without water supply after Russian missile attack

 

[ValeriyK2022]

The prophet Isaiah called the main causes of war (as a punishment for public sins):
1) idolatry, magic and disbelief in God;
2) ritual murders of children (similar to abortions);
3) sexual debauchery;
4) when laws and the state do not protect the poor from the rich.
Unfortunately, all 4 cause are in Russia, and in Ukraine, and in Western countries.

The USSR during World War II softened a lot in these four areas. And then there was a turning point in the war and he won (albeit with heavy losses). If at least a part of the society of Ukraine or Russia repents, God will give victory to the repentant side.

As for the United States, to intercede for the weak is for mercy. So the United States in 1990 stood up for Kuwait.

Stronger countries do not have the right to seize weaker ones by force.

Russia voluntarily let go of Ukraine in 1991 so as not to share oil and gas revenues or for other reasons. Then Russia signed the Budapest Memorandum (Ukraine gives Russia nuclear weapons, and Russia, together with the United States, guarantees the inviolability of its borders). There is no justification for a military attack on Ukraine in 2022.

In unjust wars, as a rule, the victim of aggression wins. That's how it is arranged by God. Napoleon attacked and lost. Hitler attacked and lost. Saddam attacked and lost. Putin has attacked and must lose.

 

[Psalm 27]

Kiev pogroms (1919) - Wikipedia
The battle belongs to The Lord

 

[archer75]

Kiev pogroms (1919) - Wikipedia
The battle belongs to The Lord

What does this have to do with anything? Why are you mentioning atrocities committed by a political / military group that has not existed in a hundred years?