UK 2017 General Election: Brexit, Parliamentary Democracy and Political Opportunism

Genersis

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The UK Parliament today is going to vote to hold a General Election on the 8th of June this year.

Why is this happening?
On the 23rd of June 2016, the UK voted to leave the European Union in a non-binding referendum. There were many reason behind why people voted the way they did, but the reason the vote happened at all is because the governing Conservative Party's internal divisions on being in the EU.
The Eurosceptic wing threatening revolt if, then Prime Minister, David Cameron didn't place a referendum on membership in the 2015 election Conservative manifesto(basically a party platform).

I'm not going to go down the endless rabbit hole of the consequences of the Brexit vote, but to put it simply, who ever is in power during, and immediately after Brexit will have the power to completely reshape the UK(literally if Scotland votes to leave the UK to rejoin the EU).

The Prime Minister and their party would be able to keep, modify or throw out any piece of legislation that is remotely related to the EU.
Well at least, it would be that simple if it weren't for the fact that most of these changes would have to be voted on in parliament. While the Conservatives have a majority, it isn't a strong one, and Theresa May, our current Prime Minister, wants a parliament that can rubber stamp what ever legislation she wants.

On top of this, May has pledged that parliament will get a "meaningful vote" on the final Brexit deal with the EU near the end of the two year negotiating period(Though there could be an extension). May will want this deal to pass with minimal effort/scrutiny.

But you just there's still two(-ish) years before the UK actually leaves the EU. Why have the election now?
Jeremy Corbyn.
Current Labour Party leader and leader of Her Majesty's Opposition(the leader of the largest non-governing party).


After months of being backstabed by his own party, and vilified by the media, it's safe to say Labour has never had a less popular leader.(Though his policies are usually well received)
In turn, the Labour Party's support is similar to when Margret Thatcher won a landslide victory all those yonks ago. AKA historic lows.

Media sources suggested that Corbyn might of resigned if the local elections this May(the month) went badly. May(the person, sorry), want's a landslide and five years to do what ever she wants before dealing with another election.

So obviously the election must happen before Corbyn can resign. It's already too late for Labour to force him out and elect a new one through traditional means(they could pass emergency stuff to do it, but they almost certainly wont)

So this General Election is going to be all about Brexit right?
Yes and no.
No one's really sure how the parties will choose to campaign.
The Liberal Democrats will make it about Brexit.
Labour, probably not so much.
The Conservatives will definitely promote how great they've been and how awful everyone else is. They might claim they're the only party that can be trusted to deliver Brexit.

What do UK voters think this election should be about? Not Brexit according to a Yougov poll.

But then, voters are sick of Brexit...and politics in general:
Jon Kay on Twitter
(A very short relevant video on twitter)

"Liberal Democrats"? Who the heck are they?!
They're one of the many political parties in the UK, which I will get into in my next post.
 
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mindlight

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<<<Con:373 Lab:181 SNP:56 Lib:12 DUP:8 PC:5 SF:5 SLP:3 KIP:2 Grn:2 UUP:1 Ind:2>>

If that is the predicted result this will be a crushing defeat for the Labour party, good news for BREXIT negotiation as it will give May the mandate she needs to represent Britain and navigate her way between the extremes of hard BREXIT and BREXIT Lite in her own party.
 
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Genersis

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A Quick Summary of UK political Parties with Representation in the House of Commons:

Conservative and Unionist Party
Colour: Royal(ist) Blue
Leader: Theresa May(Prime Minister)
Seats: 330/650
US Functional Equivalent: Republican Party
US Policy Equivalent: Republican Party's leftwing
Brexit Stance: Probably Hard Brexit
Note: Almost always called the Conservative Party. Sometimes "the Tory Party"/"the Tories" in reference to their monarchist forerunner party.

Labour Party
Colour: Socialist Red
Leader: Jeremy Corbyn(Leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition)
Seats: 229/650
US Functional Equivalent: Democratic Party
US Policy Equivalent: Democratic Party in scope(Blairite's matching New Democrats), but more left wing in general.
Brexit Stance: Soft Brexit

Scottish National Party
Colour: Yellow, Black
Leader: Nicola Sturgeon
Seats: 54/650
US Functional Equivalent: None/Democratic Party?
US Policy Equivalent: Democratic Party(slightly left of Labour, at least in how it presents itself)
Brexit Stance: No Brexit or win independence referendum, leave UK and re-join EU.
Note: Only stands candidates in Scotland. Supplanted Labour as dominant Scottish party. Usually referred to as the SNP.
Recent History: Very popular and expected to take almost all of Scotland's 59 seats once more.

Liberal Democrats
Colour: Buff(Orange-yellow)
Leader: Tim Farron
Seats: 9/650
US Functional Equivalent: Democrats that sporadically side with Republicans on economics and forign policy
US Policy Equivalent: New Democrats?
Brexit Stance: No Brexit. Rejoin if/when possible.
Recent History: After being almost wiped out last election for forming a coalition government with the Conservatives, expected to make gains, if only due to Labour's unpopularity and the party's complete opposition to Brexit. Likely wont come close to a recovering it's 57 Seats from 2010.

Plaid Cymru(Party of Wales)
Colour: Wyrdd(Green)
Leader: Leanne Wood
Seats: 4/650
US Functional Equivalent: Left wing Democrats
US Policy Equivalent: Left wing Democrats
Brexit Stance: Soft Brexit
Note: Only stands candidates in Wales
Recent History: Not as successful as the SNP but still making slow modest gains over the years. Likely to gain a seat or two from Labour.

Green Party
Colour: Chartreuse(Green, duh)
Co Leaders:Caroline Lucas and Jonathan Bartley
Seats: 1/650
US Functional Equivalent: Bernie Sanders
US Policy Equivalent: Bernie Sanders with an ecological bend.
Brexit Stance: Soft Brexit
Note: Actually four parties. One in England and Wales, one in Scotland, and One in Northern Ireland. Very closely linked. Leaders listed here are for the largest England and Wales party.
Recent History: Gained the Brighton Pavilion seat in 2010, struggled to make gains since even with significant increases in vote share. Has had more success on local council elections. Might make a gain or two, again, at Labour's expense.

United Kingdom Independence Party
Colour: Magenta
Leader: Nigel Farage...no, sorry, some guy called Paul Nuttall?
Seats: 0/650(Sole MP left to become an independent)
US "Functional" Equivalent: Tea Party
US Policy Equivalent: Republican Party
Brexit Stance: Hard Brexit
Note: Name almost always shortened to UKIP.
Recent History: Struggling to find its way without the popular/unpopular Nigel Farage. May has largely stole its Eurosceptic thunder, leading much of its Conservative support to switch back.
Instead has targeted Labour voters of late(like most parties), as such, could make gains, but paradoxically, is in decline overall.

I'm going to skip on the North Irish Parties.
Not confident to comment on them. Their politics is very different, and sensitive.

A polling chart to give you an idea of the size and level of support for these parties:
Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png

(No Plaid Cymru, sorry)
It should be pointed out that % of support doesn't remotely correlate with seats won in parliament.
For more info, see

"Hard" Brexit? "Soft" Brexit?
Oh right.
The EU is built around the biggest single market in the world. Referred to as the "Single Market". A tariff free trade zone.
But a country doesn't need to be a full member of the EU to be in the single market(see: Norway)

The UK trades muchly with the EU, an awful lot.

So some parties figure it's a good idea to seek continued membership of the single market so prices don't shoot up on our imports and our export industry doesn't collapse and possibly lead to our whole economy going kaput.

This position is known as soft Brexit, but is deeply unpopular with many because it means the free movement of workers. Trade and workers are consider inseparable by the EU, the single market means freedom of both. Which means the government would not be able to place limits on the number of single market workers and students entering the country.

Hard Brexit, is ditching access to the single market, or have limited access, to prioritise limiting immigration from the single market.


I've tried not to be too opinionated. Feel free to ask for specific details.
I'll share opinions if asked.

I could describe how our elections work if someone wants me to.
As for now, I'll stop here.
 
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Genersis

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Ok, aren't the British people suffering some Brexit regret ? Is that not expected to effect the outcome in labor's favor to some extent ?
Not really.
Bregret, as it has been called, is a reoccurring myth from what I can tell.

The Conservatives have only gotten MORE popular since the Brexit vote.
UKIP is losing voters to it because of its apparent support for hard Brexit. But this seems to of been masked by voters ditching Labour for UKIP.

We're still in the EU, and we haven't felt too many consequences yet. So many people still think the whole thing is a great idea...or think Corbyn and Labour are too scary/incompetent. Regardless, things don't look like they're going to improve anytime soon.
 
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Genersis

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<<<Con:373 Lab:181 SNP:56 Lib:12 DUP:8 PC:5 SF:5 SLP:3 KIP:2 Grn:2 UUP:1 Ind:2>>

If that is the predicted result this will be a crushing defeat for the Labour party, good news for BREXIT negotiation as it will give May the mandate she needs to represent Britain and navigate her way between the extremes of hard BREXIT and BREXIT Lite in her own party.
If only seats accurately represented mandate.

I guess it depends on how gullible the people May is representing Britain to are.
Either that, or she can win people over by using the result to make endearing chit chat about how broken our electoral system is.
 
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mea kulpa

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I have only voted a couple of times in local or general elections. I am what some may call a swing voter... i have voted liberal democrat twice and ukip once (last general election) i have never voted for a mainstream party (labour or con)

I think mrs may is playing a dangerous game... one she is probably going to win. I live in a massive labour strong hold but have seen their position weaken with the rise of ukip. Basing labour strengh across the nation based on their strengh in a strong hold area... they have to be in a very weak position as i have never seen them so weak in my area in some places they have even lost to lib dems. However ukip who have been drawing the most vote from labour are in disaray and i can see their vote count taking a battering... the question is will those numbers revert back to labour in this labour strong hold area... obviously some will... but i think a large proportion wont...i think many will prehaps for the first time vote conservitive... i know i will be doing so for the first time this election.

If that happens in the north east (usually the first constituancy call of the night) labour will be in for a pasting and the conservitives in for a very good night.

Its obvious the leave voters will be vastly united in voting conservitive as you will see most ukippers backing and voting for the conservitives to ensure a clean break from the e.u and there is less need of the protest vote for ukip. So thats going to be a good chunk of 50% of the uk voters... voting conservitive. So there is no doubt the conservitives will carry the popular vote by far... but how that will equate in the first past the post system is anyones guess. Remain voters will be split beween snp, lib dem and labour... i can see lib dem who did awful last time out perhaps at a push all things favourable surpassing labour into 2nd (big ask) and becoming the opposition as they carry the remain hopes in england more than labour but wont make a dent in scotland which will remain snp.

The leftwing vote is so divided in the uk across ao many party platforms who all have weakness where the rightwing has never been so united or stronger for 30+ years.

If the conservitives do well and increase their voting figures in places like sunderland north (even though labour will still win sland north)... it will be a landslide... liberal democrat will be ones to watch to see what the swing vote to or from them will be because if labour votes slide it will be towards lib dem.
 
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mindlight

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If only seats accurately represented mandate.

I guess it depends on how gullible the people May is representing Britain to are.
Either that, or she can win people over by using the result to make endearing chit chat about how broken our electoral system is.

A strong majority means that May can compromise where that is in Britains interests and walk away from the table where it is not. If our best deal with Europe is going to be a hard BREXIT then it needs to be that without dissenting voices overthrowing the PM
 
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MoonlessNight

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I remember that the biggest controversies with this subforum used to be about how every thread absolutely, positively, needed to be entirely about how politics affected Catholicism.

Come back and one of the recent threads is by an atheist and does not mention Catholicism in any capacity whatsoever.

Well I'm sure glad that we had all those debates about what should and should not be allowed.
 
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