U.S. Coronavirus Highest Day Ever

[ThatRobGuy]

I think it would have made a significant difference if Trump and his administration (and foxnews) took the pandemic seriously, told the people it was deadly and highly contagious and promoted mask wearing and social distancing.

...but as I noted before, is there evidence to suggest that a particular media outlet can make their own "wing" do something just because they stress the importance of it?

If we look at it from a slightly different angle.

The places I had mentioned before: NYC, LA County, San Francisco, Chicago.

Safe to say those locales are more likely to be getting their news from left-leaning outlets (that were taking it seriously and stressing mask wearing and distancing) and there probably aren't a lot of loyal Fox News viewers in those areas, yes?

So if you have groups that are more likely to trust scientific consensus, more likely to get their news from outlets that also embrace scientific consensus, and have been stressing mask wearing/distancing/frequent hand watching/etc...

...and even they're not listening, is there any reason to believe that far-right wing folks (who, let's just be frank here, don't have the highest regard for scientific consensus based on other topics like climate change) would be any more persuaded to listen to scientific evidence presented by their network of choice?

If you can't get a left leaning demographic like 18-25s living in Cali, Chicago, and NYC to follow expert scientific advice presented to them by CNN, MSNBC, Salon, Young Turks...and even popular current and former politicians from their own party like Biden, Bernie, Obama, and Gavin Newsom... Do you really think far-right wing folks in deep red states are any more likely to adhere to those guidelines if coming from their network of Choice or their politicians?

If you can't get a group, that's already more inclined to embrace scientific consensus, to do it and stick to it, what are the chances that it'll work trying to do it for a group that's less inclined to accept/embrace scientific consensus?

 

[Searching1God]

And I feel so good in that knowledge.

Ok.

 

[Searching1God]

I don't blame them in terms of trying to chastise them, I say that their actions are largely to blame for being high vectors of transmission. (for lack of a better way of putting it)

What you're referring to is in-line with the Swedes' model for addressing it.

There is some evidence to suggest that their approach, more or less, doesn't make them significantly better or worse than their neighbors that implemented much stricter measures in terms of public health outcomes. One could make an argument that Sweden damaged their economy less than their neighbors though by never implementing a "hard shutdown"

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Their peak took slightly longer to taper down, but by the end of July, they're basically at the same place with their neighbors in terms of deaths, and likely have more people with some sort of short term immunity.

I just don't feel it is fair to force the younger generations to sacrifice years of their lives where their bodies and physical abilities are at their peak, for older folks. Not that older folks are not important, the question is, is it fair? Who made that decision for them? Certainly not them. Therefore they will continue to subvert the forced status quo every way they can.
I think there should have been a national dialogue and focus on exploring ways to protect the populations at risk without penalizing those not at risk. This one size fits all approach is not the best.

 

[essentialsaltes]

There is some evidence to suggest that their approach, more or less, doesn't make them significantly better or worse than their neighbors that implemented much stricter measures in terms of public health outcomes.

What might that evidence be? Because counting the dead bodies would seem to be a relevant public health outcome.

Sweden: 586 per M
Norway: 51 per M
Finland: 64 per M

 

[Pommer]

We are asking people in their 20s, the age when you want to be out there having fun, interracting and ENJOYING life in all its ways - speaking from experience here -, to sacrifice 2 years of their young lives, or however long this virus will last, to live in lockdown, forego social interraction and parties, all to save older folks...

Lemme tell you about this thing that my parents went through called World War II, (mine also had to deal with coming of age [they only HAD to go through school until the eighth grade] during the Great Depression)...sometimes the young have to eschew “living the good life” to survive to have some sort of life.
They’ll get over it, they always do, let us strive to get them through it with as little rancor as we can, shall we?

 

[stevil]

...but as I noted before, is there evidence to suggest that a particular media outlet can make their own "wing" do something just because they stress the importance of it?

Most Democratic supporters consider the pandemic to be deadly and highly contagious.
A large amount of Republican supporters consider the pandemic to be a hoax and no more deadly than the flu. They don't see the need for masks.
Why does this fall down party lines?

What are left wing and unbiased media saying about Covid?
What is Foxnews and far right wing media saying?
What is Trump saying?

 

[stevil]

If you can't get a left leaning demographic like 18-25s living in Cali, Chicago, and NYC to follow expert scientific advice presented to them by CNN, MSNBC, Salon, Young Turks...and even popular current and former politicians from their own party like Biden, Bernie, Obama, and Gavin Newsom... Do you really think far-right wing folks in deep red states are any more likely to adhere to those guidelines if coming from their network of Choice or their politicians?

I think you are dreaming if you think that left and right supporters in USA are taking a similar approach to dealing with this disease.

 

[MIDutch]

I don't blame them in terms of trying to chastise them, I say that their actions are largely to blame for being high vectors of transmission. (for lack of a better way of putting it)

What you're referring to is in-line with the Swedes' model for addressing it.

There is some evidence to suggest that their approach, more or less, doesn't make them significantly better or worse than their neighbors that implemented much stricter measures in terms of public health outcomes. One could make an argument that Sweden damaged their economy less than their neighbors though by never implementing a "hard shutdown"

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Their peak took slightly longer to taper down, but by the end of July, they're basically at the same place with their neighbors in terms of deaths, and likely have more people with some sort of short term immunity.

The left hand axis on your graphs disagree with you.

For Norway and Finland the numbers of deaths is in the tens, for Sweden it's in the hundreds.

IOW the "evidence" you posted clearly CONTRADICTS your conclusion that Sweden's COVID-19 response was "as good" as Norway's and Finland's.

 

[Halbhh]

Flu season deaths top 80,000 last year, CDC says - CNN

Flu killed 80,000 people this past season. Someone infected all of them

Flu deaths vary year to year.

So, to get an average level of flu deaths per year, we need to average together at least 10 years (or more).

As you can see below in the official CDC data (the latest best estimates), compared to your CNN article from 2018, the estimate for that season of 2017-2018 got revised/changed from 80,000 to 61,000 for the 2017-2018 season.

CDC -- Burden of Influenza

Also, if you average the 10 years in the link, you get about 36,000 flu deaths per year on average over the last 10 years.


So Covid 19 has already killed about 7 times as many people as an average flu year but in only ~ 9 months.

We have 3 months to go yet to get to a year of having Covid 19 in the U.S.

The virus is looking like it may end up with something closer to 10 times as many deaths as an average flu by the time a whole year has finished.

And that's in spite of the intense efforts to distance and slow the spread.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

The left hand axis on your graphs disagree with you.

For Norway and Finland the numbers of deaths is in the tens, for Sweden it's in the hundreds.

IOW the "evidence" you posted clearly CONTRADICTS your conclusion that Sweden's COVID-19 response was "as good" as Norway's and Finland's.

Actually, in the case of Sweden vs. Finland,

Sweden's peak had just over 100 per day, Finland had just under 50.

Finland has 5.5 million people, Sweden has 10.2 million.

So, adjusted for population sizes, it's not a stark contrast between Sweden and Finland.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

I think you are dreaming if you think that left and right supporters in USA are taking a similar approach to dealing with this disease.

Left and right wing leaders are taking different approaches in terms of mandates (many of which are tough to enforce). In terms of the people themselves, I don't see any evidence that one side can claim the high ground.

The gap (in all likelihood) exists between age demographics.

I showed pictures and articles... Chicago has had a rough go of it trying to enforce distancing measures while young people are throwing house parties packed with people. Same goes for CA and NYC.

If the divide was really across political lines, every deep blue area would be doing great, and every deep red area would be doing miserably. Instead, we see a situation where you can find some blue and red areas that are either doing good or bad.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Most Democratic supporters consider the pandemic to be deadly and highly contagious.
A large amount of Republican supporters consider the pandemic to be a hoax and no more deadly than the flu. They don't see the need for masks.
Why does this fall down party lines?

What are left wing and unbiased media saying about Covid?
What is Foxnews and far right wing media saying?
What is Trump saying?

Again, why don't the outcomes support that? I'd agree that in terms of politicians and media outlets, the left is taking it more seriously. But in terms of the people, if that were true, why are there any blue states that are worse off than red states?

Are the 3 republicans that live in San Fran sabotaging them? Are the house parties in Chicago (some of which had over 500 people all packed in like sardines) full of 18-25YO closeted Trump supporters?

All of the big raves and house parties they've busted in West Hollywood...they all just had MAGA-fever?

Obviously not... rhetoric is one thing, being able to convince people to go against human nature and instinct (which is not to be locked in isolation with no human contact for 6 months at a time) is an entirely different thing. Especially for younger demographics.

I'm sure every every democratic governor would tell you the policies they put in place would work, if they could actually get people to follow them.

Even the experts and unbiased media outlets are attributing the recent spike to what they call "covid fatigue"

You can get most people to adhere to a "15 days to flatten the curve" proposal
You can get over half of people to adhere to a 30-day lockdown
...if any governor thought that they'd be able to people cooped up for 6 months, and people wouldn't eventually say "eh, to heck with this, I'll take my chances", they lack a serious understanding of human psychology.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

What might that evidence be? Because counting the dead bodies would seem to be a relevant public health outcome.

Sweden: 586 per M
Norway: 51 per M
Finland: 64 per M

Right, as I noted, their taper down took longer...

They took the approach of actually considering countervailing interests...if you look at where they're at over the past 30 days, there's not a sharp contrast.

Sweden/Norway/Finland have all had under 5 deaths per day since July.

 

[stevil]

Again, why don't the outcomes support that? I'd agree that in terms of politicians and media outlets, the left is taking it more seriously. But in terms of the people, if that were true, why are there any blue states that are worse off than red states?

Just look at this forum.
People that are pro masks, pro social distancing tend to be not Trump supporters
People that are against masks, and are pro opening things up are always only Trump supporters

Are the 3 republicans that live in San Fran sabotaging them? Are the house parties in Chicago (some of which had over 500 people all packed in like sardines) full of 18-25YO closeted Trump supporters?

Are the borders of your states shut down? Is domestic air travel shut down?

Obviously not... rhetoric is one thing, being able to convince people to go against human nature and instinct (which is not to be locked in isolation with no human contact for 6 months at a time) is an entirely different thing. Especially for younger demographics.

If your country got on top of this disease you wouldn't have to shut down for 6 months.
NZ did it. We shut down for two months, that was all it took. We went hard, we went early.

I'm sure every every democratic governor would tell you the policies they put in place would work, if they could actually get people to follow them.

Some governors didn't put in policies to combat the pandemic.

Even the experts and unbiased media outlets are attributing the recent spike to what they call "covid fatigue"

If you went hard and fast, it wouldn't have gone of for 6 months.

 

[MIDutch]

Actually, in the case of Sweden vs. Finland,

Sweden's peak had just over 100 per day, Finland had just under 50.

Finland has 5.5 million people, Sweden has 10.2 million.

So, adjusted for population sizes, it's not a stark contrast between Sweden and Finland.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 43,756,039 Cases and 1,164,072 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Sweden has had a total of 5,933 deaths, Norway has had 279, Finland has had 354.

When adjusted for size Sweden had 586 deaths per million, Norway had 51 deaths per million, and Finland had 61.

I would say that is a pretty stark contrast.

 

[MIDutch]

Right, as I noted, their taper down took longer...

They took the approach of actually considering countervailing interests...if you look at where they're at over the past 30 days, there's not a sharp contrast.

Sweden/Norway/Finland have all had under 5 deaths per day since July.

You would have a point if Sweden's total death rate were only twice what it is for Finland since Sweden has two times Finland's population. Unfortunately for the people of Sweden their death rate was over 16 times that of Finland.

Hint: the shape of the curve means nothing when you look at the raw numbers.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

If your country got on top of this disease you wouldn't have to shut down for 6 months.
NZ did it. We shut down for two months, that was all it took. We went hard, we went early.

...and how does a country, that's a major international economic hub with 330 million people, do that?

It's easy for an island nation of 4 million people to go "hard and fast" by simply shutting down international travel and sheltering in place for 30 days.

"Taking it seriously" is more of a platitude in the way most people use the phrase.

Building a strategy for an Island Nation of 4 million people (which is less than half the size of our most populous county in the US for reference) that has a population density of 15 people per square kilometer, I think you'd admit, is easier than building a strategy for a major international economic hub with 330 million people...with cities like NYC, Chicago, and LA, that are so congested with people, that NZ has no proper equivalent to them.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Hint: the shape of the curve means nothing when you look at the raw numbers.

Sure it does, if any policy maker is willing to be honest enough about the aspect of considering countervailing interests.

If a person is the type of policy maker that would sacrifice the employment of tens of millions to save the lives of thousands (most of which were in high risk groups or already quite elderly), then sure, Sweden's total death count may look way worse.

It's not a fun thing to talk about, but if you're worth your salt as a policy maker at a federal level, it's the kind of tough decision you have to consider when weighing out countervailing interests.

 

[MIDutch]

If a person is the type of policy maker that would sacrifice the employment of tens of millions to save the lives of thousands (most of which were in high risk groups or already quite elderly), then sure, Sweden's total death count may look way worse.

Well, now we certainly know where your priorities lie (and it certainly isn't with human life).

 

[essentialsaltes]

If the divide was really across political lines, every deep blue area would be doing great, and every deep red area would be doing miserably. Instead, we see a situation where you can find some blue and red areas that are either doing good or bad.

Obviously even in the deepest of blues and reds, it's never monolithic, and neither does it perfectly align with mask/antimask, and as I said long ago, the virus doesn't care about politics, but recent results show a surprising degree of correlation.

Places with highest daily reported cases per capita
7-day rolling average of daily new reported cases per 100,000 residents [and Trump vote margin]

ND +36
SD +30
WI +1
MT +20
WY +46
ID +32
UT +18
NE +25
AK +28
IA +9
...
and at the tail end
MD -26
CA -30
OR -11
WA -16
DC -88
NY -22
NH -0.4
HI -32
VT -26
ME -3

The top ten plague spots at the moment all voted for Trump, most of them with double digit margins.
The bottom ten all voted for HRC, most of them with double digit margins.