Turkish troops moving into Syria

[mindlight]

Turkey launches Syria offensive with air strikes

Really angry about this selling out of a good a reliable ally to the West. Must we alienate everybody we call friends. Aside from the Jews the Kurds are probably the most deserving people in the Middle East to secure their own nation.

So did Trump know that Erdogan was going to do this? I understand America wanting its troops out but I do hope that at very least America will make good on its promises of economic sanctions.

 

[Basil the Great]

If the Turks were to attack the Kurds in a major way, then Trump Presidency would forever be tarnished and considered a failure in foreign affairs.

 

[Silverback]

Turkey launches Syria offensive with air strikes

Really angry about this selling out of a good a reliable ally to the West. Must we alienate everybody we call friends. Aside from the Jews the Kurds are probably the most deserving people in the Middle East to secure their own nation.

So did Trump know that Erdogan was going to do this? I understand America wanting its troops out but I do hope that at very least America will make good on its promises of economic sanctions.

Turkey has been engaged in a decades long insurgency with the Kurds living in there country. These Kurds receive safe haven and support in Kurdish areas of Syria, and Iraq which border Turkey. Personally speaking, I don't blame Turkey, since the problems in Syria are spilling over the border.

There are problems though, The Kurds have stood with us since the start of the Iraq War in 2003, and in the fight against the Islamic State, and have paid a high cost in blood and coin.

However, Turkey is a NATO Ally (a lousy ally) so we can't really oppose them, considering their valid issues with the Kurdish Insurgency, which goes on year, after year.

The other outliers are Russia, who is actively supporting the Syrian Regime with air strikes and troops on the ground, and Iran who is also supporting Damascus, and is routinely bombing the Syrian Rebels and other targets they deem necessary.

Then there is Israel, who will do whatever they feel they must in order to protect their nation and safeguard their way of life.

I'm not so sure we will pull out of Syria completely, I would like to believe we will not abandon the fight against the Islamic State, nor give Turkey a licence to rape, pillage, and murder. It is also possible that we could just shift to Northern Iraq. Additionally, we could also do a lot from off shore using US Sixth Fleet Units for air strikes, and Naval Gunfire Support.

How Lebanon, which harbors Hezbollah will react is unknown, same goes for Hamas, and the rest. Hopefully, they will not be so foolish as to try to take advantage of the situation and stab Israel in the back.

Would our NATO Allies continue to strike the Islamic State if the US pulls out completely, and heads home...I don't think so, nor will they put troops on the ground to replace ours, even though France, Italy, and the UK have the ability to do so.

So we shall see, it could be interesting!

 

[mindlight]

If the Turks were to attack the Kurds in a major way, then Trump Presidency would forever be tarnished and considered a failure in foreign affairs.

The Turks have made no secret of their intention to wipe out the YPG which they regard as the terrorist arm of the banned PKK. There is a Marxist element to the Kurdish resistance fighters which the West should be wary of but overall they have a very strong case for independence, by virtue of numbers, of oppression and persecution and because of how they have protected the church and others in the places they have conquered. Trump ahs qualified his economic threats to Turkey with "if it becomes necessary". This to me indicates prior knowledge and tacit consent for this Turkish action.

Turkey wants to dump the 3.6 million refugees it has been hosting back in the most fertile area of Syria on its Northern border under Turkish control. If they succeed in this project ultimately we are looking at a new Ottoman protectorate of the bread basket of Syria and source of much of Syrias water. Many of the more Nationalistic and Islamist advisors of the president undoubtedly see this as an opportunity to extent Turkish hegemony in the region, solve the Kurdish problem and dump the refugees back in Syria

 

[Silverback]

The Turks have made no secret of their intention to wipe out the YPG which they regard as the terrorist arm of the banned PKK. There is a Marxist element to the Kurdish resistance fighters which the West should be wary of but overall they have a very strong case for independence, by virtue of numbers, of oppression and persecution and because of how they have protected the church and others in the places they have conquered. Trump ahs qualified his economic threats to Turkey with "if it becomes necessary". This to me indicates prior knowledge and tacit consent for this Turkish action.

Turkey wants to dump the 3.6 million refugees it has been hosting back in the most fertile area of Syria on its Northern border under Turkish control. If they succeed in this project ultimately we are looking at a new Ottoman protectorate of the bread basket of Syria and source of much of Syrias water. Many of the more Nationalistic and Islamist advisors of the president undoubtedly see this as an opportunity to extent Turkish hegemony in the region, solve the Kurdish problem and dump the refugees back in Syria

Agreed

 

[Basil the Great]

The Turks have made no secret of their intention to wipe out the YPG which they regard as the terrorist arm of the banned PKK. There is a Marxist element to the Kurdish resistance fighters which the West should be wary of but overall they have a very strong case for independence, by virtue of numbers, of oppression and persecution and because of how they have protected the church and others in the places they have conquered. Trump ahs qualified his economic threats to Turkey with "if it becomes necessary". This to me indicates prior knowledge and tacit consent for this Turkish action.

Turkey wants to dump the 3.6 million refugees it has been hosting back in the most fertile area of Syria on its Northern border under Turkish control. If they succeed in this project ultimately we are looking at a new Ottoman protectorate of the bread basket of Syria and source of much of Syrias water. Many of the more Nationalistic and Islamist advisors of the president undoubtedly see this as an opportunity to extent Turkish hegemony in the region, solve the Kurdish problem and dump the refugees back in Syria

Would NATO stand for such a move?

 

[Nithavela]

If the Turks were to attack the Kurds in a major way, then Trump Presidency would forever be tarnished and considered a failure in foreign affairs.

You sure? He promised to strike against their economy with his unmatched wisdom.

 

[Basil the Great]

Yes, but somehow that will not do much good if many lives are lost.

 

[Nithavela]

Would NATO stand for such a move?

You mean the organisation that Turkey is a member of?

 

[Nithavela]

Yes, but somehow that will not do much good if many lives are lost.

Face it: The USA left the Kurds to die, and now they are dying.

 

[SoldierOfTheKing]

Really angry about this selling out of a good a reliable ally to the West. Must we alienate everybody we call friends. Aside from the Jews the Kurds are probably the most deserving people in the Middle East to secure their own nation.

I condemn Turkey's violation of Syrian airspace, but this is for Assad and Putin to handle.

So did Trump know that Erdogan was going to do this? I understand America wanting its troops out but I do hope that at very least America will make good on its promises of economic sanctions.

The President didn't specify precisely what conditions under which he would back sanctions. He'd need the support of the Europeans for the sanctions to be effective anyway.

 

[mindlight]

Turkey has been engaged in a decades long insurgency with the Kurds living in there country. These Kurds receive safe haven and support in Kurdish areas of Syria, and Iraq which border Turkey. Personally speaking, I don't blame Turkey, since the problems in Syria are spilling over the border.

There are problems though, The Kurds have stood with us since the start of the Iraq War in 2003, and in the fight against the Islamic State, and have paid a high cost in blood and coin.

I do not like terrorists generally having been brought up in the UK during the IRA era when even going to a supermarket could cost you your life and there were regular bomb threats against our school. The YPG as a Marxist guerrilla organisation within the borders of the Turkish sovereign state is not an attractive ally. But the Kurds in North Iraq and the SDF fighters against Daesh did the whole world a favour in the way they handled ISIS. We ( and I include the British and Germans in that) befriended them and provided air strike support and special forces help. The Germans supplied the Kurds with essential supplies by air also. To some extent the Kurds are already managing their own state in Northern Syria and Iraq and the Turks real goal is to smash that state and to replace it with Turkish hegemony in the region. So this is no longer just a Terrorist threat to Turkey this is effectively an invasion of lands which the Kurds now call their hard won homes.

However, Turkey is a NATO Ally (a lousy ally) so we can't really oppose them, considering their valid issues with the Kurdish Insurgency, which goes on year, after year.

Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, indeed the invention of ICBMs and global range bombers and drones I really do not know why we think we need Turkey so much as an ally. They were hoped to be a conduit of Western civilisation into the region instead they are becoming an Islamist and nationalistic force on the lines of the old Ottomans. The Kurds by contrast fought with us to achieve our goals of the elimination of Baathism and Daesh while the Turks scowled from the sidelines.

The other outliers are Russia, who is actively supporting the Syrian Regime with troops on the ground, and Iran who is also supporting Damascus, and is routinely bombing the Syrian Rebels and other targets they deem necessary.

So the predominantly Sunni Kurds provide a buffer between a pro Shia regime in Damascus, an Iraq dominated by Shias and Shia Iran. The Russians are ultimately seeking to use this Shia corridor possibility as a lever into the region. Turkey is also Sunni and I cannot imagine the Russians are overjoyed to see a Turkish counterbalance to their favourite Assad in the country. They would prefer to see the government smash the SDF completing the corridor and providing an alternate route for oil to flow to the Med via Shia pipelines thus counterbalancing Saudi power in the region.

Then there is Israel, who will do whatever they feel they must in order to protect their nation and way safeguard their way of life.

And we should help them in that. But I do think that the value of a weak, divided and chaotic Syria to Israels security interests is past its sale by date now. Now we want peace , a balance of powers and maybe a division of Syria between the government and the SDF could be a part of that to keep the country weak. If the Turks weaken the SDF too much then the Russo/Iranian backed government forces will seize the rest of Syria back and that is not in Israels interest.

I'm not so sure we will pull out of Syria completely, I would like to believe we will not abandon the fight against the Islamic State, nor give Turkey a licence to rape, pillage, and murder. It is also possible that we could just shift to Northern Iraq.
Additionally, we could also do a lot from off shore using US Sixth Fleet Units for airstrikes, and Naval Gunfire Support.

How Lebanon, which harbors Hezbollah will react is unknown, same goes for Hamas, and the rest. Hopefully, they will not be so foolish as to try to take advantage of the situation and stab Israel in the back.

Would our NATO Allies continue to strike the Islamic State if the US pulls out completely, and heads home...I don't think so, nor will they put troops on the ground to replace ours, even though France, Italy, and the UK have the ability to do so.I

So we shall, it could be interesting!

I wish the UK was not so preoccupied with BREXIT. It is like we have just switched off from International politics the last 3 years and major things have been happening. But as you say we do have a power projection capability of our own. It is one we prefer to use in coordination with the Americans however. The kind of interventions that may be necessary are yet to be clarified. I just hope this Turkish invasion does not overturn the move towards peace and a precarious balance of forces that has been occurring these last few years.

 

[mindlight]

Face it: The USA left the Kurds to die, and now they are dying.

Looks like Trump has made some kind of deal with Erdogan and believes that the Turkish intervention allows for a withdrawal of American troops and the deserting of its Kurdish allies. But popular opinion and military opinion is very supportive of the Kurds as the resignation of Matthis last year showed. Trump might regret poking this hornets nest in an election year.

 

[Albion]

The Turks have made no secret of their intention to wipe out the YPG which they regard as the terrorist arm of the banned PKK. There is a Marxist element to the Kurdish resistance fighters which the West should be wary of but overall they have a very strong case for independence, by virtue of numbers, of oppression and persecution and because of how they have protected the church and others in the places they have conquered.

But surely we are not obliged to be there in order to establish or preserve Kurdish independence!?

 

[Speedwell]

But surely we are not obliged to be there in order to establish or preserve Kurdish independence!?

But do we want the Kurds throwing in with Assad and Putin against Turkey?

 

[mindlight]

But surely we are not obliged to be there in order to insure Kurdish independence!?

American soldiers have fought side by side with Peshmerga and SDF forces for much of the last decade. The question is what value does America now attach to that friendship and the considerable blood and coin sacrificed to make it work? Walking away from a quagmire of endless war is one thing, withdrawing all support from the people you leave behind is another. Also there are real geopolitical threats in this decision which by weakening the SDF could allow the Syrian government to smash them in the South and to establish a Shia corridor from Iran to the Med.

 

[mindlight]

But do we want the Kurds throwing in with Assad and Putin against Turkey?

THat would be a hard pill for many Kurds to swallow but if the alternative is fighting on 4 fronts against Iran, Russia, Turkey and the Syrian government then what other choice do they have?

 

[mindlight]

Would NATO stand for such a move?

This is a NATO nation moving aggressively against what until recently were the allies of another NATO nation. Not sure Article 5 really covers this.

 

[Nithavela]

But do we want the Kurds throwing in with Assad and Putin against Turkey?

Don't forget Iran.

 

[dqhall]

Looks like Trump has made some kind of deal with Erdogan and believes that the Turkish intervention allows for a withdrawal of American troops and the deserting of its Kurdish allies. But popular opinion and military opinion is very supportive of the Kurds as the resignation of Matthis last year showed. Trump might regret poking this hornets nest in an election year.

The Kurds supported the US fight against ISIS. Trump does not want to help them as Turkey launches its assault. Trump has a conflict of interest in Istanbul: a Trump Towers office, residential and shopping complex.