...
if he wins re-election
Trump pledged to permanently scrap the payroll taxes used to fund Social Security and Medicare if he wins re-election
Here's a winner - hey senior voters, I'm going to defund your retirement and health care.
If that is his plan, he's banking on the fact that many senior conservative voters aren't going to be terribly put off by this because cutting off funding for things now won't impact them negatively, it'll impact the groups that would start collecting it in about 10-15 years.
According to AARP, the current social security funds has the cash reserves to go through about 2035. At that point, the cash reserves would be exhausted, and the only funding they have would be the funding coming in via the Social Security tax.
If you have a staunch conservative voter that's 65-75 years of age, and despises democrats more than they care about the nation's current 50-55 year olds, this move is unlikely to move them from their current position.
This
could hurt him with his middle-aged voter base. *Unless*, they view as something that'll be only temporary and that whoever his successor is will simply re-instate it...or they simply underestimate just how much they would need to count on social security in their retirement years. In a perfect world, people could/would adequately plan for their own retirement via their own private investments, 401k, etc... But for about 25% of the population, that's simply not an option due their current income:expense situation.
In that scenario, I can totally see a staunch conservatives (younger than 50) being okay with pausing social security funding for 4 years in order to give Trump 4 more years in office.
Political polarization makes people embrace some very short-sighted ideas.
As idiotic as this move sounds on the surface (pragmatically/economically speaking, it is idiotic...I'm strictly referring to voter retention strategies here), it'd probably only hurt him with conservatives making < $40k/year, who are in the 45-55 year age range.