Trump Leads Clinton in Latest Poll!

[Thursday]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/trump_41_clinton_39

 

[Winken]

Good.

 

[revanneosl]

She's going to mop the floor with him.

 

[HarvestTheFields]

She's going to mop the floor with him.

Yep, I'm extremely skeptical of this report.

 

[AvilaSurfer]

I've never been a Trump supporter. But I guarantee he won't make the same mistakes Romney did. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins 45 states.

 

[4x4toy]

I feel sorry for Hillary , she's gonna get crushed and she's gonna love it

 

[Autumnleaf]

He's a dynamo of energy. She's going to need ACORN to rig the votes.

 

[Archivist]

The only poll that matters is the one that will take place on Election Day in November.

 

[Kersh]

No matter who wins between them, America will lose.

 

[2Timothy2:15]

Psalm 146:3 Don’t put your confidence in powerful people; there is no help for you there.

Psalm 118:9 It is better to take refuge in the LORD than to trust in princes.

Isaiah 31:1-3 What sorrow awaits those who look to Egypt for help, trusting their horses, chariots, and charioteers and depending on the strength of human armies instead of looking to the LORD, the Holy One of Israel. In his wisdom, the LORD will send great disaster; he will not change his mind. He will rise against the wicked and against their helpers. For these Egyptians are mere humans, not God! Their horses are puny flesh, not mighty spirits! When the LORD raises his fist against them, those who help will stumble, and those being helped will fall. They will all fall down and die together.

 

[revanneosl]

The really exhausting thing is explaining to newbies every four years that national political opinion polls don't matter because the presidency isn't awarded by a national popular vote. My dad taught High School social studies for 26 years. I wish he were still alive so that I could express to him my admiration for his perseverance in explaining the electoral college over and over and over again year after year. I get annoyed having to do it on the internet, but he had to do it live and in person.

 

[Kersh]

The really exhausting thing is explaining to newbies every four years that national political opinion polls don't matter because the presidency isn't awarded by a national popular vote. My dad taught High School social studies for 26 years. I wish he were still alive so that I could express to him my admiration for his perseverance in explaining the electoral college over and over and over again year after year. I get annoyed having to do it on the internet, but he had to do it live and in person.

Theoretically, one candidate could have landslide wins in the states that they win and narrow losses in the states that they lose. In such a scenario, there could be a significant disparity between the popular vote and electoral result. But, it is far more likely that the electoral result will reflect the popular vote. The rare exceptions typically occur in very close elections (such as 2000). So, national polls are an okay (not great) way to get an idea of what might happen in November.

 

[revanneosl]

No they're not. A much more accurate picture is gained by looking at which states have been solid (R) or (D) for, let's say, the last 30 years, and then looking at the statewide polling in the swing states.

 

[seashale76]

The only poll that matters is the one that will take place on Election Day in November.

And I can only hope all of the Republicans (and there's a lot of them) that (rightly) can't stand Donald Trump and all of the disaffected Democrats (that love Sanders but can't stand Clinton- and there will be a lot of them too) will use their vote and vote third party.

Johnson/Wells, 2016

 

[ViaCrucis]

It would be historically significant if we could manage to get a third party candidate in the white house. I think that would be good in and of itself, if we could demonstrate that we don't have to be chained to our current two party system. It's happened before, but it's been like 150 years since the last time it happened.

Though it really does boil down to the state electors, and I very much doubt most of them have much interest in departing from the status quo.

-CryptoLutheran

 

[Creech]

No they're not. A much more accurate picture is gained by looking at which states have been solid (R) or (D) for, let's say, the last 30 years, and then looking at the statewide polling in the swing states.

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/ps05102016_Sw4b42d.pdf

With Trump and Hillary running almost dead-even in the swing states, looks like Hillary will have a tougher time than your post #3 suggests. A lot can change in a short amount of time, so we will have to wait and see.

 

[mindlight]

It would be historically significant if we could manage to get a third party candidate in the white house. I think that would be good in and of itself, if we could demonstrate that we don't have to be chained to our current two party system. It's happened before, but it's been like 150 years since the last time it happened.

Though it really does boil down to the state electors, and I very much doubt most of them have much interest in departing from the status quo.

-CryptoLutheran

http://www.wsj.com/articles/third-party-candidates-see-opportunity-in-presidential-race-1464311703

 

[tulc]

it's cute how people think something that can change in an hour or less has some sort of significance.
tulc(not a big fan of polls)

 

[aieyiamfu]

It would be historically significant if we could manage to get a third party candidate in the white house. I think that would be good in and of itself, if we could demonstrate that we don't have to be chained to our current two party system. It's happened before, but it's been like 150 years since the last time it happened.

Though it really does boil down to the state electors, and I very much doubt most of them have much interest in departing from the status quo.

-CryptoLutheran

It is basically impossible for a third party candidate to get elected. Gotta get rid of the electoral college. It really is time for a constitutional convention.