Trump and economy

[createdtoworship]

The economy seems to be chugging along at it's usual 2% ish clip actually.

The stock market is pricing in policies that have yet to actually materialize, so what you are seeing is the power of optimism.

optimism is always to play for outperforming stocks. That we already know.

 

[variant]

everything trump stands for is good for GDP, from jobs forecast to unemployement, to stocks, the whole economy looks better under trump.

Under President Trump The US GDP Surpasses $19 Trillion For The First Time Ever

Regardless, nothing has changed as of yet.

 

[Maren]

november 4 of 2008 obama took office. That means that the entire fall in GDP was in his full term. So to say it was up every year is wrong, in fact two of those years was barely break even, if you average it.

As was pointed out to you, while the election was in November of 2008, Obama did not take office until January 20, 2009. Since Obama did not serve the entire year of 2009, that isn't one of the years that counted.

The important point is that Obama had seven straight years of GDP growth, after his first year trying to recover from the housing crisis. While the growth of the GDP fluctuated those years, it was a slow but steady growth. The growth so far this year is little different than the growth during the Obama years. While things could change, there has been no real change in GDP growth under Trump, and little in terms of signs that it is going to happen. This also appears to be true with pretty much any economic growth indicator you look at, the growth rates are similar to those under Obama.

Having said that, one of the most laughable is how Trump is talking about how great employment is, since it is roughly the same as it was under Obama. The only difference is that Trump is no longer talking about the uncounted unemployed -- those that had unemployment benefits run out and/or quit looking for work -- like he did all through the election. He, instead, talks about how low the unemployment numbers and how great he's done (even though he hasn't really done anything, other than stop the federal government from hiring). So, he claimed we had a real unemployment rate of 20% before the election but brags about his great economy and the low federal employment rates now, despite the fact that there has been no huge surge in employment.

 

[lasthero]

As was pointed out to you, while the election was in November of 2008, Obama did not take office until January 20, 2009. Since Obama did not serve the entire year of 2009, that isn't one of the years that counted.

The important point is that Obama had seven straight years of GDP growth, after his first year trying to recover from the housing crisis. While the growth of the GDP fluctuated those years, it was a slow but steady growth. The growth so far this year is little different than the growth during the Obama years. While things could change, there has been no real change in GDP growth under Trump, and little in terms of signs that it is going to happen. This also appears to be true with pretty much any economic growth indicator you look at, the growth rates are similar to those under Obama.

Having said that, one of the most laughable is how Trump is talking about how great employment is, since it is roughly the same as it was under Obama. The only difference is that Trump is no longer talking about the uncounted unemployed -- those that had unemployment benefits run out and/or quit looking for work -- like he did all through the election. He, instead, talks about how low the unemployment numbers and how great he's done (even though he hasn't really done anything, other than stop the federal government from hiring). So, he claimed we had a real unemployment rate of 20% before the election but brags about his great economy and the low federal employment rates now, despite the fact that there has been no huge surge in employment.

Nail on the head.

US Unemployment Rate

The chart shows it clear. Yeah, unemployment is low, but it's been lowering for a while now.

 

[createdtoworship]

As was pointed out to you, while the election was in November of 2008, Obama did not take office until January 20, 2009. Since Obama did not serve the entire year of 2009, that isn't one of the years that counted.

The important point is that Obama had seven straight years of GDP growth, after his first year trying to recover from the housing crisis. While the growth of the GDP fluctuated those years, it was a slow but steady growth. The growth so far this year is little different than the growth during the Obama years. While things could change, there has been no real change in GDP growth under Trump, and little in terms of signs that it is going to happen. This also appears to be true with pretty much any economic growth indicator you look at, the growth rates are similar to those under Obama.

Having said that, one of the most laughable is how Trump is talking about how great employment is, since it is roughly the same as it was under Obama. The only difference is that Trump is no longer talking about the uncounted unemployed -- those that had unemployment benefits run out and/or quit looking for work -- like he did all through the election. He, instead, talks about how low the unemployment numbers and how great he's done (even though he hasn't really done anything, other than stop the federal government from hiring). So, he claimed we had a real unemployment rate of 20% before the election but brags about his great economy and the low federal employment rates now, despite the fact that there has been no huge surge in employment.

close enough, 20 days is nothing. I like your strategy. Obama not to blame for the housing crisis even though it happened in his term, and obama gets all the stock rise of the trump administration even when out of office. Nice logic there.

 

[EpiscipalMe]

close enough, 20 days is nothing. I like your strategy. Obama not to blame for the housing crisis even though it happened in his term, and obama gets all the stock rise of the trump administration even when out of office. Nice logic there.

The housing crisis hit before Obama took office. Bush started the clean up and Obama continued it.

https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/subprime_mortgage_crisis

 

[createdtoworship]

The housing crisis hit before Obama took office. Bush started the clean up and Obama continued it.

https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/subprime_mortgage_crisis

not the main wave of it.

 

[EpiscipalMe]

not the main wave of it.

What do you mean the "main wave?"

Housing prices had collapsed, Lehman Brothers was bankrupt, AIG was bailed out, JP Morgan bought Bear Stearns, and TARP was passed all before Obama took office.

Maybe it was still spreading globally, but the damage to the US economy had been done. I'm not saying it was Bush's fault - it wasn't - but it all happened before Obama was inaugurated.

 

[Maren]

close enough, 20 days is nothing. I like your strategy. Obama not to blame for the housing crisis even though it happened in his term, and obama gets all the stock rise of the trump administration even when out of office. Nice logic there.

As others have pointed out, the housing crisis did not start during Obama's term -- it started in 2007. In fact, it was Bush that pushed through Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, the bill that was to bailout the banks and help to provide debt relief for some homeowners caught in the housing crisis.

Not quite sure why Obama would be blamed when this all started over a year before he took office, and the first bailout was passed and signed before the 2008 election (it was enacted October 3, 2008). Yes, when Obama took office, there was a recession, that started before Obama took office, because of the housing crisis, which had started over a year before -- and Obama had to deal with getting the country out of the recession.

BTW, I'm not claiming Obama is responsible for the rise in the stock market, I think the effect of the President alone on the market is limited, merely that the rate of growth is essentially unchanged, compared to the prior 6 years.

 

[Rion]

If the Obama fans could make dubious claims about how he helped the economy, then it's fair to let Trump fans to do the same, imo.

 

[createdtoworship]

What do you mean the "main wave?"

Housing prices had collapsed, Lehman Brothers was bankrupt, AIG was bailed out, JP Morgan bought Bear Stearns, and TARP was passed all before Obama took office.

Maybe it was still spreading globally, but the damage to the US economy had been done. I'm not saying it was Bush's fault - it wasn't - but it all happened before Obama was inaugurated.

 

[EpiscipalMe]

View attachment 203117

I do not get your point. The market plummeted in the final year / months of the Bush presidency. Then, it went down a little bit more in the first 2 months of the Obama presidency and then started a gradual rise, surpassing pre-recession levels, and that trend continues now.

The vast majority of the money lost in the market happened before Obama and the wheels were certainly in motion before he was even elected. The major events that set off the recession and started the downward spiral (housing bubble collapse, AIG bailout, Bear Stearns buyout, Lehman Brothers failure) all occurred before Obama. There is no way you can lay the blame on him.

 

[createdtoworship]

As others have pointed out, the housing crisis did not start during Obama's term -- it started in 2007. In fact, it was Bush that pushed through Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, the bill that was to bailout the banks and help to provide debt relief for some homeowners caught in the housing crisis.

Not quite sure why Obama would be blamed when this all started over a year before he took office, and the first bailout was passed and signed before the 2008 election (it was enacted October 3, 2008). Yes, when Obama took office, there was a recession, that started before Obama took office, because of the housing crisis, which had started over a year before -- and Obama had to deal with getting the country out of the recession.

BTW, I'm not claiming Obama is responsible for the rise in the stock market, I think the effect of the President alone on the market is limited, merely that the rate of growth is essentially unchanged, compared to the prior 6 years.

I know but look at this:

 

[createdtoworship]

I do not get your point. The market plummeted in the final year / months of the Bush presidency. Then, it went down a little bit more in the first 2 months of the Obama presidency and then started a gradual rise, surpassing pre-recession levels, and that trend continues now.

The vast majority of the money lost in the market happened before Obama and the wheels were certainly in motion before he was even elected. The major events that set off the recession and started the downward spiral (housing bubble collapse, AIG bailout, Bear Stearns buyout, Lehman Brothers failure) all occurred before Obama. There is no way you can lay the blame on him.

the lowest point in almost twenty years of the sp500, in obama administration, the highest bull run ever, in the trump administration. What is there to figure out?

 

[createdtoworship]

if obama was good for the economy , then when he left there would be no more hope of quantative easing in a crisis, the market should go down at that point, yet it made higher highs for 30 plus weeks!

 

[Desk trauma]

the lowest point in almost twenty years of the sp500, in obama administration, the highest bull run ever, in the trump administration. What is there to figure out?

View attachment 203121

That neither administration is responsible for how the market behaved.

 

[EpiscipalMe]

if obama was good for the economy , then when he left there would be no more hope of quantative easing in a crisis, the market should go down at that point, yet it made higher highs for 30 plus weeks!

Or, the president has little effect on the markets.

 

[bhsmte]

Or, the president has little effect on the markets.

That has been the reality all along.

 

[Maren]

I know but look at this:

View attachment 203118

Which doesn't contradict anything I stated. Yes, the stock market continued to decline, as we were in a recession, in the first couple of months of Obama's presidency -- despite the temporary increases right after he was elected. This contrasts nicely with the temporary fall right after Trump was elected (as you can see in your chart).

As for it now being the highest, it was the highest it had ever been when Obama left office. That is the way it works when you have steady, sustained growth in the stock market over seven years, you keep getting new "record highs" as the stock market keeps going up. It in no way shows that this is not part of the sustained growth that started early in the Obama administration.

 

[createdtoworship]

Which doesn't contradict anything I stated. Yes, the stock market continued to decline, as we were in a recession, in the first couple of months of Obama's presidency -- despite the temporary increases right after he was elected. This contrasts nicely with the temporary fall right after Trump was elected (as you can see in your chart).

As for it now being the highest, it was the highest it had ever been when Obama left office. That is the way it works when you have steady, sustained growth in the stock market over seven years, you keep getting new "record highs" as the stock market keeps going up. It in no way shows that this is not part of the sustained growth that started early in the Obama administration.

We can agree to disagree here.