Think of it as a hole in one. If I hit the golf ball, what are the odds of it going straight into the cup? Probably pretty small. But that's starting from the tee (golf aficionados, please forgive my no doubt incorrect use of the terminology!).
But let's say I move closer to the hole. Now, I have an improved chance of getting a hole in one, don't I? It may still be a small chance, but it has nonetheless improved. Let's say I keep moving closer and closer to the hole. As I get closer, my chances of making a hole in one keep getting better. And when the ball is sitting on the edge of the hole, my chances of getting a hole in one are just about certain.
And yet, the hole in one is ALWAYS going to be a yes/no option. Either I get a hole in one or I don't. But the chances of getting it keep increasing. My potential for achieving the hole in one increases as I get closer. There's no magical distance where I have a 0% potential of a hole in one and then an extra step gives me a 100% potential for a hole in one.
If I am at a point where I have a 50% potential for a hole in one, I'll find that I generally get holes in one half the time, but the other half of the time I miss and the ball doesn't go in.
Likewise, the genetic compatibility is different over two individuals separated by many generations. The fewer generations between the two individuals, the greater the chance of genetic compatibility, even though the production of a fertile offspring is a yes or no thing.
Do you understand the golf analogy?
Of course I understand the golf analogy.
My question is: When the first individual was born that produces gametes that can produce a fertile, viable offspring with human gametes how can a fertile, viable offspring birth be expressed as a percentage other than 0% (no fertile, viable offspring) or 100% (a fertile, viable offspring)?
Your answer: Just like the percent chance of making a hole-in-one in golf.
The percent chance of making a hole-in-one is analogous to the percent chance of two gametes finding each other, producing a zygote, and resulting in a fertile, viable offspring. We've already covered this ground and you're right, when two individuals that produce compatible gametes have sex there are many things that reduce chance of producing a fertile, viable offspring.
What I'm talking about is much more specific. We've established that a first individual that produces human compatible gametes was birthed. How can gamete compatibility be expressed as a percentage of compatibility when the only two possible outcomes of a gamete union is a fertile, viable offspring or anything but? The answer can only be 100% or 0%. The two gametes either produce a fertile, viable offspring or they do not. It's nonsensical to say two gametes can produce a 32% fertile, viable offspring.
When that first individual was birthed it produced 100% human compatible gametes AND 100% compatible gametes with it's contemporaries. It's contemporaries produced 0% compatible gametes with humans. It follows that there was an individual born that produced two different gametes.
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