This info was mainstream news in past and should be now.

dgiharris

Old Crusty Vet
Jan 9, 2013
5,439
5,222
✟131,531.00
Country
United States
Faith
Baptist
Marital Status
Single
The biggest problem with conspiracy theories is that the bigger the theory, the bigger the incident, the longer the chain of improbable events has to be.

If i'm flipping a coin, there is a 50/50 chance that I will flip heads instead of tails.

The odds of me flipping 2 heads in a row is 25%, 3 heads in a row is 12.5%.... Now, if I were to flip a coin a thousand times in a row, I'm sure to get some random streaks of flipping heads like 7 times in a row... The odds for flipping heads 7 times in a row is like 1 in 128 or 0.7% and the odds of flipping heads 20 times in a row is like 1 in 2 million. If I flipped a coin a billion times i'd probably get a couple of streaks of getting heads 20 times in a row...

Well, the chain of events for a conspiracy theory dwarf that of flipping coins and landing heads 20 times in a row.

how many people would be required to wire the Twin Towers to blow? How long would it take? How could it been done without discovery? How do you defeat surveillance cameras? Who do you hire and how do you hire them?

I would think it would take an easy 50 people to wire the Twin Towers to blow. That is 50 failure points. That is 50 people who need to keep a secret indefinitely for the rest of their lives. How long would it take to wire? I'd think at least a few months, in fact longer because it has to be done in secret. So that means you need a means to hide the explosives for months?

I'll just stop there.

Sure, it is possible the US government orchestrated 9/11-- But it is not probable. If you were to outline all of the things that would have to happen for this to be the case, and if you assigned a mathematical probability for each action-- by the end of the chain of events you'd end up with a number so ridiculously improbable you'd have a better chance of winning the Powerball lottery 10 times in a row.
 
Upvote 0

Bumble Bee

Disciplemaker
Nov 2, 2007
27,518
5,305
33
Held together by Jesus and coffee
✟694,175.00
Country
United States
Faith
Christian
Marital Status
Married
Politics
US-Others
MOD HAT ON
This thread has been moved from News and Current Events to Conspiracy Theories as it was discussing articles that are conspiracy theories rather than current news items.
MOD HAT OFF
 
Upvote 0

Rick Otto

The Dude Abides
Nov 19, 2002
34,112
7,406
On The Prairie
✟29,593.00
Faith
Christian
Marital Status
Married
Politics
US-Others
The biggest problem with conspiracy theories is that the bigger the theory, the bigger the incident, the longer the chain of improbable events has to be.

If i'm flipping a coin, there is a 50/50 chance that I will flip heads instead of tails.

The odds of me flipping 2 heads in a row is 25%, 3 heads in a row is 12.5%.... Now, if I were to flip a coin a thousand times in a row, I'm sure to get some random streaks of flipping heads like 7 times in a row... The odds for flipping heads 7 times in a row is like 1 in 128 or 0.7% and the odds of flipping heads 20 times in a row is like 1 in 2 million. If I flipped a coin a billion times i'd probably get a couple of streaks of getting heads 20 times in a row...

Well, the chain of events for a conspiracy theory dwarf that of flipping coins and landing heads 20 times in a row.

how many people would be required to wire the Twin Towers to blow? How long would it take? How could it been done without discovery? How do you defeat surveillance cameras? Who do you hire and how do you hire them?

I would think it would take an easy 50 people to wire the Twin Towers to blow. That is 50 failure points. That is 50 people who need to keep a secret indefinitely for the rest of their lives. How long would it take to wire? I'd think at least a few months, in fact longer because it has to be done in secret. So that means you need a means to hide the explosives for months?

I'll just stop there.

Sure, it is possible the US government orchestrated 9/11-- But it is not probable. If you were to outline all of the things that would have to happen for this to be the case, and if you assigned a mathematical probability for each action-- by the end of the chain of events you'd end up with a number so ridiculously improbable you'd have a better chance of winning the Powerball lottery 10 times in a row.
Thank you for stopping. You obviously haven't learned how big conspiracies rely on compartmentalization or how purposes can be layered.
It's OK.
We all have to go through that.
 
Upvote 0

dgiharris

Old Crusty Vet
Jan 9, 2013
5,439
5,222
✟131,531.00
Country
United States
Faith
Baptist
Marital Status
Single
Thank you for stopping. You obviously haven't learned how big conspiracies rely on compartmentalization or how purposes can be layered.
It's OK.
We all have to go through that.

Having had SCI and top secret clearance, I'm well aware of compartmentalization and layering for security.

Regardless, in this universe you still have to obey the laws of mathematics. There is no getting around that. And conspiracy theories suffer from improbability.

In order for any action to occur, there needs to be a chain of events.
Every event has a mathematical probability associated with it
In order for X to occur oftentimes there is another variable that must occur, sometimes 2 variables, sometimes a hundred variables...

The bigger the action, usually the more variables involved. It is one thing to hire a sniper to sit atop a tower and shoot someone from 1000 yards, it's quite another to have a minimum of 50 people on a course of action that requires months to carry out and there is a chance of discovery every second of every day with each action having a chain of events a mile long and up to a hundred variables and failure points each...

Then there is the accessibility and proliferation of video surveillance equipment and ability of anyone with cold feet to report anonymously....

Again, I'm not saying it is impossible... I'm saying it is very very improbable to the point of almost being impossible. So, I just can't really believe it.
 
Upvote 0

Rick Otto

The Dude Abides
Nov 19, 2002
34,112
7,406
On The Prairie
✟29,593.00
Faith
Christian
Marital Status
Married
Politics
US-Others
QUOTE="dgiharris, post:Having had SCI and top secret clearance, I'm well aware of compartmentalization and layering for security.
Couldn't tell any of that from what you said.

Regardless, in this universe you still have to obey the laws of mathematics. There is no getting around that.

I'm not sure you know all those laws or even correctly understand the ones you use, but I can tell you mathematical models do not adequately replace observation.


And conspiracy theories suffer from improbability.
That's not true or they wouldn't exist and proliferate as well as they do.

That the majority has been deceived is not only probable, it's biblically correct.

In order for any action to occur, there needs to be a chain of events.
Every event has a mathematical probability associated with it
In order for X to occur oftentimes there is another variable that must occur, sometimes 2 variables, sometimes a hundred variables...
I know. You found it overwhelming. I don't. Just a matter of scale.

The bigger the action, usually the more variables involved. It is one thing to hire a sniper to sit atop a tower and shoot someone from 1000 yards, it's quite another to have a minimum of 50 people on a course of action that requires months to carry out and there is a chance of discovery every second of every day with each action having a chain of events a mile long and up to a hundred variables and failure points each...
You are judging from a normal worldview. Of course you're not going to be able to imagine operations that are a success even if they fail. You can't imagine the scope of satan's plan. Propbably not all your fault, especially if you attend church faithfully.

Then there is the accessibility and proliferation of video surveillance equipment and ability of anyone with cold feet to report anonymously....
LOL, report what? To who? Hopefully not to someone like you who would dismiss it out of hand as an improbable conspiracy theory! lol
Again, I'm not saying it is impossible... I'm saying it is very very improbable to the point of almost being impossible. So, I just can't really believe it
You're not supposed to. You are supposed to feel alienated and vaguely hostile toward the very idea that you are and have been deceived.

.
 
Upvote 0