The trouble with envisioning Covid-19 growth.

[mark46]

What a great article! Over 10 years ago, the UK was high in their estimates.

sigh!

In the US, the health professionals have beeb clear in their analysis at least since they convinced the presidents to take the excellent actions that he took in January. After that, crickets.

In the US, since Feb 29, the number of deaths have doubled in the following periods of time
3 days
3 days
4 days
5 days
3 days
3 days
3 days
2 days
3 days

One can choose science or not. One can choose to believer the math or not. The fact is that the number of deaths in the US has doubled 9 times in the last month, and the rate has been remarkably consistent.

Perhaps, there will be a game changer that is effective in the coming week. If not, we will go from 2000 dead to 4000 dead to 8000 dead, and 16K and 32K in the week before Easter.

We all pray for game changers to be effective before Easter.
========
And yes, NYC may indeed reach its peak by then and start INCREASING at a lower rate. But other cities are not likely to be so lucky. Also, the virus is now spreading into the military and in our prisons.

I'm glad you guys know so much about pubmed. It's so relevant.

Here's a great article showing how UK prognosticators are now revising downward their initially hysterical doomsday predictions. It isn't the first time they've been embarrassed by their own faulty predictions.

In 2009 UK government experts wildly over-hyped dangers of swine flu — is history repeating with Covid-19?

 

[hedrick]

It's quite possible that original projections won't happen. But the immediate concern hasn't been the supposed million people who would die, but rather overloading medical facilities. In NYC that's happening already. You don't need ICL's projections to be concerned. Clusters are now starting in other places, such as Chicago, Detroit, and New Orleans.

Now you may think that the problem is only for big cities, and rural areas are OK. But rural hospitals are smaller, with less equipment, and could easily be overrun by a local cluster. It doesn't seem that the virus appears uniformly everywhere, but in clusters. Unless you can predict where there's going to be a cluster, you have to prepare everyone (or write off areas where it happens).

I really hope that this will all peak in April, and by May we can let up. But there's plenty of reason to think that whole country needs to act at the moment.

I think the uncertainties in modeling are more of an issue in May. We'll get the current problem under control by distancing. You can already see growth rates in cases going down. If some models are right, that will be the end. If others are right, the moment we loosen up, it will come back. China and S Korea are both seeing some additional cases, which suggests that things won't be over in May. By then we had better be in a position to do aggressive contact tracing.

Or maybe by then there will be treatments, so the cases don't progress to need ICUs.

 

[Al Touthentop]

What a great article! Over 10 years ago, the UK was high in their estimates.

sigh!

That's not all the article said.

One such expert is Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, who has been testifying before the British parliament on how many people he thinks will ultimately fall prey to Covid-19. Professor Ferguson was giving evidence as part of a parliamentary select committee on science and technology. His initial projection was that Covid-19 would claim the lives of 500,000 people in the UK — but he has revised that projection. Ferguson now believes that at most 20,000 people will die — and it could be much lower.

 

[hedrick]

That's not all the article said.

The reason his new projections are lower is because the original ones were based on nothing being done, and the new ones are based on the lockdown that has been implemented. 'Confusion': Imperial College scientist says 500K coronavirus death projection in UK remains unchanged

"Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged," he continued."

 

[Al Touthentop]

It's quite possible that original projections won't happen. But the immediate concern hasn't been the supposed million people who would die, but rather overloading medical facilities.

And this does not justify over-reaction. resources should be directed toward fixing those problems. Martial law won't cause the hospitals to be any more prepared.

 

[Al Touthentop]

The reason his new projections are lower is because the original ones were based on nothing being done, and the new ones are based on the lockdown that has been implemented. 'Confusion': Imperial College scientist says 500K coronavirus death projection in UK remains unchanged

"Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged," he continued."

LOL.

In Germany, where they are capturing through broader testing the less serious cases of covid, their mortality rate (and this is based on confirmed cases only) is .75%.

The mortality rate worldwide is grossly inflated.

 

[hedrick]

And this does not justify over-reaction. resources should be directed toward fixing those problems. Martial law won't cause the hospitals to be any more prepared.

Huh? Distancing will certainly cause fewer patients, which will help the hospitals. There's a clear drop in growth rates after distancing is implemented.

 

[Al Touthentop]

The reason his new projections are lower is because the original ones were based on nothing being done, and the new ones are based on the lockdown that has been implemented. 'Confusion': Imperial College scientist says 500K coronavirus death projection in UK remains unchanged

"Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged," he continued."

'Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?': Professors claim more data needed to know mortality rate

The deaths from identified positive cases are “misleading” because of limited data, according to the professors.

“If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far,” the professors argued.

Duh.

 

[mark46]

It's quite possible that original projections won't happen. But the immediate concern hasn't been the supposed million people who would die, but rather overloading medical facilities. In NYC that's happening already. You don't need ICL's projections to be concerned. Clusters are now starting in other places, such as Chicago, Detroit, and New Orleans.

Now you may think that the problem is only for big cities, and rural areas are OK. But rural hospitals are smaller, with less equipment, and could easily be overrun by a local cluster.

I really hope that this will all peak in April, and by May we can let up. But there's plenty of reason to think that whole country needs to act at the moment.

I think the uncertainties in modeling are more of an issue in May. We'll get the current problem under control by distancing. You can already see growth rates in cases going down. If some models are right, that will be the end. If others are right, the moment we loosen up, it will come back. China and S Korea are both seeing some additional cases, which suggests that things won't be over in May. By then we had better be in a position to do aggressive contact tracing.

Or maybe by then there will be treatments, so the cases don't progress to need ICUs.

=============================
The doubling of the death rate in the US has been remarkably consistent, 9 times since February 29th, doubling every 3 days. This represents a very bad trend that hasn't been stopping. Yes, NYC may hit its apex this week, but there will still be new cases and deaths for awhile. In the meantime, there are lots of cities 1-3 weeks behind NYC.

I believe that the keys to gaining control before June 1 are what you said: treatment and contact tracing. This all presumes enough masks, enough equipment, and severe distancing. June 1 is more optimistic than the president's people's estimate of last week, when they estimated July or August. Even June 1st could be a disaster unless the OVERALL death curve is flattened.

Let us say that we SUCCEED in breaking the curve for the first time in a month and double only every 5 days in the next 30 DAYS ( April) instead of every 3 days, and then every 10 days for the next 30 (may), the numbers would still be large: 9 doublings in the next 60 days.

We may think that this is great, well beyond the peaks before June 1st. The bad news is that a million would be dead at this optimistic rate.
today 2000
9 doublings: 4K, 8K, 16K, 32K, 64K, 128K, 256K, 512K, 1024K

So, yes, several game changers are needed to be EFFECTIVE in the next 60 days to reduce the daily numbers.

 

[hedrick]

LOL.

In Germany, where they are capturing through broader testing the less serious cases of covid, their mortality rate (and this is based on confirmed cases only) is .75%.

The mortality rate worldwide is grossly inflated.

By definition broader testing gives a lower mortality rate. So what? Whether the mortality rate is .6% or 2.5% isn't the point at the moment. The issue at the moment is overloaded medical facilities. It happened in Italy. It's happening in NYC. A prudent person would think the rest of the country should take precautions so it doesn't happen to them.

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

So how is the virus spreading so widely? Are people really coughing and sneezing on each other? I don't think so as much as the virus droplets landing on a surfaces and then picked up.

 

[mark46]

How so the virus spreading so widely? Are people really coughing and sneezing on each other? I don't think so a sad much as the virus droplets landing on a surface and then picked up.

Consider where the cases are huge problems. You will find large, large gatherings of people. The Mardi Gras in NO. Subways in many cities. Huge numbers on the beaches of FL.

 

[mark46]

LOL.

In Germany, where they are capturing through broader testing the less serious cases of covid, their mortality rate (and this is based on confirmed cases only) is .75%.

The mortality rate worldwide is grossly inflated.

I disagree with almost all your conclusions.

However, I stipulate that the mortality rate is likely to be close to one in a thousand or .10%. It is possible that it is as low as .07%. Given that we are staring to see death among the youth, my estimate COULD BE too low.
====
So? If 10-20% contract the disease as is the case with flu, we will still have a large number of dead. The reason that the numbers will be more than the 50,000 who will die from flu is that we have no treatments readily available, care in hospitals is not very good, and first responders and health workers are being compromised.

330 million people x 15% infection rate x .1% death rate = 50,000 dead on the first wave.
And, I don't think that we can limit the infection rate to 15% without continuing severe stay at home policies for another 6-10 weeks.

If there is no vaccine, there will likely be another major wave in fall, with a lower rate of deaths because of better care and possible treatments.

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

Consider where the cases are huge problems. You will find large, large gatherings of people. The Mardi Gras in NO. Subways in many cities. Huge numbers on the beaches of FL.

Yes, for sure, but even those who avoid crowds can get it.

 

[Al Touthentop]

I disagree with almost all your conclusions.

Thanks for sharing.

 

[Tanj]

I'm glad you guys know so much about pubmed. It's so relevant.

Here's a great article showing how UK prognosticators are now revising downward their initially hysterical doomsday predictions. It isn't the first time they've been embarrassed by their own faulty predictions.

In 2009 UK government experts wildly over-hyped dangers of swine flu — is history repeating with Covid-19?

Russia Times. Outstanding. Another American spreading Russian propaganda.

 

[Vylo]

I disagree with almost all your conclusions.

However, I stipulate that the mortality rate is likely to be close to one in a thousand or .10%. It is possible that it is as low as .07%. Given that we are staring to see death among the youth, my estimate COULD BE too low.
====
So? If 10-20% contract the disease as is the case with flu, we will still have a large number of dead. The reason that the numbers will be more than the 50,000 who will die from flu is that we have no treatments readily available, care in hospitals is not very good, and first responders and health workers are being compromised.

330 million people x 15% infection rate x .1% death rate = 50,000 dead on the first wave.
And, I don't think that we can limit the infection rate to 15% without continuing severe stay at home policies for another 6-10 weeks.

If there is no vaccine, there will likely be another major wave in fall, with a lower rate of deaths because of better care and possible treatments.

Can't be as low as .1% honestly. It has already mowed down 2,200 people in ~2 months and that was with a slow start. roughly a quarter of the total dead at any given time in the last 2 weeks, died that very day. It is killing globally at twice the rate of the flu already, and that's with the flu having a several thousand year head start. It will pass the end end estimate for worldwide flu deaths by the end of september at this rate, and the rate is likely to go up considerably.

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

3/29/20 08:20 CT

178,535 Cases which had an outcome:
146,396 (82%) Recovered / Discharged

32,139 (18%) Deaths

So hard to get a handle on total cases though. How many or self quarantined at home and not reported?

And until we get an effective vaccine this may be seasonal. A new normal for us. The more ventilators the better.

and now USA is surpassing all others.
USA 123,828
Italy 92,472
China 81,439

 

[essentialsaltes]

I'm glad you guys know so much about pubmed. It's so relevant.

It is when you are misunderstanding what it is: an NIH library.

Here's a great article showing how UK prognosticators

No, that's disinformation from Russia Today.

But in fact, Ferguson had not revised his projections in his testimony, which he made clear in interviews and Twitter. His earlier study had made clear the estimate of 500,000 deaths in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States projected what could happen if both took absolutely no action against the coronavirus. The new estimate of 20,000 deaths in Britain was a projected result now that Britain had implemented strict restrictions, which this week came to include a full lockdown.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Another visualization. All countries may look roughly like exponential growth until the curve starts to flatten, but you can see here the differences between countries that have steeper versus shallower exponentials. (Or shorter doubling times compared to longer ones)