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the Middle moved... a long time ago

Discussion in 'American Politics' started by MorkandMindy, Aug 8, 2020.

  1. MorkandMindy

    MorkandMindy Senior Veteran Supporter

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    'Moderate' isn't where it used to be.

    We now have many millions more people in the job market than there are opportunities for employment.


    It started in 1975 when automation reduced the job opportunities in agriculture and in manufacturing. The workforce was primarily male, and yes, it was unfair, and initially it helped balance the household budget but it got worse as pay rates began to decline relative to the actual costs of living because working wives further increased the supply of people seeking work - while

    - demand declined.

    Imports were taking an increasing share of market demand, and soon big corporations started moving factories out of the country as healthcare costs ballooned due price gouging in the government-enforced healthcare and pharmaceutical monopolies.
     
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  2. MorkandMindy

    MorkandMindy Senior Veteran Supporter

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    At first the change was invisible, it was the laziest and stupidest that were unemployed and it seemed reasonable to blame unemployment or underemployment on being stupid or lazy.

    But then computers began to automate administrative tasks and this has continued until now it is possible to buy a complete turnkey solution for automating most of the back office tasks.

    Andrew Yang and others knew that 2020 was going to be a turning point for employment even before the Corona virus arrived.
     
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  3. eleos1954

    eleos1954 God is Love Supporter

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    the world is ever changing ...

    round and round we go ... where it stops ... only christians know ;o)
     
  4. ThatRobGuy

    ThatRobGuy Programmer Extraordinaire Supporter

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    It was sort of a one-two punch. The end of our manufacturing/economic dominance (that was thanks to lack of competition due to many other nations trying to rebuild their infrastructure and mechanisms of production after WW2 destroyed a lot of Europe and certain parts of Asia) was coming around right at the same time as increased automation.

    It's hard for a major nation to "lose" the economic game when most other nations that would normally be competing with us, had to instead focus on rebuilding.

    You can imagine, if I ran one of the ten shirt companies, and 6-7 of my 9 competitors were destroyed by some sort of catastrophic event...it's going to be a "seller's market" for my company for quite some time until those 6-7 can rebuild, and in the interim, I'll be able to charge top dollar, expand like crazy, pay people more...as the demand for shirts didn't drop nearly as much in comparison to how drastically the supply did.


    It was sort of a short-term way of thinking for the captains of several key industries in the late 40's and early 50's...but a little long term pragmatism should've been in order...at least enough to understand "hey, these other countries will be re-entering these markets some day, and when they start competing with us, market dominance and "set your own price" won't be so easy anymore.
     
  5. MorkandMindy

    MorkandMindy Senior Veteran Supporter

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    'Moderate' if your house is on fire isn't standing around debating for a few years or taking a wait and see approach, nor is it rushing off for the gasoline.

    We could soon have half the adult population unemployed.

    We don't need one guy to have a 300 foot yacht, divided up the same volume comes to 15,625 twelve-foot long row boats.
     
  6. Aussie Pete

    Aussie Pete Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Big business was seduced by the prospect of the massive market in China. There was also the mistaken belief that everyone wanted democracy, if only they realised how much better it was. The western world has been continually outsmarted by China. Their economic transformation has been at the expense of the western world (literally). The Chinese people are materially far better off but the price has been even more repression. Now China is doing what it swore it would never do and becoming an aggressive force outside its borders.

    When will we learn? Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan (during the war with the USSR) were armed and trained by the UK and the USA. The USA prevented the UK and France from defeating Egypt in the Suez crisis. Egypt came close to overrunning Israel, Afghanistan's "freedom fighters" turned on the US, Iraq invaded US allies and Iran has been a running sore since the overthrow of the Shah. He was in power because the US thought he was better than his predecessor. That did not turn out well.

    The British defeated the communist insurgency in Malaya. The US got involved in Vietnam. What did they learn from the British? Nothing. What was the result? An ignominious defeat with a terrible cost in lives and money.

    "History teaches us that we learn nothing from history". Welcome to the New World Order.
     
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  7. Pommer

    Pommer Autodidact polymath

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    Considering we are now hearing about “Joe Biden’s ‘radical left’ agenda”, which is ludicrous on its face, the middle has moved, hard right.

    Joe Biden is nowhere near the “radical left”.
    At best, he’s center-left.
     
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  8. hislegacy

    hislegacy This is me.

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    A bit of an exaggeration there -


    Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates declined in July for adult men (9.4 percent), adult women (10.5 percent), teenagers (19.3 percent), Whites (9.2 percent), Asians (12.0 percent), and Hispanics (12.9 percent). The jobless rate for Blacks (14.6 percent) showed little change over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

    The number of unemployed persons who were on temporary layoff decreased by 1.3 million in July to 9.2 million, about half its April level. In July, the number of permanent job losers and the number of unemployed reentrants to the labor force were virtually unchanged over the month, at 2.9 million and 2.4 million, respectively. (Reentrants are persons who previously worked but were not in the labor force prior to beginning their job search.) (See table A-11.)​

    Not anywhere near your assumption.
     
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  9. ThatRobGuy

    ThatRobGuy Programmer Extraordinaire Supporter

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    I would agree that Biden is nowhere near "the radical left"...that's a GOP talking point that's not rooted in reality.

    However, he has moved left compared to what he used to be. He's the same guy who used to support cuts to medicaid and social security, and support a crime bill that disproportionately would impact certain minority communities.

    ...and based on what I'm hearing/reading, the major fear is that he's going to pick a VP that actually is "far-left" in order to appease a certain segment of the democratic voter base.

    The idea that the "middle has moved toward the right" is equally ludicrous on its face.
    (if what you're suggesting by that is that the right has moved further right than the left has moved left)

    In 1990, the mere prospect of electing someone who self-identified as a socialist would be unthinkable from people in either party...so much so, that organized labor leaders would do everything in their power to distance themselves from that word...now, it's actually a selling point for some candidates.


    I think it has more to do with a changing perception of "what constitutes 'far right'".

    From an objective standpoint, both parties are more left than they were 20-30 years ago...which, throughout history, would probably be true of any 20-30 year time gap with the exception of top tax rates.

    If you just compare 1990 to present day
    Support for SSM has increased among both parties
    Support for a Woman's right to choose has increased among both parties
    Support for marijuana legalization has increased among both parties
    Support for some form of government sponsored healthcare has increased among both parties
    (for the record, I think all of those are good things)

    The major difference, as I see it, is that the nonsensical "political purity tests" have become stricter.

    A person would would rightfully be considered a "slightly right of center" politician in 1995, is now being labelled as "far-right" by many among the left.

    It's not that "the right has moved further right", it's that perceptions of the spectrum have changed.


    upload_2020-8-8_21-39-14.png

    ...and at the other end of the spectrum, a person who was considered "far left" in 1990, is considered a moderate by today's standards.
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2020
  10. Pommer

    Pommer Autodidact polymath

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    C7FA1D55-05FF-42F6-BF69-190DA58A6A3E.png
     
  11. Ken-1122

    Ken-1122 Newbie

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    That’s because of Covid 19. Prior to that we had unemployment at a lower level than seen for half a century. Once we get past this pandemic, things will probably get back to normal and unemployment will probably get back to 3%
    Before the Coronavirus hit, we had 3% unemployment, and that is with women making up half the work force. And demand for products increased! The average family has far more manufactured products in their homes today than ever before, bigger houses, more cars, and we work jobs that are far safer, with much better benefits than ever before. In many states, people get up to 10 weeks off with full pay when they have a child! This would have been unheard of 30 years ago. There are a lot of things employers have to contend with that make products more costly to produce which cuts into the profits and pay for the average worker, yet we still managed to have record low unemployment and producing safer, and better quality products at level unseen before, at a price more people can afford than ever before.
     
  12. Ken-1122

    Ken-1122 Newbie

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    That’s because of Covid 19. Prior to that we had unemployment at a lower level than seen for half a century. Once we get past this pandemic, things will probably get back to normal and unemployment will probably get back to 3%
    Before the Coronavirus hit, we had 3% unemployment, and that is with women making up half the work force. And demand for products increased! The average family has far more manufactured products in their homes today than ever before, bigger houses, more cars, and we work jobs that are far safer, with much better benefits than ever before. In many states, people get up to 10 weeks off with full pay when they have a child! This would have been unheard of 30 years ago. There are a lot of things employers have to contend with that make products more costly to produce which cuts into the profits and pay for the average worker, yet we still managed to have record low unemployment and producing safer, and better quality products at level unseen before, at a price more people can afford than ever before.
     
  13. Pommer

    Pommer Autodidact polymath

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    Well, with the advent of Trump, “‘conservative‘ principles”, have been a bit more malleable. The Right’s mantra of “free-trade” became “trade wars are good and easy to win!”
    The Right’s distaste for deficits also fell by-the-way, (even before the pandemic cratered the economy), so much so that the tax-cuts sailed through the 2017 Republican enthralled House/Senate.

    So, yeah, the “middle” hasn’t really moved “left or right” it’s just much, much smaller.
     
  14. disciple Clint

    disciple Clint Well-Known Member

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    We just had an economy where it was almost impossible to fill jobs and that economy will return under Trump or under Biden it will not.
     
  15. Radagast

    Radagast comes and goes Supporter

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    Joe Biden has been steadily moving further and further towards the radical left.
     
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  16. disciple Clint

    disciple Clint Well-Known Member

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    If he is not there now he will be as soon as his handlers tell him what he believes and how they want him to do the job.
     
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  17. Pommer

    Pommer Autodidact polymath

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    Punctuation is our friend.
     
  18. disciple Clint

    disciple Clint Well-Known Member

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    did you have a lot of trouble understanding it?
     
  19. KCfromNC

    KCfromNC Regular Member

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    Funny how Biden's to blame for all the thing that happened under Obama's administration. If he's elected, all of those things will return. Except the good stuff. Like 70 months of sustained economic growth. Nope. In that case, he'll do the exact opposite.

    Not very convincing to most voters, if the polling is even remotely accurate. In fact, based on the polling a return to Obama (or any candidate who can speak in complete sentences) is welcomed, not feared.
     
  20. ThatRobGuy

    ThatRobGuy Programmer Extraordinaire Supporter

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    Trump being in favor of things like tariffs is actually evidence of a sharp left turn. Protectionist trade policies (which almost exclusively benefit trade unions by insulating them against the foreign competition) are a left-leaning ideal.

    ...but to my point before, the middle (in terms of a bisecting line between the two sides) is further left now than it was years back. Trump is just one particular president, who doesn't represent the values of the party as a whole. If that were the case, there wouldn't be so much infighting in the GOP between state level and federal level. (Guys like Mike Dewine, Bill Weld, Charlie Baker, and Larry Hogan represent the mindsets of a substantial number of people who identify as republicans)

    Just take these topics for example:

    upload_2020-8-9_10-14-0.png

    upload_2020-8-9_10-16-12.png

    upload_2020-8-9_10-18-59.png

    For the topics of gay marriage and legalized marijuana, you're more likely to find a republican who supports those things in 2020, than you were to find a democrat that supported them in 1996.

    ...and while there's still a wide gap on the topic of healthcare, republican support for government run healthcare has increased from 9% to 13% in a matter of 5-10 years. That's no small move considering the healthcare-related propaganda and "socialism!" scaremongering that's been taking place during that entire time window.

    Even on the topic of gun control (another one where there's still a wide gap), the republican support for stricter gun control measures has gone from 23% (in 2013) to 36% (in 2020).


    ...and there are more moves to come with the age demographic changes that are upcoming. Specifically with the topic of abortion

    upload_2020-8-9_10-30-16.png
     
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