A majority of Herod biographers, and "probably a majority of biblical scholars," hold the event to be myth, legend or folklore.
[4] It is found in no other gospel, and the Jewish historian
Josephus does not mention it in his
Antiquities of the Jews (c. AD 94), despite recording many of Herod's misdeeds including the murder of three of his own sons.
[3] It appears to be modeled on Pharaoh's attempt to kill the Israelite children (
Exodus 1:22), and more specifically on various elaborations of the original story that had become current in the 1st century.
[5] In that expanded story, Pharaoh kills the Hebrew children after his scribes warn him of the impending birth of the threat to his crown (i.e., Moses), but Moses' father and mother are warned in a dream that the child's life is in danger and act to save him. Later in life, after Moses has to flee, like Jesus, he only returns when those who sought his death are themselves dead.
[6] The story of the massacre of the innocents thus plays a part in Matthew's wider nativity story, in which the proclamation of the coming of the Messiah (his birth) is followed by his rejection by the Jews (Herod and his scribes and the people of Jerusalem) and his later acceptance by the gentiles (the
Magi).
[7] The relevance of
Jeremiah 31:15 to the massacre in Bethlehem is not immediately apparent, as Jeremiah's next verses go on to speak of hope and restoration.
[8]
Some scholars argue for the historicity of the event.
R. T. France, despite noting that the massacre is "perhaps the aspect [of his story of Jesus' infancy] most often rejected as legendary",
[9] and acknowledging that the story is similar to that of Moses, argues "
t is clear that this scriptural model has been important in Matthew's telling of the story of Jesus, but not so clear that it would have given rise to this narrative without historical basis."[10] Some scholars, such as Everett Ferguson, write that the story makes sense in the context of Herod's reign of terror in the last few years of his rule,[11] and the number of infants in Bethlehem that would have been killed – no more than a dozen or so – may have been too insignificant to be recorded by Josephus, who could not be aware of every incident far in the past when he wrote it.[12]
Massacre of the Innocents - Wikipedia
The last sentence in the passage above, could be the most relevant.