Study shows that only 2.3% of patients needed a ventilator.

[Need answers]

Im not a doctor and maybe i misunderstand. But according to this study posted in the New England Journal of medicine, only 2.3% of patients needed a ventilator. Maybe we in the USA shouldn't be stockpiling so many of them and instead share them until we area able to build more?


https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

We extracted data regarding 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 from 552 hospitals in 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in mainland China through January 29, 2020. The primary composite end point was admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), the use of mechanical ventilation, or death.

RESULTS
The median age of the patients was 47 years; 41.9% of the patients were female. The primary composite end point occurred in 67 patients (6.1%), including 5.0% who were admitted to the ICU, 2.3% who underwent invasive mechanical ventilation, and 1.4% who died.

 

[JackRT]

In a large population those small percentages can still be large numbers in human terms.

 

[Need answers]

In a large population those small percentages can still be large numbers in human terms.

The New York Governor says NY needs 30,000 ventilators. However According to this study he doesn't need any where close to that amount right now. Maybe he needs to be patient and share what we have until we make more. Stockpiling at a time like this inst a good idea. We will make more ventilators and dont need to do that right now. Take what you need and allow other states to have the same opportunity.

 

[expos4ever]

The New York Governor says NY needs 30,000 ventilators. However According to this study he doesn't need any where close to that amount right now. Maybe he needs to be patient and share what we have until we make more. Stockpiling at a time like this inst a good idea. We will make more ventilators and dont need to do that right now. Take what you need and allow other states to have the same opportunity.

How do you figure he doesn't need that amount? If only 10 % of NY state's populations gets Covid-19, that is 40,000 ventilators! 2 % of 10% of 20 million = 40,000.

 

[Need answers]

If only 10 % of NY state's populations gets Covid-19, that is 40,000 ventilators!

NY state currently has 59,000 cases of Covid-19. Only 2.3% of those 59,000 cases will need a ventilator, according to the study. That comes out to 1300 ventilators. Thats no where close to 30,000. The NY Governor needs to share and stop hording.

 

[expos4ever]

NY state currently has 59,000 cases of Covid-19. Only 2.3% of those 59,000 cases will need a ventilator, according to the study. That comes out to 1300 ventilators. Thats no where close to 30,000. The NY Governor needs to share and stop hording.

New York state currently has 59,000 cases.......If you don't think that number is going to go up, I suggest you need a ventilator.

 

[Need answers]

New York state currently has 59,000 cases.......If you don't think that number is going to go up, I suggest you need a ventilator.

Its going to go up sure, but not to a level that requires 30,000 ventilators. not for a while anyway There is no need for NY to horde that many ventilators.. We must share until we make more.

 

[hedrick]

it would be nice to see more about the model Cuomo is using.

here’s the most detailed explanation from him. https://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-n-y-gov-cuomo-announces-40000-health-professionals-have-signed-up-to-volunteer-as-part-of-the-states-surge-healthcare-force#.XoE4GC8pBvI

it sounds to me like his numbers may not take into account the effects of distancing, in part because at the time he made his statement he didn’t know what the effects would be.

 

[Need answers]

it would be nice to see more about the model Cuomo is using.

It would be nice to share our supplies like liberals are always talking about. NY needs to share with other states.

 

[expos4ever]

Its going to go up sure, but not to a level that requires 30,000 ventilators. not for a while anyway There is no need for NY to horde that many ventilators.. We must share until we make more.

No offense but you have zero qualifications to render such an opinion. Neither do I.

Please do not speculate about something you do not know anything about. If a qualified expert agrees that 40,000 is too many, that is a different story.

 

[expos4ever]

It would be nice to share our supplies like liberals are always talking about. NY needs to share with other states.

This wouldn't be you grinding a partisan political axe, would it?

 

[Need answers]

No offense but you have zero qualifications to render such an opinion. Neither do I.

Please do not speculate about something you do not know anything about. If a qualified expert agrees that 40,000 is too many, that is a different story.

Im qualified to understand what 2.3% means. NY shouldn't be hording ventilators that they dont need when other states need them too.

 

[Need answers]

This wouldn't be you grinding a partisan political axe, would it?

Iron sharpens iron.

 

[expos4ever]

Im qualified to understand what 2.3% means. NY shouldn't be hording ventilators that they dont need when other states need them too.

Come on, man. You are not qualified to assess the peak requirement for ventilators.

 

[Need answers]

Come on, man. You are not qualified to assess the peak requirement for ventilators.

Im qualified to know that NY doesnt need that many ventilators now, and they shouldn't be wanting to hoard supplies when things are tight. We are making more. He could just be patient, wait and share..

 

[hedrick]

Here's the only complete set of models I've seen for the US IHME | COVID-19 Projections. I believe it was done to help hospitals plan. Note that it hasn't been updated based on current data. In particular, it seems to be about a week ahead for New York. The current projection is a peak at least a week later than shown. That could mean that it's showing a rise in death rate a week earlier than it's actually happening.

You'll note that the range they give for ventilator count is below 30,000, but is still substantial. I'd guess that the model assumes one ventilator per person, though, where in reality they're starting to share them between two.

 

[Need answers]

Here's the only complete set of models I've seen for the US IHME | COVID-19 Projections. I believe it was done to help hospitals plan. Note that it hasn't been updated based on current data. In particular, it seems to be about a week ahead for New York. The current projection is a peak at least a week later than shown. That could mean that it's showing a rise in death rate a week earlier than it's actually happening.

You'll note that the range they give for ventilator count is below 30,000, but is still substantial. I'd guess that the model assumes one ventilator per person, though, where in reality they're starting to share them between two.

Those stats are for the whole USA not just NY. It says we only need less than 1900 ventilators for the whole country but the NY governor is asking much more than that for his sate alone.. Can you explain why they claim the Us only needs that amount of ventilators? Am i misreading this data?

 

[hedrick]

Those stats are for the whole USA not just NY. It says we only need less than 1900 ventilators for the whole country but the NY governor is asking much more than that for his sate alone.. Can you explain why they claim the Us only needs that amount of ventilators? Am i misreading this data?

There's a pulldown menu that lets you choose a state.

The US number is a range of 19K to 40K. The numbers at the top don't give the range, but if you move the cursor over a date, you'll get more detail. 19 - 40K is what you get for the highest day. The NY number is 1.5K to 10.7K at peak.

 

[Need answers]

There's a pulldown menu that lets you choose a state.

The US number is a range of 19K to 40K. The numbers at the top don't give the range, but if you move the cursor over a date, you'll get more detail. 19 - 40K is what you get for the highest day. The NY number is 1.5K to 10.7K at peak.

Still cant find it. All i see are US stats.

 

[Need answers]

The NY number is 1.5K to 10.7K at peak.

If the NY peak is only under 11,000, why then is the NY Governor asking for 30,000 ventilators? Only 2.3% will even need a ventilator in the first place.