Strategy for Republican

[ThatRobGuy]

I'm calling it now, DeSantis will be the nominee...

I think if they're worried about what Trump might say about them in 2024, they're over thinking it.

Let's be quite frank here... Trump is an overweight guy with terrible eating habits who will be pushing 80 by the time the next elections come up. Betting odds are that he likely won't be up for such an endeavor by then.

The strategic blunder they're making isn't so much "far right guys worried about what other far right guys will say about them"

Their blunder is the fact that they're not tapping into a moderate New England Republican who can win some votes in areas where the GOP doesn't usually have a strong showing in national-level elections.

In many ways, it's a mistake that democrats make too.

"Playing to the people who are already on your team" vs. "Playing to the people who can add to the team"

The reality is, whether the republicans run a far-right guy, or a moderate republican, certain states are going to go red no matter what (much like with democrats, they're going to win California, doesn't matter if they run a far-left person or moderate democrat)


However, you run a guy like Mass. Gov Charlie Baker or a Larry Hogan (guys who handily won gubernatorial elections, as republicans, in states that typically go Blue in presidential elections), conservatives in places like Florida, Texas, Tennessee, etc... are still going to vote for them. What are they going to do, vote for a Democrat instead? Unlikely.

However, a lot of the people in New England states who may be fiscally conservative but more socially progressive would definitely be "gettable" votes for a Baker or Hogan, without having to worry about losing any solid red states.

 

[mark46]

I'm calling it now, DeSantis will be the nominee...
.

I would check out how well choices made 3 years in advance have been.

 

[Ken-1122]

I am puzzled what GOP strategist and politician trying to do. I can see what Mitch Mcconnell and Kevin Mccarthy is doing. They want to keep Trump in their good grace so they can take back the congress with Trump’s support in 2022.

I am failing to understand what is the strategy for Ted Cruz , Mike Pompeo, Ron Desantis and others. They all want to be president and regardless Trump run 2024, they all will run for President in 2024. How are they going to separate themselves from Trump or from each other when they all want to get MAGA vote.

Liz Cheney on the other hand may not be popular among republican now, but she already established herself as the alternative choice for Republicans. She will get all the support from never Trumpper.

Any thoughts?

I don't think Trump is as much of a big deal as you seem to think he is anymore. He isn't in the spot light anymore, nobody hears from him anymore, perhaps Cruz, Pompeo and Desantis are just running on their own policies and don't even have Trump in their picture. If those guys push for some of the policies Trump implemented; like fixing the Border, and cutting taxes; all of those in the Trump corner will be in their corner; plus those who already like them.

 

[mark46]

I strongly disagree.

Trump is the head of the Republican Party. Only a very few dare oppose him and his base. This is most obvious on issues like January 6th. No one dares oppose him without the danger of a primary. Obviously, this is especially true with House members.

The open question is how long he can maintain that hold. The current phase of the pandemic has already caused divisions within the party.

 

[hislegacy]

Come to conclusion of what .. Cruz, pompeo , Desantis or Rubio want to run in 2024?

yes, I do a fair amount of reading and I have not seen anything from any of them about plans to run in 2024

 

[Tiberius Lee]

My guess is they'll go after the moderate Democrats who voted Biden in...

They'll point out that he's destroying the economy with handouts and inflation.

They'll point out that the left is trying to push racial indoctrination on their children.

They'll blame Harris for the total failure at the border and the hundreds of covid infected aliens pouring across the border from all across the world.

They'll point out that issues like healthcare and the environment have been ignored.

They'll point out that the rising crime rates are a result of liberal activist attacks on the police.

In short, they don't have to make any big gains....they can simply point out the myriad failures of this administration and the complete lack of care for what moderate Democratic voters want.

In alternative reality ( Fox news viewer) your list exist but not the same earth rest of us do.

If these democrat lives in same Earth like I do, none of them will believe any of the list you provided.

yea right .. democrat will support Ted Cruz over Biden .. only if those people live in alternative reality!

 

[Tiberius Lee]

I'm calling it now, DeSantis will be the nominee...

I think if they're worried about what Trump might say about them in 2024, they're over thinking it.

Let's be quite frank here... Trump is an overweight guy with terrible eating habits who will be pushing 80 by the time the next elections come up. Betting odds are that he likely won't be up for such an endeavor by then.

The strategic blunder they're making isn't so much "far right guys worried about what other far right guys will say about them"

Their blunder is the fact that they're not tapping into a moderate New England Republican who can win some votes in areas where the GOP doesn't usually have a strong showing in national-level elections.

In many ways, it's a mistake that democrats make too.

"Playing to the people who are already on your team" vs. "Playing to the people who can add to the team"

The reality is, whether the republicans run a far-right guy, or a moderate republican, certain states are going to go red no matter what (much like with democrats, they're going to win California, doesn't matter if they run a far-left person or moderate democrat)


However, you run a guy like Mass. Gov Charlie Baker or a Larry Hogan (guys who handily won gubernatorial elections, as republicans, in states that typically go Blue in presidential elections), conservatives in places like Florida, Texas, Tennessee, etc... are still going to vote for them. What are they going to do, vote for a Democrat instead? Unlikely.

However, a lot of the people in New England states who may be fiscally conservative but more socially progressive would definitely be "gettable" votes for a Baker or Hogan, without having to worry about losing any solid red states.

I like Hogan. If he Is Gop nominee, I have to think hard who to vote.

But going back to your first sentence… GOP is far , far away from nominating a brown guy like DeSantis. Even in 2016 GOP could nominate a brown guy like Rubio but not today. IA voter is not voting for a brown guy, they will either vote a racist like Trump or evangelical like Huckabee.

 

[TLK Valentine]

I'm calling it now, DeSantis will be the nominee...

I think if they're worried about what Trump might say about them in 2024, they're over thinking it.

Let's be quite frank here... Trump is an overweight guy with terrible eating habits who will be pushing 80 by the time the next elections come up. Betting odds are that he likely won't be up for such an endeavor by then.

Donald's made a name for himself beating the odds, politically speaking.

The strategic blunder they're making isn't so much "far right guys worried about what other far right guys will say about them"

Their blunder is the fact that they're not tapping into a moderate New England Republican who can win some votes in areas where the GOP doesn't usually have a strong showing in national-level elections.

Moderates are not "real" Republicans; they will be properly purged. Besides, between gerrymandering and challenging election results -- be it in the legislatures, the courts, or if need be, on the Capitol steps -- who needs "votes" anymore?

 

[mark46]

yes, I do a fair amount of reading and I have not seen anything from any of them about plans to run in 2024

Agreed.

No one has been stupid enough to declare their candidacy for the presidency in the election 3 1/2 years from now.

However, I can assure you that running is being considered by many folks. The most obvious are Haley and DiSantis. I've gotten several emails from the Haley folks. Everyone's hands is tied until after the midterms.

 

[Tiberius Lee]

yes, I do a fair amount of reading and I have not seen anything from any of them about plans to run in 2024

I assume there is no point of arguing, neither of us can get in their head. We just have to see. I personally think they will run.

 

[hislegacy]

I assume there is no point of arguing, neither of us can get in their head. We just have to see. I personally think they will run.

Thank you - I appreciate the reply - you said it so definitively I thought you had read something I had not.

 

[mark46]

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Moderates are not "real" Republicans; they will be properly purged. Besides, between gerrymandering and challenging election results -- be it in the legislatures, the courts, or if need be, on the Capitol steps -- who needs "votes" anymore?

They will be purged from having any power. The Republicans need to think long and hard before they primary all those who oppose Trump (moderates and others). As was the case in 2018, there is real danger of giving away races to the Democrats.

As an aside, Mrkowski's seat is especially interesting. If she has to run as a write-in again, she might just give in and caucus with the Democrats.

 

[Ken-1122]

I strongly disagree.

Trump is the head of the Republican Party.

No; Mitch McConnel is the Senate Republican leader. Trump is just an ex president. He is no more a republican leader than Obama is a democratic leader.

Only a very few dare oppose him and his base. This is most obvious on issues like January 6th.

Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Mitch McConnel and many others have voiced criticism against Trump. How many Democrats have ever voiced criticism to some of the stuff Obama did? Is Obama the leader of the Democratic party?

 

[hislegacy]

They will be purged from having any power. The Republicans need to think long and hard before they primary all those who oppose Trump (moderates and others). As was the case in 2018, there is real danger of giving away races to the Democrats.

As an aside, Mrkowski's seat is especially interesting. If she has to run as a write-in again, she might just give in and caucus with the Democrats.

Interesting thoughts, and I can see why you would go that way, but can I ask a question.

Under Obama (most loved etc), the Democratic Party lost over 1,000 seats Federally, State etc. Under Trump (most hated etc.) Republicans gained seats (exception of the Senate).

Joe is in many ways Obama part two - instead of unifying the Congress, he is slowly separating both parties and there are distinct schisms in the Democratic Party growing worse.

Can the fractured party over come the issues (directed at both Republican and Democratic)? That is the real question. I think

 

[mark46]

No; Mitch McConnel is the Senate Republican leader. Trump is just an ex president. He is no more a republican leader than Obama is a democratic leader.


Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Mitch McConnel and many others have voiced criticism against Trump. How many Democrats have ever voiced criticism to some of the stuff Obama did? Is Obama the leader of the Democratic party?

Whatever floats your boat.

1) Almost no Republican will wing in a swing district without the support of Trump, and without them openly supporting Trump.

2) You think that no Democrat criticized Obama and his police. Obama, the "deporter in chief", the man who accepted Romneycare with no public option, the man who made using drones an art form, and the man who kept Republican financial leaders in place and gave us a stimulus package that set us back for 5 extra years. You think that Obama went uncriticized?

 

[TLK Valentine]

No; Mitch McConnel is the Senate Republican leader. Trump is just an ex president. He is no more a republican leader than Obama is a democratic leader.

Obama stepped out of the spotlight gracefully, and more to the point, willingly. Donald is still a guest of honor prominence at Republican rallies, where he still entertains crowds with The Big Lie.

Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Mitch McConnel and many others have voiced criticism against Trump.

Only to flip-flop when Donald so much as glares in their direction.

How many Democrats have ever voiced criticism to some of the stuff Obama did?

What morally reprehensible/impeachable stuff would you like them to criticize?

Is Obama the leader of the Democratic party?

He probably could be a de facto leader if he chose to pursue such power and influence... But the goal of a true leader is not to create followers; it's to create more leaders.

As a community organizer, Obama knows this. Guess who doesn't?

 

[mark46]

Interesting thoughts, and I can see why you would go that way, but can I ask a question.

Under Obama (most loved etc), the Democratic Party lost over 1,000 seats Federally, State etc. Under Trump (most hated etc.) Republicans gained seats (exception of the Senate).

Joe is in many ways Obama part two - instead of unifying the Congress, he is slowly separating both parties and there are distinct schisms in the Democratic Party growing worse.

Can the fractured party over come the issues (directed at both Republican and Democratic)? That is the real question. I think

If Republicans moved away from Trump in the weeks following January 6th, I would tend to agree. I would then have expected a unified Republican Party to have little trouble in winning the Senate and House.

Every Democrat voted for the so-called stimulus package. Every Democrat will vote for a budget reconciliation bill or two. Until the Democratic Party nominates a candidate from the left, I believe that they are safe. The left of the party has been around for decades, as has the far right in the Republican Party. The political trick is to continue to govern from the relative middle (of the party).

Obviously, Republicans hope that Biden will not run again, and that they will run against Warren or Harris.

Trump could probably beat either of those candidates from jail, although I think that they will bright enough not to nominate him.

Th trick is to govern from right of the center of party. Republicans need to govern from left of center of their party.
============
In the end, there are very few swing states.

 

[Tiberius Lee]

Interesting thoughts, and I can see why you would go that way, but can I ask a question.

Under Obama (most loved etc), the Democratic Party lost over 1,000 seats Federally, State etc. Under Trump (most hated etc.) Republicans gained seats (exception of the Senate).

Joe is in many ways Obama part two - instead of unifying the Congress, he is slowly separating both parties and there are distinct schisms in the Democratic Party growing worse.

Can the fractured party over come the issues (directed at both Republican and Democratic)? That is the real question. I think

The difference between Obama vs Trump is that Obama won election Both Times . Trump lost.
you are right , democrat are fractured, because democrat don't take Biden the supreme authority of their party like GOP does with Trump.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Donald's made a name for himself beating the odds, politically speaking.

Moderates are not "real" Republicans; they will be properly purged. Besides, between gerrymandering and challenging election results -- be it in the legislatures, the courts, or if need be, on the Capitol steps -- who needs "votes" anymore?

While he's beaten the odds politically, that's not a guarantee that he'll beat the odds medically and health wise.

McDonald's isn't exactly "longevity fuel".

If they purge the moderates, as I said, that'll be their major blunder.

This past election already showed us the outcome of "far-right republican" vs. "moderate democrat"...so I don't know why they'd expect different results the next time around.

If they're planning on running another farther right candidate in 2024 (and like I said, I think it'll be DeSantis), their only hope is that Biden is no longer in the picture, and that they'll be running against a far-left ticket.

DeSantis isn't going to be able to beat a moderate democratic ticket... if it's a far-left ticket (like if we were to see a Harris/AOC ticket), then he could certainly have a chance (since there's a lot of people in some of the swing states that aren't crazy about them)...but even then, a moderate ticket approach would be the stronger play for republicans.

A Bill Weld/Charlie Baker ticket for the GOP would handily beat a Biden/Harris ticket, or a Harris/AOC ticket.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

I like Hogan. If he Is Gop nominee, I have to think hard who to vote.

But going back to your first sentence… GOP is far , far away from nominating a brown guy like DeSantis. Even in 2016 GOP could nominate a brown guy like Rubio but not today. IA voter is not voting for a brown guy, they will either vote a racist like Trump or evangelical like Huckabee.

What exactly do you mean by "Brown Guy"? DeSantis is Italian if I'm not mistaken.

But it doesn't sound like have much confidence in IA voters...

Having said that, I think you may be exaggerating racial sentiments a bit.

If republicans in South Carolina had no issues voting for Tim Scott, I find it hard to believe that people in Iowa would have qualms with voting for someone of Italian descent.