Solar influences on global warming/cooling.

[Michael]

2020: The Lowest Solar Activity In Over 200 Years

When solar activity gets really low, it can have the effect of a “mini ice age.” The period between 1645 and 1715 was marked by a prolonged sunspot minimum, and this corresponded to a downturn in temperatures in Europe and North America. Named after astronomers Edward Maunder and his wife Annie Russell Maunder, this period became known as the Maunder Minimum. It is also known as “The Little Ice Age.”

I should preface this conversation to stating that I certainly believe that human beings are having an impact on the planet in terms of C02 emissions which are causing global warming.

Having said that, it's also clear from various ice ages and cooling cycles that the Earth has experienced warming and cooling cycles which are not man made.

In the thirty plus years I've been studying solar physics, and 20+ years of studying satellite imagery of the sun, I've never seen anything like what we're seeing now in terms of low energy production from the sun at the higher energy wavelengths. The last several years have been particular "unusual" for the lack of sunspot production (which is related to higher energy wavelength production) and I'm wondering how much of an effect that's likely to have on the planet in terms of slowing down the rate of warming, or even leading to cooling trend.

Typically cooling trends are associated with reduced sunspot activity, and it's pretty clear we've have reduced sunspot activity in this current cycle. The sun does go through 11 year cycles, and we're at the bottom of that cycle at the moment, but this cycle is considerably "quieter' in term of high energy output from the sun.

 

[SkyWriting]

2020: The Lowest Solar Activity In Over 200 Years


I should preface this conversation to stating that I certainly believe that human beings are having an impact on the planet in terms of C02 emissions which are causing global warming.

Having said that, it's also clear from various ice ages and cooling cycles that the Earth has experienced warming and cooling cycles which are not man made.

In the thirty plus years I've been studying solar physics, and 20+ years of studying satellite imagery of the sun, I've never seen anything like what we're seeing now in terms of low energy production from the sun at the higher energy wavelengths. The last several years have been particular "unusual" for the lack of sunspot production (which is related to higher energy wavelength production) and I'm wondering how much of an effect that's likely to have on the planet in terms of slowing down the rate of warming, or even leading to cooling trend.

Typically cooling trends are associated with reduced sunspot activity, and it's pretty clear we've have reduced sunspot activity in this current cycle. The sun does go through 11 year cycles, and we're at the bottom of that cycle at the moment, but this cycle is considerably "quieter' in term of high energy output from the sun.

Likely this is hiding dramatic local warming. Stop living on the sea coasts.
Do this now.

 

[Occams Barber]

I'm wondering how much of an effect that's likely to have on the planet in terms of slowing down the rate of warming, or even leading to cooling trend.

This study seems to suggest that the effect will be minimal:

Space.com No Global Cooling Miracle: Sun's Activity Lull Will Stop Soon, Study Suggests

Original article in Nature Communications
​

OB

 

[Aussie Pete]

2020: The Lowest Solar Activity In Over 200 Years


I should preface this conversation to stating that I certainly believe that human beings are having an impact on the planet in terms of C02 emissions which are causing global warming.

Having said that, it's also clear from various ice ages and cooling cycles that the Earth has experienced warming and cooling cycles which are not man made.

In the thirty plus years I've been studying solar physics, and 20+ years of studying satellite imagery of the sun, I've never seen anything like what we're seeing now in terms of low energy production from the sun at the higher energy wavelengths. The last several years have been particular "unusual" for the lack of sunspot production (which is related to higher energy wavelength production) and I'm wondering how much of an effect that's likely to have on the planet in terms of slowing down the rate of warming, or even leading to cooling trend.

Typically cooling trends are associated with reduced sunspot activity, and it's pretty clear we've have reduced sunspot activity in this current cycle. The sun does go through 11 year cycles, and we're at the bottom of that cycle at the moment, but this cycle is considerably "quieter' in term of high energy output from the sun.

CO2 is not pollution, it is essential for life. A great deal of warming is the result of human greed and stupidity. Australia is hot. So new suburbs are constructed in notoriously hot areas, with black roofed homes squashed together with little greenery. It is local warming but it adds to the data that influences people who blame CO2. It is easy to show the differences construction techniques make. Nearby older suburbs are degrees cooler. They have shade from well established trees.

CO2 could be controlled by trees, God's climate control system. Deliberate forest clearing leads to all kinds of problems. It's hardly surprising that bare ground absorbs heat far more effectively than shaded land. So Australia is suffering from decades of poor management of land. It's not rocket surgery, but it's much easier to blame "them" (whoever "they" are).

I'm always sceptical when money is to be made from a proposed solution. Finally, governments have found a way to tax the air we breathe - or at least the miniscule amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. By all means promote more efficient use of resources. But every solution has its own set of problems. Knee Jerk "Let's go back to the stone age" reactions are not the answer. Reafforestation is part of the solution but possibly too late.

Solar energy reduction could be a breathing space for mankind to sort out some real solutions to climate problems. I'm 68 and I've yet to see any sensible, cost effective and cooperative solution to a world wide problem. I'm not holding my breath on this issue. Perhaps I should. I exhale CO2 continually......

 

[archer75]

Why does it have to be "cost effective"? If we fail, we lose everything.

 

[Michael]

This study seems to suggest that the effect will be minimal:

Space.com No Global Cooling Miracle: Sun's Activity Lull Will Stop Soon, Study Suggests

Original article in Nature Communications
​

OB

I've been paying attention to solar physics since solar cycle 21, and high energy solar satellite physics since the early 90's (mid cycle 22) through Yohkoh, SOHO, GOES, TRACE and STEREO imagery. The last two solar cycles have shown a remarkable downturn in high energy atmospheric activity. Even 'active' phases look pretty tame now compared to previous cycles. If this trend continues, it might suggest we're in for a cooling phase.

I would say that Skywriting is probably right that this recent trend of solar cooling might simply be preventing/mitigating an otherwise worse global warming problem, but it does seem to me that solar activity has a direct effect on global temperatures too, not just man made factors.

 

[Michael]

CO2 is not pollution, it is essential for life.

It's certainly essential for plant life, and therefore life in general, but too much of it does end up heating up the atmosphere at a faster rate. When we burn fossil fuels we're also releasing many types of other toxins into the environment, coal in particular.

I'm always sceptical when money is to be made from a proposed solution. Finally, governments have found a way to tax the air we breathe - or at least the miniscule amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. By all means promote more efficient use of resources. But every solution has its own set of problems. Knee Jerk "Let's go back to the stone age" reactions are not the answer. Reafforestation is part of the solution but possibly too late.

Well, I agree that we can't go back to the stone age, and I too am skeptical of concepts like carbon taxes. I do however see the value in weaning ourselves away from fossil fuels and embracing cleaner alternative energy production methods.

Solar energy reduction could be a breathing space for mankind to sort out some real solutions to climate problems. I'm 68 and I've yet to see any sensible, cost effective and cooperative solution to a world wide problem. I'm not holding my breath on this issue. Perhaps I should. I exhale CO2 continually......

I'm not sure we can look at the problem in terms of what is "cost effective" if we aren't looking at the full costs of cancers produced by the burning of fossil fuels and the damage being done to the environment. The fossil fuel industry tends to simply ignore those costs.

 

[Jonathan Walkerin]

I'm 68 and I've yet to see any sensible, cost effective and cooperative solution to a world wide problem.

In regards to enviromental issues The Montreal Protocol would be a pretty good example of sensible, cost effective and cooperative solution.

Montreal Protocol - Wikipedia

 

[The_Barmecide]

Why does it have to be "cost effective"? If we fail, we lose everything.

Back in the 80's when people were worried about acid rain Reagan got a conservative "merchant of doubt" put on the committee in the NSF. Virtually no one would work with him so when the final report came out he got his own little appendix. He did a clever "cost benefit analysis" of dealing with acid rain by arbitrarily setting nature as having $0 value and then working from there. It's an easy matter to then decree that it will cost MORE than it will be worth to fix the problem.

 

[The_Barmecide]

In regards to enviromental issues The Montreal Protocol would be a pretty good example of sensible, cost effective and cooperative solution.

Montreal Protocol - Wikipedia

Indeed! And even then there were Merchants of Doubt who tried to say that banning CFC's would result in much worse alternatives coming to the fore (more expensive, more dangerous). Of course they were shown to be wrong, but we can't learn. Now we've got the same "skeptics" blathering on about how we have to be careful with addressing global climate change.

 

[JackRT]

The solar cycle is just one influence on global climate. Other warming/cooling cycles also have an influence but they are not in synch. Some reinforce others but some cancel but all are natural cycles. Other natural influences are volcanism and forest fires. On top of all that we now have human caused pollution of the atmosphere of which CO2 is one. This has thrown the entire system out of whack to the point there we are now experiencing a dramatically rapid period of global warming. The science for this is very solid. If this continues unabated it will seriously impact our human quality of life in a negative way.