- Dec 20, 2003
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US generals grilled on TV today revealed the decision to leave Afghanistan was a presidential one against military advice and with an awareness that it would collapse the Afghan regime, albeit not as fast as it happened in practice. So what is the new Big picture that is now being moved towards and in relation to which Afghanistan was regarded as a distraction and a drain on resources?
The USA is now focused on Russia and China as its key rivals. It has pivoted to the Indo-Pacific region and is looking for better relations with key countries that could help it put a brake on Chinese ambitions in the region. So India, Japan, Britain, Australia, and South Korea are in the new inner circle. Old Europe is more marginalized in this New World Order as the French were shocked to find out when they lost their submarine deal to the USA and Britain.
The recent German election following BREXIT looks like returning Olaf Scholz as the new Chancellor at the head of a Green-FDP-SDP alliance. He has spoken openly of a European army and a further expansion of Europe into the Ukraine and Moldavia. This would aggravate Russia and require enhanced European military capabilities. Maybe Merkel's softly-softly approach to Chinese and Russian human rights abuses is no longer the standard trade-off for the benefits it brings to rich German companies. The American- European alliance on which world stability depended during the Cold War and which also supported the US involvement in Afghanistan now appears less important to the USA than more global arrangements with key nations that better mirror American interests. China is the real focus of these changes and in that context, Japan and Australia, and indeed India are more important allies and European countries only if they can support a global projection strategy and China containment strategy.
Nothing is set in stone right now but the world is shifting.
1) Is Europe marginalized in this new world order. Should it be confronting China or sticking with trading only? Is Europe safer on the margins of any future conflicts?
2) Can Islam and Islamic terrorism be simply ignored in favor of old-fashioned rival-orientated politics focused on Russia and China as the bogeymen? (Especially since the generals confirmed today that Al Quaeda and others are still in Afghanistan)
3) The basic economic centers of the new world are the USA, Europe, and China each with equal weight. But the defense structures have shifted. Is the growing dissonance between Europe and the USA a good or a bad thing? Are we moving into a multipolar world with no singular superpower focus? Is this European -US alliance still essential to world stability?
The USA is now focused on Russia and China as its key rivals. It has pivoted to the Indo-Pacific region and is looking for better relations with key countries that could help it put a brake on Chinese ambitions in the region. So India, Japan, Britain, Australia, and South Korea are in the new inner circle. Old Europe is more marginalized in this New World Order as the French were shocked to find out when they lost their submarine deal to the USA and Britain.
The recent German election following BREXIT looks like returning Olaf Scholz as the new Chancellor at the head of a Green-FDP-SDP alliance. He has spoken openly of a European army and a further expansion of Europe into the Ukraine and Moldavia. This would aggravate Russia and require enhanced European military capabilities. Maybe Merkel's softly-softly approach to Chinese and Russian human rights abuses is no longer the standard trade-off for the benefits it brings to rich German companies. The American- European alliance on which world stability depended during the Cold War and which also supported the US involvement in Afghanistan now appears less important to the USA than more global arrangements with key nations that better mirror American interests. China is the real focus of these changes and in that context, Japan and Australia, and indeed India are more important allies and European countries only if they can support a global projection strategy and China containment strategy.
Nothing is set in stone right now but the world is shifting.
1) Is Europe marginalized in this new world order. Should it be confronting China or sticking with trading only? Is Europe safer on the margins of any future conflicts?
2) Can Islam and Islamic terrorism be simply ignored in favor of old-fashioned rival-orientated politics focused on Russia and China as the bogeymen? (Especially since the generals confirmed today that Al Quaeda and others are still in Afghanistan)
3) The basic economic centers of the new world are the USA, Europe, and China each with equal weight. But the defense structures have shifted. Is the growing dissonance between Europe and the USA a good or a bad thing? Are we moving into a multipolar world with no singular superpower focus? Is this European -US alliance still essential to world stability?
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