Sharp slowdown in US job growth

Ninja Turtles

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Sharp slowdown in US job growth

The US economy has recorded the smallest rise in employment in 21 months during May, new figures show.

Just 78,000 people entered the workforce that month, the Department of Labor said - far fewer than the 185,000 predicted by analysts.
 

Doctrine1st

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zoink said:
Why the pessimism. The title could just as easily be: "United states at lowest unemployment since September 2001."

We are below the estimated natural rate of unemployment. What do people expect?

Sincerely,
zoink
The way unemployment is measured, the only thing it's doing is creating jobs for those who keep track of it.
 
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Borealis

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zoink said:
Why the pessimism. The title could just as easily be: "United states at lowest unemployment since September 2001."

We are below the estimated natural rate of unemployment. What do people expect?

Sincerely,
zoink

Ah, but that would be a positive outlook on job growth, which is only legal if there is a Democrat in the White House to take the credit.

78,000 more jobs? That's pretty good, really. Sure, it's not 150,000. But it's a lot better than 78,000 FEWER jobs, isn't it?

The following list is an amalgam of stats found from different web sites, including the Bureau of Labor; so far, I haven't found a complied list anywhere. If someone can find a more accurate list, feel free to correct this one.

May 2005: 78000
Apr 2005: 274000
Mar 2005: 146000
Feb 2005: 243000
Jan 2005: 132000
Dec 2004: 133000
Nov 2004: 137000
Oct 2004: 303000
Sep 2004: 139000
Aug 2004: 128000
July 2004: 73000
Jun 2004: 78000
12 month total: 1864000

May 2004: 235000
Apr 2004: 346000
Mar 2004: 308000 (unrevised)
Feb 2004: 46000

Here's something funny I found while compiling these numbers. Check out these headlines from CNN (the number in brackets is the unrevised number of new jobs created):

Strong job growth in April easily tops Wall Street forecasts (274000)
March employment report falls well short of forecast (110000)
February job gains top forecases but unemployment up (262000)
Job growth again disappoints Wall Street's forecasts (146000)
Jobs growth picks up but still misses forecasts (157000)
November job growth comes in far below forecasts (112000)
Job growth soars in October (337000)
September job growth weaker than forecast (96000)
Unemployment rate drops as job creation rebounds (144000)
Job growth weaker than expected (32000)
Job growth slowed dramatically in June (112000)
Job growth good for workers, but what about Wall Street? (248000)

A lot of negativity despite a consistent increase, isn't it?
 
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Doctrine1st

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"The US economy needs to create at least 150,000 jobs every month in order to keep pace with population growth, economists have estimated."

The year cycle that Borealis mentions achieves the above requirement exactly 3 times, while the headlines are appropiate in relation to the economic forecasts per month. Which means these aren't really "new jobs" above what would be normally needed.
 
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zoink

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Borealis said:
I haven't found a complied list anywhere. If someone can find a more accurate list, feel free to correct this one.
I have been searching for job growth data for the last two weeks, and you are farther along then me. Sites do not post there source data or if they do it is, BLS. While the BLS website has lots of information, it is horrific to find what you are looking for, and to actually work with it is even more of a pain.
Sincerely,
zoink
 
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Borealis

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Doctrine1st said:
"The US economy needs to create at least 150,000 jobs every month in order to keep pace with population growth, economists have estimated."

The year cycle that Borealis mentions achieves the above requirement exactly 3 times, while the headlines are appropiate in relation to the economic forecasts per month. Which means these aren't really "new jobs" above what would be normally needed.

Look at the total for the year; it's over 150000/month (1,800,000/year). Not by much, but it's there. Now, considering that the economy took a severe downward spiral after 9/11, I'd say that a year and a half of sustained growth would have to be considered a good sign.
 
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Borealis

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starchild said:
A sincere belief: If the news / statistics were good, they'd be very easy to find.

Not really. The statistics come from a government bureaucracy. Bureaucracies are functionally incapable of efficient dissemination of data, good or bad. It simply can't be done. So those of us who actually want to look at trends have to either wade through a mountain of gibberish disguised as statistics, or take a more roundabout route, as I did. It took me a ridiculously long time just to dig up those sixteen or so months worth of data.
 
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Doctrine1st

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Borealis said:
Look at the total for the year; it's over 150000/month (1,800,000/year). Not by much, but it's there. Now, considering that the economy took a severe downward spiral after 9/11, I'd say that a year and a half of sustained growth would have to be considered a good sign.
That is not enough to cover the normal population growth. Where are the "new" jobs created by the tax cuts?

But let's consider the 9/11 spiral. Thinking intuitively these are jobs lost in the after math of a single event. A lot of it the repercussions of the travel industry, airtravel, and the trickle down spiral of that industry, tourism, hotels, etc,. Which means time and consumer confidence would naturally cause a job rebound as we see it has as Airlines despite fuel costs are at full capacity. So if anything a lot of those "created" jobs given the natural course of events are even padding the numbers.
 
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Ninja Turtles

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9/11 is just an excuse for failed economic policy. The excuse can no longer be used, it's been several years now since the incident. It would make sense if the Northeast were greatly affected by the event, but to say the entire country, I'm sorry.

Again the article says a sharp slowdown, not a gradual slowdown.
 
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Vylo

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All I know is that when I came into my college, the employment rate after graduation was 100 % with at least enough employers to hire every one a second time. Now, when I talk to some my old engineering friends, many are unemployed. In my particular field, there were plenty of jobs when I first started my apprenticeship, but now I have spent 5 months searching for a job, to no avail. I have sent out so many resumes, I can barely remember to who they were now.

Lately I have heard talk about unemployement dropping, which makes me a little more optimistic, but I also hear that wages are dropping. It makes me wonder if I will be able to get a job sufficient to support myself.
 
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zoink

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Borealis said:
Now, considering that the economy took a severe downward spiral after 9/11, I'd say that a year and a half of sustained growth would have to be considered a good sign.
[font=&quot]September 11 hurt things and shoved the economic down turn a long and may have made it a little worse, but it was not responsible. The downturn began somewhere around the year 2000.

Sincerely,
zoink

[/font]
 
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zoink

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Ninja Turtles said:
an excuse for failed economic policy.
Recessions happen, and they always will happen, unless you can comunicate from the future, it is impossible to micromanage the economy to avoid them. Looking back we can make guesses and say Clinton could have prevented the downturn, but that is unfair.

Sincerely,
zoink
 
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zoink

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Vylo said:
All I know is that when I came into my college, the employment rate after graduation was 100 % with at least enough employers to hire every one a second time. Now, when I talk to some my old engineering friends, many are unemployed. In my particular field, there were plenty of jobs when I first started my apprenticeship, but now I have spent 5 months searching for a job, to no avail. I have sent out so many resumes, I can barely remember to who they were now.

Lately I have heard talk about unemployement dropping, which makes me a little more optimistic, but I also hear that wages are dropping. It makes me wonder if I will be able to get a job sufficient to support myself.

So you would have entered college about 6 years ago? That was an amazing trough in unemployment. We are unlikely to see those type of numbers anytime soon.

Real wage data has been one of my biggest pains to find.

Sincerely,
zoink
 
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Ninja Turtles

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zoink said:
Recessions happen, and they always will happen, unless you can comunicate from the future, it is impossible to micromanage the economy to avoid them. Looking back we can make guesses and say Clinton could have prevented the downturn, but that is unfair.

Sincerely,
zoink
I can understand you can't micromanage, but there were so many things done that just threw grease on the fire so it made the recession worse and also made recovery anemic. In addition, it messed with the finances of this country, which also affect the market.
 
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zoink

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Vylo said:
Yeah with the way the administration is running the economy into the ground, we are.
I was mainly referencing that the trough was well below the estimated natural rate of unemployment. I am not sure exactly what effect Bushes policies will have, I see stagnation or it getting worse, mainly because of the deficits he is running.

How specifically do you see him "running the economy into the ground?”

Sincerely,
zoink
 
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