Scientists say a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus appears to be more contagious than original

SelfSim

A non "-ist"
Jun 23, 2014
6,193
1,971
✟177,042.00
Faith
Humanist
Marital Status
Private
... The very existence of any viral material days or weeks after allegedly being "recovered" is a better thing to worry about. There's a woman here in Australia that seems to have a chronic relapsing disease for the last 60 days.
This article here describes this case:
Queensland's Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said authorities believed it was "most likely" that the woman contracted the virus in India and has had the condition ever since.
"She returned from India via Singapore two months ago and has now tested positive after developing some mild respiratory symptoms," Dr Young said.

"At this stage, we're not sure whether that is a persistent case or whether she's acquired it here.
The chances of acquiring it, locally, in Queensland, compared with Singapore or India, must be a zillion to one I would think .. given the extremely low infection numbers, the total population of Queensland (which is still in isolation) and the relative ease of follow-up contact tracing to eliminate the possibility there, too(?)
 
Upvote 0

Tanj

Redefined comfortable middle class
Mar 31, 2017
7,682
8,316
59
Australia
✟277,286.00
Country
Australia
Faith
Atheist
Marital Status
Married
I think these results were produced after culture testing(?)
(Ie, for others: the 'positive' matter did not grow up sufficiently in lab-cultured isolates/patient samples to be called an 'infectious load').

It's not a very clear article. They also couldn't culture from the 3 new people that were diagnosed.

Slightly better report is here:She continues:
I don't get it .. (for all the perfectly valid reasons you have provided).

I think the issue using vague words like "viral dead matter". It doesn't mean anything, and there's no evidence that it's correct.


Yes .. its hard to see how that could be explained by a lack of specivity or an over-sensitivity inherent in the PCR test itself? (Ie: your (a) above) - from what I've read on the PCR test, it either singles out the spike protein sequences, and the US version looks for parts of the actual viral RNA sequence ie: nucleus/capsid .. not envelope, (they also do other cross-checks to make sure its passing the right matter onto the amplification stage), I think, so its hard to see how non-infectious partial viral RNA could return a positive other than by way of the targetted infectious virion being still intact?

If you are interested it might be worth looking up exactly how the PCR reaction works. But in brief it involves exponential amplification of the source material, so 1 copy...2 copies...4 copies...8 copies. One of the weaknesses of such a system is minute contamination can cause a false positive. I did some work looking at foetal microbiome, and the results were routinely "finding" bacteria from adult skin...ie the hands of the lab staff performing the test.

Your (b) above, I suppose, depends on the lab culture process and what then determines an 'infectious' or 'non-infectious' viral load (I'm not sure how all that works at the moment).

Viral replication isn't always precise. Most viruses, especially enveloped ones. produce all sorts of mis assembled or partially assembled virions. When we measure viruses, The metric is ID50 (infectious dose, 50%) usually determined by serial dilution. The ratio between infectious does and physical particles is <insert some number here>
 
Upvote 0

Paulos23

Never tell me the odds!
Mar 23, 2005
8,172
4,443
Washington State
✟311,637.00
Country
United States
Faith
Atheist
Marital Status
Married
Politics
US-Others
Upvote 0

SelfSim

A non "-ist"
Jun 23, 2014
6,193
1,971
✟177,042.00
Faith
Humanist
Marital Status
Private
... If you are interested it might be worth looking up exactly how the PCR reaction works. But in brief it involves exponential amplification of the source material, so 1 copy...2 copies...4 copies...8 copies. One of the weaknesses of such a system is minute contamination can cause a false positive. I did some work looking at foetal microbiome, and the results were routinely "finding" bacteria from adult skin...ie the hands of the lab staff performing the test.
From what I've now read, it appears the selection criteria specified in any given PCR test, precisely guides what is ultimately 'found'. So, if I were to specify the entire SARS-CoV-2 genome, then finding that, if it is present in a given sample/isolate, is then possible .. (same again if I specify a single gene of it, etc).

Aside: an easy to read summary overview article example of how the PCR test works is here.

For Covid-19 PCR tests, there's a currently-not-fully-determined balance between the sensitivity (in terms of finding sufficient quantity of the sequence match of what is being searched for, amongst an expected quantity of contaminants) and the specificity (the precision of the sequence match itself). There are also a handful of different Covid-19 PCR tests. (For eg: the notoriously inaccurate US Whitehouse used rapid 'dry method' PCR test is discussed here).

Tanj said:
Viral replication isn't always precise. Most viruses, especially enveloped ones. produce all sorts of mis assembled or partially assembled virions. When we measure viruses, The metric is ID50 (infectious dose, 50%) usually determined by serial dilution. The ratio between infectious does and physical particles is <insert some number here>
Yes .. I see.
Along the same lines, I found an interesting paper here:
A Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus That Lacks the E Gene Is Attenuated In Vitro and In Vivo
These guys deliberately removed the envelop protein encoding gene from a natural SARS-Cov-1 coronavirus to see how it affected the infectious behaviour of the resultant. The finding was:
Although maximal virus titers reached by this defective virus were lower than those of the recombinant wild-type virus, the ΔE virus infected different cell lines, indicating that E protein is important but not essential for SARS-CoV replication. This rSARS-CoV-ΔE virus was attenuated in vivo, making it a safer research tool and a promising vaccine candidate.
(They don't appear to have been working in the Wuhan labs either .. they seem to be European based researchers).

So, in a hypothetical instance where a Coronavius may have been stripped of its envelop, it is still capable of infecting certain cells. I'm not saying this explains why some people 'get hit harder' whilst others don't with Covid-19, but this study certainly provides some relevant evidence showing how this is possible (alongside other equally valid and not necessarily exclusive hypothetical infection possibilities, also).
 
Upvote 0

Tanj

Redefined comfortable middle class
Mar 31, 2017
7,682
8,316
59
Australia
✟277,286.00
Country
Australia
Faith
Atheist
Marital Status
Married
From what I've now read, it appears the selection criteria specified in any given PCR test, precisely guides what is ultimately 'found'. So, if I were to specify the entire SARS-CoV-2 genome, then finding that, if it is present in a given sample/isolate, is then possible .. (same again if I specify a single gene of it, etc).

Well...no, you can't specify the entire genome. Diagnostic RT-PCR is limited to a few hundred bp...maybe the low thousands. CV is a 30kb virus. At any rate as I said earlier, it's only "precise" under the correct conditions. In the event of contamination or inaccuracies in component concentrations mis priming can occur to generate false positives. And RT-PCR is alot more prone to error than just PCR...as you pointed out in part in the next section I am not quoting.



So, in a hypothetical instance where a Coronavius may have been stripped of its envelop, it is still capable of infecting certain cells.

Ahh....no, that's not what happened. The E (envelope) gene is not the lipid bilayer envelope around the outside of the virus, it's a (probably k+) ion channel that's a part of the viral replication, which sits in the envelope.

You'll note in the paper you cited it said:
"Although both viruses showed the same morphology by electron microscopy"

Missing an envelope is about as far removed from "same morphology" as it's possible to get.

I'm not saying this explains why some people 'get hit harder' whilst others don't with Covid-19, but this study certainly provides some relevant evidence showing how this is possible (alongside other equally valid and not necessarily exclusive hypothetical infection possibilities, also).

Not sure what you are saying here, but I am assuming it has something to do with your confusing the E protein with the actual viral envelope?
 
  • Informative
Reactions: SelfSim
Upvote 0

SelfSim

A non "-ist"
Jun 23, 2014
6,193
1,971
✟177,042.00
Faith
Humanist
Marital Status
Private
Well...no, you can't specify the entire genome. Diagnostic RT-PCR is limited to a few hundred bp...maybe the low thousands. CV is a 30kb virus.
Yep, ok .. I agree that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is too big for RT-PCR to decode the entire genome ( .. my bad).
I was incorrectly recalling this study about how they used an RT-PCR System to generate genome sequences, (not the entire genome directly .. as I recollected), of the Foot and Mouth Virus (which is only about 8.3kb in length):
The generation of whole-genome sequences enables phylogenetic characterisation, the epidemiological tracing of virus transmission pathways and is supportive in disease control strategies. This study describes the development and validation of a rapid, universal and cost-efficient RT-PCR system to generate genome sequences of FMDV, reaching from the IRES to the end of the open reading frame.
The SARS-CoV-2 genome decode evidently involved the use of 'metagenomics analysis using next-generation sequencing (NGS)' (ie: a different process/technology):
As a CoV lab, we first used pan-CoV PCR primers to test these samples13, considering the outbreak happened in winter and in a market, same environment as SARS. We found five PCR positive. A sample (WIV04) collected from bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) was analysed by metagenomics analysis using next-generation sequencing (NGS) to identify potential etiological agents. Of the 1582 total reads obtained after human genome filtering, 1378 (87.1%) matched sequences of SARSr-CoV.
A nice explanation of how this works is here.

Tanj said:
At any rate as I said earlier, it's only "precise" under the correct conditions. In the event of contamination or inaccuracies in component concentrations mis priming can occur to generate false positives. And RT-PCR is alot more prone to error than just PCR...
Yes .. and thus such 'false positives', (as far as the infection potential is concerned), still remains as a viable explanation for 'positive' (PCR-RT) results for recovering patients(?) - Ie: partial protein sequences, once amplified, might provide partial match-ups with SARS-CoV-2 sequences, and thus register as 'positives' .. but I'm not sure how this could happen where the immune system initiated the apoptosis process .. its hard to find what happens to virion molecules after they've gone through this process - are they recognisable afterwards?

Tanj said:
Ahh....no, that's not what happened. The E (envelope) gene is not the lipid bilayer envelope around the outside of the virus, it's a (probably k+) ion channel that's a part of the viral replication, which sits in the envelope.
Uh .. ok .. my understanding is that the E gene produces the E protein in the envelope, which was thought to be be 'an essential' for the CoV virus to gain access to the inside of a host cell(?) This study shows that's not necessarily the case and so, a partially functional virus, with a gene artificially deleted, can still cause infection and penetrate the cell membrane (by other means).

Tanj said:
You'll note in the paper you cited it said:
"Although both viruses showed the same morphology by electron microscopy"

Missing an envelope is about as far removed from "same morphology" as it's possible to get.
I was thinking of a particularly infectious part (functionally) of the envelope .. not the entire envelope - (my mistake).

Tanj said:
Not sure what you are saying here, but I am assuming it has something to do with your confusing the E protein with the actual viral envelope?
What I mentioned above .. ie: 'a partially functional virus, with a gene artificially deleted, can still cause infection and penetrate the cell membrane (by other means)'.
The infection rate, with that gene deleted, also looks to be slower and more targetted at specific cells too (ie: less infectious?). I'm wondering if this may be a partial explanation for why some people seem to have more 'severe infection' than others(?) (Apart from different levels of viral loads different people may encounter when becoming infected?)
 
Upvote 0

Tanj

Redefined comfortable middle class
Mar 31, 2017
7,682
8,316
59
Australia
✟277,286.00
Country
Australia
Faith
Atheist
Marital Status
Married
Yep, ok .. I agree that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is too big for RT-PCR to decode the entire genome ( .. my bad).
I was incorrectly recalling this study about how they used an RT-PCR System to generate genome sequences, (not the entire genome directly .. as I recollected), of the Foot and Mouth Virus (which is only about 8.3kb in length):

Right, which is why I started that sentence with "diagnostic RT-PCR". There's all sorts of shotgun or tiling approaches to full length sequencing, but they are too expensive, time consuming, non-scalable and, well, pointless, from a diagnostic perspective.

The metagenomics thing is a bit of an esoteric red herring for this conversation. It basically means sequencing all of the organisms in a biosample, then using bioinformatics to tease out what organisms were present.

Yes .. and thus such 'false positives', (as far as the infection potential is concerned), still remains as a viable explanation for 'positive' (PCR-RT) results for recovering patients(?) - Ie: partial protein sequences, once amplified, might provide partial match-ups with SARS-CoV-2 sequences, and thus register as 'positives'

Firstly, this is all R/DNA. We aren't amplifying, measuring or doing anything at all with proteins (antibody tests aside). Secondly, (I don't know the full details of the tests but) we are not doing any matching of the product, we are just asking "is there a product". Which is to say measuring the presence of DNA after the RT-PCR..or indeed during the PCR reaction via something like UV light absorbance at 260-280nm, or more likely the dequenching of fluorophores.

TaqMan - Wikipedia

.. but I'm not sure how this could happen where the immune system initiated the apoptosis process .. its hard to find what happens to virion molecules after they've gone through this process - are they recognisable afterwards?

Virions are particles, not molecules. Cov2 looks like a spikey soccer ball dipped in lard. And getting out of an apoptopic cell is probably a bit like flying an x-wing out of an exploding death star.

Anyway, once they're out they don't fly wings and fly away, they just, like, hang around. Given for this disease they tend to form at the bottom of the lung but the test collects material from the nose, one might argue there's a delay between virion formation and expulsion...at least in the absence of coughing.

Uh .. ok .. my understanding is that the E gene produces the E protein in the envelope, which was thought to be be 'an essential' for the CoV virus to gain access to the inside of a host cell(?) This study shows that's not necessarily the case and so, a partially functional virus, with a gene artificially deleted, can still cause infection and penetrate the cell membrane (by other means).

Well...it's obviously not essential in this case. Previous studies have shown that it is essential for some coronaviruses and not for others. But regardless this has absolutely nothing to do with the topic of false positives, or positives after recovery, or any of the other stuff we were discussing.

I was thinking of a particularly infectious part (functionally) of the envelope .. not the entire envelope - (my mistake).

E gene is an ion channel that allows ions (usually K+ or Na+) to enter the virion to trigger conformational change as a part of the viral uncoating during the virus life cycle (at a guess, I haven't looked that up). Don't read too much into the fact it's call the "envelope protein".

What I mentioned above .. ie: 'a partially functional virus, with a gene artificially deleted, can still cause infection and penetrate the cell membrane (by other means)'.


I'm not aware of the mutant virus using "other means". Given it replicates at 100 to 1000 lower levels than the wild type, it's more likely it uses exactly the same means, just no where near as well. If it is, as I refuse to check, an ion channel driving conformation change, that would fit the evidence.


The infection rate, with that gene deleted, also looks to be slower and more targetted at specific cells too (ie: less infectious?). I'm wondering if this may be a partial explanation for why some people seem to have more 'severe infection' than others(?) (Apart from different levels of viral loads different people may encounter when becoming infected?)

It isn't. The mutant is 100 to 1000 times less effective. It would be like sending the New York Yankees (the wild type virus) out to bat against the Springfields Under 5 B team. Any virus that badly adapted relative to wildtype will be out competed and gone, unless there was a selective pressure that made the mutant survive better, which is why anyone that actually wants to understand evolution should read about the development of DDT resistance in fruit files. What we are seeing with COVID19 is entirely a wild type virus versus varying immune systems and comorbidities, not pockets of oddly deleted virus.

Also, we are doing a heck of a lot of full genome sequencing. If there was a deletion mutant out there, we'd have found it.
 
Upvote 0

SelfSim

A non "-ist"
Jun 23, 2014
6,193
1,971
✟177,042.00
Faith
Humanist
Marital Status
Private
And yet another mystery case (on top of the similar one from India just last week):
Queensland woman linked to Ruby Princess likely carried coronavirus for 10 weeks
.. A passenger of the Ruby Princess who tested positive to coronavirus is suspected to have carried the "dormant" virus for almost 10 weeks before falling ill.
The woman was diagnosed in Cairns on Monday, taking the total number of Queensland cases to 1057, with just 12 remaining active.
Authorities suspect she is the latest coronavirus case to have carried the inactive virus and become sick weeks after exposure.
...
A spokesperson for the health minister said the woman had returned a negative result after a recent test and it was not possible she was contagious since she left the ship on March 19.
I might add that it looks as though there are no other known cases in Cairns(?)

What is going on here?
'Carried the dormant virus for 10 weeks before falling ill'???
Are they serious?

If the report wasn't quoting from the 'health authorities', it would be justified to just dismiss it as just bungled reporting!?

Soo much faith in 'true' PCR test results(?) That can't be .. because she also appears to have become sick (clinically diagnosed)! Also it'd be a bit hard to believe they wouldn't have analysed this case in a more rigorous lab testing environment before making the above statements?
 
Last edited:
Upvote 0

Tanj

Redefined comfortable middle class
Mar 31, 2017
7,682
8,316
59
Australia
✟277,286.00
Country
Australia
Faith
Atheist
Marital Status
Married
And yet another mystery case (on top of the similar one from India just last week):
Queensland woman linked to Ruby Princess likely carried coronavirus for 10 weeks
I might add that it looks as though there are no other known cases in Cairns(?)

What is going on here?
'Carried the dormant virus for 10 weeks before falling ill'???
Are they serious?

If the report wasn't quoting from the 'health authorities', it would be justified to just dismiss it as just bungled reporting!?

Soo much faith in 'true' PCR test results(?) That can't be .. because she also appears to have become sick (clinically diagnosed)! Also it'd be a bit hard to believe they wouldn't have analysed this case in a more rigorous lab testing environment before making the above statements?

In my opinion, what you are seeing here is people who mount almost no humoral response at all, and go through innate immunity boom bust cycles turning it into a chronic disease. I have no evidence to support my theory beyond the reported observations.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SelfSim
Upvote 0
This site stays free and accessible to all because of donations from people like you.
Consider making a one-time or monthly donation. We appreciate your support!
- Dan Doughty and Team Christian Forums

SelfSim

A non "-ist"
Jun 23, 2014
6,193
1,971
✟177,042.00
Faith
Humanist
Marital Status
Private
In my opinion, what you are seeing here is people who mount almost no humoral response at all, and go through innate immunity boom bust cycles turning it into a chronic disease. I have no evidence to support my theory beyond the reported observations.
Hmm .. seems reasonable, given the scant details in the report. Is there past case evidence elsewhere of this phenomenon?

I wish there was more info. Answers for the following would be interesting:

i) How did she/they produce negative RT-PCR results? Perhaps when the tests were taken, the disease was no longer evident via upper respiratory tract sampling (nasopharyngeal sampling fail here)? I suppose the infectious dose proportion could have been below 'positive' thresholds here, too, although the sensitivity of RT-PCR testing seems rarely challenged (ie: the opposite; over-sensitive, seems to be more likely the case).

ii) If (i) is so, then maybe her/their case would seem to be a new type of 'Covid-19 Manchurian Candidate', (ie: as far as her potential for spreading infection amongst others is concerned)?

iii) Her prognosis, in terms of her/their own recovery looks fairly bleak (eg: permanent lung damage etc .. although maybe the fact they eventually displayed symptoms is a good sign for them(?)
 
Upvote 0

Tanj

Redefined comfortable middle class
Mar 31, 2017
7,682
8,316
59
Australia
✟277,286.00
Country
Australia
Faith
Atheist
Marital Status
Married
Hmm .. seems reasonable, given the scant details in the report. Is there past case evidence elsewhere of this phenomenon?

I wish there was more info. Answers for the following would be interesting:

i) How did she/they produce negative RT-PCR results? Perhaps when the tests were taken, the disease was no longer evident via upper respiratory tract sampling (nasopharyngeal sampling fail here)? I suppose the infectious dose proportion could have been below 'positive' thresholds here, too, although the sensitivity of RT-PCR testing seems rarely challenged (ie: the opposite; over-sensitive, seems to be more likely the case).

ii) If (i) is so, then maybe her/their case would seem to be a new type of 'Covid-19 Manchurian Candidate', (ie: as far as her potential for spreading infection amongst others is concerned)?

iii) Her prognosis, in terms of her/their own recovery looks fairly bleak (eg: permanent lung damage etc .. although maybe the fact they eventually displayed symptoms is a good sign for them(?)

No idea. One more reason not to get this virus.
 
Upvote 0

SelfSim

A non "-ist"
Jun 23, 2014
6,193
1,971
✟177,042.00
Faith
Humanist
Marital Status
Private
No idea. One more reason not to get this virus.
Problem is though from a realistic viewpoint, I think most of us seemed destined to get it sooner or later(?)

The idea that a vaccine will save us, (IMO), imposes a context/environment which puts scientific research, itself, in major jeopardy. I understand that vaccine research into coronviruses has been ongoing for about 15 years or so now, and up until SARS-Cov-2, no vaccine has been yielded from that research. (Although, that time investment may work for or against the production of one, I suppose).
 
Upvote 0

SelfSim

A non "-ist"
Jun 23, 2014
6,193
1,971
✟177,042.00
Faith
Humanist
Marital Status
Private
Tanj said:
In my opinion, what you are seeing here is people who mount almost no humoral response at all, and go through innate immunity boom bust cycles turning it into a chronic disease. I have no evidence to support my theory beyond the reported observations.
Another question here is:

iv) Wouldn't antibody testing (Ig) pretty well immediately add some weight (or refute) this hypothesis? (Surely they would have done this already .. yet another lingering question for the 'Health Authorities' is what/where are the results?)
 
Upvote 0

Lyrasong

Newbie
Oct 3, 2012
62
35
✟16,350.00
Country
United States
Faith
Christian Seeker
Marital Status
Married
Given the US is at 29k new cases per day, they more than anywhere need a track and trace app that warns if you've been in contact with anyone that turns out to have it. It's just a record of anonymous digital records of Bluetooth handshakes - no privacy concerns. It's less worrisome than using Siri or Google Maps which track your actual location!
Track and trace, and test test test! The US will need to scale up to 20 million tests per day to beat this. Then get sick people into quarantine, maybe even with electronic tagging if people are not co-operating! You cannot enjoy civil liberties if you're dead.

How, exactly, would this “track and trace” app work? Would it let you know if you had been exposed to Covid-19 when shopping at the grocery store, for example?

Not sure what electronic tagging would entail, but it doesn’t sound good.

Unfortunately, many who become severely ill from Covid-19 may be people who have tried to follow the rules and be safe.
 
Upvote 0
This site stays free and accessible to all because of donations from people like you.
Consider making a one-time or monthly donation. We appreciate your support!
- Dan Doughty and Team Christian Forums

Tanj

Redefined comfortable middle class
Mar 31, 2017
7,682
8,316
59
Australia
✟277,286.00
Country
Australia
Faith
Atheist
Marital Status
Married
Problem is though from a realistic viewpoint, I think most of us seemed destined to get it sooner or later(?)

Too many variables to give a meaningful response. It is an outcome, but given that all other coronaviruses result in short term immunity that wanes, this particular realistic view should be "destined to get it over and over again"

Another question here is:

iv) Wouldn't antibody testing (Ig) pretty well immediately add some weight (or refute) this hypothesis?

For this woman, yes it would. As to whether they did it, well, beyond evidencing my hypothesis there's no reason to do so. We know she has the virus.

How, exactly, would this “track and trace” app work? Would it let you know if you had been exposed to Covid-19 when shopping at the grocery store, for example?

Well the Australian version has no geolocation. So it keeps track of all human beings that have the app that you were within 6' of for more than 15 minutes, and has absolutely no idea when in the day or where that happened.
 
Upvote 0

Nithavela

our world is happy and mundane
Apr 14, 2007
28,134
19,581
Comb. Pizza Hut and Taco Bell/Jamaica Avenue.
✟493,565.00
Country
Germany
Faith
Other Religion
Marital Status
Single
No man. Oil is going to be worthless. Arms dealing is the way to go.
ml1ChMU.jpg
 
Upvote 0
This site stays free and accessible to all because of donations from people like you.
Consider making a one-time or monthly donation. We appreciate your support!
- Dan Doughty and Team Christian Forums