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Sanders is doomed.

Discussion in 'General Politics' started by OldWiseGuy, Feb 13, 2020.

  1. OldWiseGuy

    OldWiseGuy Wake me when it's soup. Supporter

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    Just learned that Sanders has huge support among the 18-24 year olds. Unfortunately for him this group has the poorest voting turnout record. While they like the idea of all the free stuff they have trouble getting to the polls on election day. So 'polling' strong before the election doesn't necessarily mean polling strong on election day.
     
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  2. Hazelelponi

    Hazelelponi Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Labor unions arent backing him.. at all at all..
     
  3. ChristianForCats

    ChristianForCats Saved by Christ

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    If you are only basing that comment on their lack of donations, it is because Bernie Sanders hates unions doing that as part of his opposition to "the establishment." So you can safely ignore that claim because in fact he loves unions.
     
  4. Mountainmanbob

    Mountainmanbob Goat Whisperer Supporter

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  5. Credos4Christ

    Credos4Christ 7 days without prayer makes 1 weak.

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    This seems like an odd angle to argue from.

    If anything I'd say the socialism sullying Sanders's economic policies is what'll really gut his campaign.

    In terms of young people voting? The 2018 midterms yielded record-highs for voters aged 18-29 at 36% (up from 20% in 2014), which was the largest increase for any voter age group.

    According to the U.S Elections Project, that was our highest overall turnout (at 49.2% of the eligible voting population) at any time since 1914.

    In 2020, many more first-time eligible voters, energized by the recent droves of youth activism—on issues ranging from gun control to climate change—will no doubt turn out in higher numbers as a passionate act of civic engagement.

    But, ultimately, Bernie's appeal may flounder in a hypothetical general race when moderates get a whiff of his socialist economic policies.
     
  6. OldWiseGuy

    OldWiseGuy Wake me when it's soup. Supporter

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    And if the moderates coalesce around one candidate. Together the mods have more support than the progressives. A fact being pointed out in the media every day. I'm sure it's not lost on any of the candidates.
     
  7. The Barbarian

    The Barbarian Crabby Old White Guy

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  8. Redwingfan9

    Redwingfan9 Well-Known Member

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    I think it's a fools errand to compare numbers from Presidential election elections with midterm elections. They yield different voting groups, almost without exception. So while young people may have gotten to the polls in a higher than normal percentage of voters, in a presidential election it's far more likely that older voters will show up and depress the youth vote.

    At this point if Sanders is the dem nominee I would expect Trump to win fairly easily. There are moderate voters out there who can't stand Trump but will takenthe devil they know over the socialist so long as the economy remains hot.
     
  9. Credos4Christ

    Credos4Christ 7 days without prayer makes 1 weak.

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    I'm not sure if I necessarily agree with this assessment.

    Starting with the 2012 presidential election, youth voter turnout was a significant fraction of the voter base. Some even called it "decisive". In 2016, the number of youth voters turning out their votes increased. By the midterms, that number was even higher. Young people are being energized. Again, not only in terms of presidential elections, but in terms of civic engagement at large. The millennial generation is highly political, and generation z is as well.

    Insofar as a Bernie vs. Trump election is concerned, it really has the potential to be an upset for democrats. Because even though young people are starting to mobilize as voters, the simple reality is voters 65 and older still account for a larger share of voters, and they will vote down socialism.
     
  10. Redwingfan9

    Redwingfan9 Well-Known Member

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    The millenials are starting to push 40 now. They're behaving like most generations, they're getting more conservative and Republican as they get older. Generation Z has some strong conservative elements to it, including a pro-life bent that is unusual for young folks. They're divided of course, there is a very loud minority that is socialist but there is also a silent group that tends towards the Republicans, perhaps in rebellion against the relentlessl eft-wing bent of the education they've received. We'll see how this plays out over time.
     
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  11. Credos4Christ

    Credos4Christ 7 days without prayer makes 1 weak.

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    This simply isn't true, at least in regard to millennial voters.

    A glut of voters in that age range are actually increasing their support of democrats, according to Pew Research data and interpretation. In 2002, millennial voters (1981-1996) were 33% democrat, 34% independent and 27% republican. In 2017, they were 35% democrat, 44% independent and 17% republican. Since then, their support of democrats has grown — up to 59%. This gives democrats a "27- percentage-point advantage" over republicans among millennial voters.

    It's nigh-impossible to gauge generation z voters, though. They haven't had a chance to vote in a presidential election, only the midterms.

    Yes there are pro-life bents among young people. But scrums of young people also support progressive policies. Millennials by and large support Medicare for All, Bernie Sanders's healthcare policy. Two-thirds of the nation supports a federal minimum wage increase (thanks, in part, to millennial voters), 62% support rigorous environmental policy, and, additionally, raising taxes and tuition-free public college are on their radar as well.
     
  12. Redwingfan9

    Redwingfan9 Well-Known Member

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    Those statistics are misleading in that a significant group of millenials weren't eligible to vote in 2002, itself a year that was very pro-Republican due to 911. Most came of age by 2008 which was an anti-Republican year. If anything these numbers are pretty typical for 20 somethings. The question is what are the older millennials doing and in that they're drifting towards Republicans as they get married and have children. You'll see hard statistics on this in the next couple elections.
     
  13. Credos4Christ

    Credos4Christ 7 days without prayer makes 1 weak.

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    You do raise a good point. There was certainly dramatic support for Bush jr. in post-9/11 America. The country also threw its stock into the Iraq War. But by 2007 the economy was in free-fall, the Bush tax cuts were wearing people down, and mistrust in government handling of Iraq and citizens' privacy left Washington a grim place for republicans.

    We'll have to see what the data show in the next few election cycles, but as of now I haven't seen millennial support of progressive policies waver. In fact it's continued to increase.
     
  14. Redwingfan9

    Redwingfan9 Well-Known Member

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    I've seen the opposite with the older millennials, who are now pushing 40. They are slowly shifting right. The ones in their 20's aren't there yet, which is one of the reasons why creating generations for demographic purposes is so stupid. There's a massive difference between the average 25 year old and the average 40 year old but they're the same generation according to demographers.
     
  15. hedrick

    hedrick Senior Veteran Supporter

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    I don't think predictions at this stage are very likely to be right. Sanders as a nominee would energize large groups, and likely increase their turnout for elections. Also, I've seen claims that many Sanders supporters voted for Trump last time, maybe even enough to have decided the election.

    It used to be that both parties thought using a moderate was a winning approach. I'm no longer sure that it really is. Personally I'd prefer a moderate candidate, but I'm not so convinced that Sanders would be a loser.
     
  16. hedrick

    hedrick Senior Veteran Supporter

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    We're also in an odd place with respect to experience. Anyone with actual experience governing is going to have done things that are open to attack. Both Bloomberg and Buttigieg are going to run into problems. We may be better off with someone who has been in government, but not a governor or mayor, who will have a record that will come back and haunt them. In reality we'd be better off with real experience, even if they made mistakes or did things that didn't work out. But with people voting more against than for, I think anyone with experience may be at a disadvantage. That points to Sanders and Klobuchar I suspect, of the top runners.
     
  17. Albion

    Albion Facilitator

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    If they want a candidate who has been in Congress for a long time and accomplished almost nothing that anyone can name, that would be Sanders, all right.

    The main difficulty for Democrats may be that although they started with a large field of candidates, it's very hard to point to even one among them who had been a true leader on the national stage before announcing for the presidency.
     
  18. hedrick

    hedrick Senior Veteran Supporter

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    Bloomberg is probably the best, but he has a problem with stop and frisk.
     
  19. ChristianForCats

    ChristianForCats Saved by Christ

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    This is a sign people voted for Bernie Sanders because they hate Hillary Clinton more than Donald Trump. I know for a fact that happened. It is one reason new voters would help Sanders more than their parents.
    When Joe Biden was the favorite, I assumed he has the best chance against Trump among independents, moderates, and third party voters because he is much more like them than far-left Sanders and Elizabeth Warren - opposing single-payer health care, free college, the wealth tax, and more. I was right that Biden will attract older voters because they are less likely to support Democratic socialism than college students (see Iowa State). There is no denying age is the most important factor.
     
  20. hedrick

    hedrick Senior Veteran Supporter

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    Perhaps, but Sanders also has cultlike following. Most of the other nominees don’t inspire his level of enthusiasm. That matters. I’m actually fairly enthusiastic about a Buttigieg, but I’m not sure how common that is. I didn’t know Klobuchar until recently, but I think I could get enthusiastic about her. Biden, yawn. Bloomberg, yuck.
     
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